1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 36.5–44.5 ✕

When did they go over?

380 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 36.5–44.5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games380100%By halftime82%In Q36116%In Q412433%In OT72%Stayed under18047%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands4311%Over cashed5113%Leader lost the game359%
53% went over. Of the 200 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

All 380 games

2023–2026 · Totals 36.5–44.5 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 7
 UCLA -1.5 42.5 3101724 U UCLA Q1 7–17
2026 · Week 7
 OU -7 44.5 10172034 U UK Q1 21–13
2026 · Week 7
 NDSU -14.5 42.5 0304148 Q4 NEV Q1 17–31
2026 · Week 7
 MICH -6 43.5 331739 U PSU Q4 18–21
2026 · Week 7
 WYO -7 42.5 10264464 Q3 WYO Q1 23–41
2026 · Week 7
 WMU -7.5 42.5 7142135 U CMU Q4
Late cover flip
 21–14
2026 · Week 7
 BUFF -6.5 43.5 1023303643 U BUFF OT
Late cover flip
 18–25
2026 · Week 7
 PITT -6.5 42.5 19263948 Q4 BC Q1 21–27
2026 · Week 7
 GASO -3 44.5 14233038 U GASO Q2 23–15
2026 · Week 7
 JXST -3 44.5 21344851 Q3 Push
Late cover flip
 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 TEX -7.5 40.5 7242751 Q4 OU Q3 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 WMU -13.5 43.5 7283145 Q4 WMU Q2
Late over
 7–38
2026 · Week 6
 M-OH -6 44.5 21242739 U MASS Q4
Late cover flip
 20–19
2026 · Week 6
 BGSU -9.5 43.5 3202748 Q4 BGSU Q2 10–38
2026 · Week 6
 WASH -3 41.5 13305265 Q3 IOWA Q1 41–24
2026 · Week 6
 USU -4 44.5 6192633 U WSU Q1 16–17
2026 · Week 6
 SJSU -4.5 42.5 313192629 U WYO Q4 16–13
2026 · Week 5
 WSU -2.5 44.5 3121932 U FRES Q1 26–6
2026 · Week 5
 NDSU -17.5 44.5 7172028 U NDSU Q3 0–28
2026 · Week 5
 M-OH -10.5 41.5 0161944 Q4 BGSU Q1
Late over
 24–20
2026 · Week 5
 WIS -8.5 43.5 14202734 U WIS Q1 3–31
2026 · Week 5
 MICH -6.5 41.5 7212434 U MINN Q3 14–20
2026 · Week 4
 WASH -12.5 44.5 14313451 Q4 MINN Q1
Late over
 27–24
2026 · Week 4
 FRES -12.5 43.5 7314162 Q4 FRES Q4 24–38
2026 · Week 4
 JMU -7 44.5 24475366 Q2 JMU Q1 46–20
2026 · Week 4
 PSU -9.5 43.5 3243044 Q4 WIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 24–20
2026 · Week 4
 UGA -11.5 43.5 7283754 Q4 UGA Q2 13–41
2026 · Week 4
 MICH -4.5 39.5 14172039 U IOWA Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 20–19
2026 · Week 4
 HAW -2.5 44.5 6161637 U WYO Q1 10–27
2026 · Week 3
 WMU -8.5 43.5 7212849 Q4 RICE Q1
Late over
 28–21
2026 · Week 3
 WYO -1.5 39.5 3172734 U CMU Q1 10–24
2026 · Week 3
 WIS -23.5 43.5 10384864 Q3 WIS Q2 10–54
2026 · Week 3
 ISU -22.5 43.5 28425262 Q3 ISU Q2 7–55
2026 · Week 3
 CLEM -3 44.5 17233248 Q4 CLEM Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 20–28
2026 · Week 2
 FRES -17.5 43.5 0324952 Q3 FRES Q2 3–49
2026 · Week 2
 IOWA -14 42.5 0202329 U ISU Q1 13–16
UNCO @ WYO
2026 · Week 2
 WYO -23.5 44.5 0172034 U UNCO Q1
Lead lost
 13–21
2026 · Week 2
 OU -5.5 43.5 7101727 U MICH Q1 10–17
2026 · Week 1
 IOWA -31.5 44.5 20334040 U IOWA Q2 0–40
2025 · Postseason
 OSU -7.5 39.5 0142438 U MIA Q1 24–14
2025 · Postseason
 HOU -1.5 43.5 21354973 Q3 HOU Q2 35–38
2025 · Postseason
 MIZ -4 43.5 7102020 U UVA Q3 13–7
2025 · Postseason
 FRES -5.5 40.5 3121221 U FRES Q2 3–18
2025 · Postseason
 ARMY -7.5 41.5 14243757 Q4 ARMY Q3 16–41
2025 · Postseason
 MINN -1.5 44.5 313132837 U MINN OT
Late cover flip
 17–20
2025 · Postseason
 NU -13.5 43.5 0213441 U NU Q2 7–34
2025 · Postseason
 LOU -11.5 44.5 10101749 Q4 TOL Q1
Late over
 22–27
2025 · Postseason
 OU -2.5 42.5 10344458 Q3 ALA Q2 34–24
2025 · Week 16
 NAVY -6 37.5 7202633 U ARMY Q2 16–17
2025 · Week 15
 WMU -2.5 44.5 16222936 U WMU Q1 13–23
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 380

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 180
Q2 19% 71
Q3 14% 54
Q4 17% 63
OT 1% 5
Push 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 74% of 349 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 77% of 353 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over69100% 69
1–31995% 18
4–74687% 40
8–103453% 18
11–144556% 25
15–174536% 16
18–214821% 10
22+745% 4
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.