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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

51 games · 2025 · Week 11 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games51100%By halftime00%In Q3714%In Q41733%In OT12%Stayed under2651%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands918%Over cashed816%Leader lost the game612%
49% went over. Of the 25 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

All 51 games

2025 · Week 11 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2025 · Week 11
 SDSU -6.5 47.5 17304444 U HAW Q1 6–38
2025 · Week 11
 ORST -21.5 52.5 10243138 U SHSU Q1 21–17
2025 · Week 11
 UNLV -4.5 61.5 7314552 U UNLV Q2 42–10
2025 · Week 11
 UCLA -2.5 45.5 7284249 Q4 NEB Q1
Late over
 28–21
2025 · Week 11
 ALA -10.5 49.5 3202329 U ALA Q2
Late cover flip
 9–20
2025 · Week 11
 ND -30.5 54.5 7315259 Q4 ND Q3 10–49
2025 · Week 11
 FLA -5.5 44.5 10313845 Q4 UK Q1 7–38
2025 · Week 11
 USU -9.5 52.5 24415565 Q3 USU Q1 14–51
2025 · Week 11
 UVA -7.5 48.5 3162225 U WAKE Q1 16–9
2025 · Week 11
 LOU -18.5 49.5 1430434655 OT CAL Q1
Late over
 29–26
2025 · Week 11
 CLEM -1.5 57.5 8252834 U CLEM Q1 10–24
2025 · Week 11
 SJSU -6.5 68.5 3192242 U AFA Q1 26–16
2025 · Week 11
 TXST -3.5 63.5 17525581 Q4 UL Q1 39–42
2025 · Week 11
 WASH -10.5 44.5 0132323 U WIS Q1 10–13
2025 · Week 11
 UNC -8.5 41.5 361335 U STAN Q1
Late cover flip
 15–20
2025 · Week 11
 VAN -5.5 46.5 730547683 Q3 VAN OT
Late cover flip
 38–45
2025 · Week 11
 KENN -11.5 52.5 17313145 U NMSU Q4 24–21
2025 · Week 11
 CCU -7.5 56.5 28374767 Q4 CCU Q2 27–40
2025 · Week 11
 TA&M -6.5 48.5 7143155 Q4 TA&M Q1
Late over
 38–17
2025 · Week 11
 ORE -4.5 42.5 2192234 U IOWA Q4
Late cover flip
 18–16
2025 · Week 11
 MIA -28.5 47.5 0143448 Q4 SYR Q1
Late over
 10–38
2025 · Week 11
 DUKE -7.5 62.5 17345171 Q4 CONN Q1
Lead lost
 34–37
2025 · Week 11
 ARIZ -6.5 56.5 14313744 U KU Q1
Lead lost
 20–24
2025 · Week 11
 TCU -7.5 58.5 691637 U ISU Q1 20–17
2025 · Week 11
 LT -5.5 57.5 10162349 U DEL Q1 24–25
2025 · Week 11
 MTSU -1.5 50.5 7385886 Q3 FIU Q2 56–30
2025 · Week 11
 JXST -1.5 46.5 17334057 Q4 JXST Q4 30–27
2025 · Week 11
 ECU -29.5 56.5 21496770 Q3 CLT Q1 22–48
2025 · Week 11
 FAU -4.5 60.5 10375261 Q4 FAU Q1 21–40
2025 · Week 11
 RUTG -1.5 56.5 7384555 U RUTG Q2 20–35
2025 · Week 11
 RICE -1.5 51.5 14314141 U RICE Q3 17–24
2025 · Week 11
 OSU -30.5 49.5 3272744 U PUR Q1
Late cover flip
 34–10
CIT @ MISS
2025 · Week 11
 MISS -52.5 63.5 21354249 U CIT Q1 0–49
2025 · Week 11
 LIB -7.5 51.5 7101738 U MOST Q3
Lead lost
 21–17
2025 · Week 11
 EMU -3.5 49.5 17243148 U EMU Q4 21–27
2025 · Week 11
 IU -13.5 50.5 7243051 Q4 PSU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
2025 · Week 11
 UGA -9.5 56.5 10315262 Q4 UGA Q2
Late over
 41–21
2025 · Week 11
 SMU -10.5 54.5 10233758 Q4 SMU Q2 45–13
2025 · Week 11
 WVU -6.5 51.5 9283851 U WVU Q4
Late cover flip
 22–29
2025 · Week 11
 JMU -13.5 52.5 7334858 Q4 MRSH Q1
Late over
 35–23
2025 · Week 11
 USM -6.5 54.5 17242748 U ARST Q4
Late cover flip
 27–21
2025 · Week 11
 ARMY -7.5 45.5 0172727 U TEM Q1 13–14
2025 · Week 11
 MEM -3.5 53.5 21525570 Q3 TULN Q1 38–32
2025 · Week 11
 USC -14.5 54.5 14354555 Q4 USC Q4
Late over
 17–38
2025 · Week 11
 UCF -1.5 47.5 3415157 Q3 HOU Q4 30–27
2025 · Week 11
 APP -4.5 61.5 9223148 U GASO Q1 25–23
2025 · Week 11
 USF -13.5 66.5 17556878 Q3 USF Q2 23–55
2025 · Week 11
 BALL -3.5 48.5 3132030 U BALL Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 13–17
2025 · Week 11
 TOL -15.5 41.5 10313845 Q4 TOL Q2 3–42
2025 · Week 11
 AKR -12.5 51.5 24374754 Q4 AKR Q2 10–44
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 51

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 27
Q2 20% 10
Q3 8% 4
Q4 18% 9
OT 2% 1
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 67% of 49 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 65% of 49 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over7100% 7
1–31100% 1
4–7989% 8
8–104100% 4
11–14540% 2
15–1710% 0
18–21743% 3
22+170% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.