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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

55 games · 2023 · Week 7 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games55100%By halftime00%In Q3611%In Q42545%In OT00%Stayed under2444%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands59%Over cashed713%Leader lost the game611%
56% went over. Of the 31 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 19% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 16% of games.

All 55 games

2023 · Week 7 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 7
 SDSU -6.5 53.5 10314475 Q4 SDSU Q4
Late cover flip
 41–34
2023 · Week 7
 BOIS -7.5 59.5 7172761 Q4 CSU Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 30–31
2023 · Week 7
 ORST -3.5 53.5 13335360 Q4 ORST Q1 24–36
2023 · Week 7
 DUKE -3.5 42.5 10202727 U DUKE Q1 3–24
2023 · Week 7
 UTSA -7.5 66.5 28375161 U UTSA Q1 20–41
2023 · Week 7
 ND -3.5 60.5 10304468 Q4 ND Q1
Late over
 20–48
2023 · Week 7
 UNC -2.5 55.5 7315272 Q4 UNC Q3 31–41
2023 · Week 7
 UK -2.5 50.5 14314159 Q4 MIZ Q2 38–21
2023 · Week 7
 WSU -7.5 56.5 16263650 U ARIZ Q1 44–6
2023 · Week 7
 LSU -10.5 58.5 17274466 Q4 LSU Q1 18–48
2023 · Week 7
 TTU -0.5 56.5 10315259 Q4 KSU Q1
Late over
 38–21
2023 · Week 7
 GAST -1.5 53.5 21445165 Q4 GAST Q1 24–41
2023 · Week 7
 TXST -19.5 64.5 10161941 U ULM Q1
Lead lost
 20–21
2023 · Week 7
 AFA -12.5 41.5 21384561 Q3 WYO Q1 27–34
2023 · Week 7
 LOU -7.5 46.5 14355259 Q3 PITT Q1 21–38
2023 · Week 7
 SJSU -6.5 53.5 3315576 Q3 SJSU Q3 52–24
2023 · Week 7
 UNLV -7.5 51.5 21355272 Q3 UNLV Q2 45–27
2023 · Week 7
 WIS -8.5 34.5 071321 U IOWA Q1 15–6
2023 · Week 7
 OHIO -5.5 45.5 10203036 U NIU Q3 13–23
2023 · Week 7
 PSU -41.5 54.5 7284963 Q4 PSU Q3 0–63
2023 · Week 7
 WASH -3.5 68.5 22405569 Q4 ORE Q3
Late over Lead lost
 33–36
2023 · Week 7
 TENN -3.5 54.5 14172733 U TENN Q4
Late cover flip
 13–20
2023 · Week 7
 KU -2.5 52.5 24495971 Q3 OKST Q4
Lead lost
 32–39
2023 · Week 7
 TROY -6.5 41.5 3161919 U TROY Q2 19–0
2023 · Week 7
 MD -13.5 50.5 14284551 Q4 ILL Q1
Late over
 27–24
2023 · Week 7
 SC -1.5 49.5 24455180 Q3 FLA Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 41–39
2023 · Week 7
 VT -1.5 48.5 0273043 U VT Q2 13–30
2023 · Week 7
 TCU -5.5 52.5 14395255 Q4 TCU Q1 11–44
2023 · Week 7
 USF -2.5 60.5 7355670 Q4 FAU Q1 56–14
2023 · Week 7
 CMU -10.5 43.5 362027 U AKR Q4 10–17
2023 · Week 7
 BUFF -2.5 44.5 17313838 U BGSU Q1 24–14
2023 · Week 7
 M-OH -7.5 45.5 17313455 Q4 M-OH Q1 34–21
2023 · Week 7
 UTAH -9.5 43.5 7213848 Q4 UTAH Q3 14–34
2023 · Week 7
 NAVY -3.5 43.5 00714 U NAVY Q3 14–0
2023 · Week 7
 TOL -17.5 48.5 36619 U BALL Q1 13–6
2023 · Week 7
 UGA -33.5 55.5 14313457 Q4 VAN Q1
Late over
 37–20
2023 · Week 7
 MICH -32.5 45.5 7284559 Q4 MICH Q4 7–52
2023 · Week 7
 OSU -17.5 52.5 13203448 U OSU Q2 41–7
2023 · Week 7
 FSU -19.5 53.5 7202744 U FSU Q3 3–41
2023 · Week 7
 ALA -19.5 44.5 13273745 Q4 ARK Q1 21–24
2023 · Week 7
 RUTG -3.5 38.5 10233051 Q4 MSU Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 7
 CIN -3.5 41.5 10243340 U ISU Q2 30–10
2023 · Week 7
 UNT -6.5 65.5 21384559 U UNT Q1 14–45
2023 · Week 7
 JMU -5.5 59.5 14264754 U JMU Q1 13–41
2023 · Week 7
 EMU -7.5 39.5 7142842 Q4 EMU Q2 14–28
2023 · Week 7
 COLO -13.5 57.5 1429487289 Q4 STAN Q3
Lead lost
 46–43
2023 · Week 7
 FRES -5.5 55.5 14284569 Q4 USU Q4
Late cover flip
 37–32
2023 · Week 7
 TULN -4.5 54.5 7243852 U TULN Q4 31–21
2023 · Week 7
 SMU -11.5 49 14242441 U SMU Q4 31–10
2023 · Week 7
 WVU -3 49 17243880 Q4 HOU Q2 39–41
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 55

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 27
Q2 16% 9
Q3 18% 10
Q4 16% 9
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 78% and covered 73% of 49 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 78% of 54 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over6100% 6
1–34100% 4
4–7875% 6
8–10771% 5
11–14786% 6
15–17633% 2
18–2150% 0
22+1217% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.