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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

65 games · 2023 · Week 10 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games65100%By halftime00%In Q31015%In Q42335%In OT00%Stayed under3249%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands1218%Over cashed1015%Leader lost the game69%
52% went over. Of the 33 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

All 65 games

2023 · Week 10 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 10
 UCLA -2.5 49 7212737 U ARIZ Q1 10–27
2023 · Week 10
 ORST -13 60 7172545 U COLO Q4 26–19
2023 · Week 10
 FRES -2.5 54 13304467 Q4 FRES Q1
Late over
 30–37
2023 · Week 10
 WKU -9.5 54 031734 U UTEP Q4
Late cover flip
 21–13
2023 · Week 10
 WSU -14 58 071417 U STAN Q1 10–7
2023 · Week 10
 MIA -6.5 44 10161626 U NCSU Q1 6–20
2023 · Week 10
 ALA -3 61 21426370 Q3 ALA Q3 28–42
2023 · Week 10
 MICH -31 53.5 17263354 Q4 PUR Q1
Late over
 13–41
2023 · Week 10
 WASH -3 75.5 21638494 Q3 WASH Q4
Late cover flip
 52–42
2023 · Week 10
 UK -5.5 44.5 7242727 U UK Q1 24–3
2023 · Week 10
 SMU -12.5 58.5 21456167 Q3 RICE Q1 36–31
2023 · Week 10
 ISU -2.5 54 7173249 U KU Q1 28–21
2023 · Week 10
 WVU -12.5 48.5 14273744 U WVU Q1 7–37
2023 · Week 10
 USU -2 56 010173456 P USU OT 32–24
2023 · Week 10
 LIB -14 59 17386686 Q3 LIB Q2 30–56
2023 · Week 10
 NMSU -3 55.5 0172020 U NMSU Q3 7–13
2023 · Week 10
 APP -3 58.5 0243740 U APP Q2 9–31
2023 · Week 10
 UNLV -14.5 58 14425670 Q4 UNLV Q2 56–14
2023 · Week 10
 ORE -26.5 61 24486182 Q4 ORE Q4 19–63
2023 · Week 10
 TXST -2.5 68.5 17416269 Q4 TXST Q2 24–45
2023 · Week 10
 AUB -12.5 49.5 14244646 U AUB Q3 31–15
2023 · Week 10
 TLSA -4 48 1427325259 Q4 CLT Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 33–26
2023 · Week 10
 USM -3 55.5 17172431 U USM Q1 7–24
2023 · Week 10
 NEV -3 50 0173841 U HAW Q1 27–14
2023 · Week 10
 UGA -14 54 10203751 U MIZ Q1 21–30
2023 · Week 10
 FSU -20.5 49.5 0173131 U PITT Q1 24–7
2023 · Week 10
 OU -6 62 14313851 U OKST Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 10
 PSU -7.5 49.5 14283166 Q4 PSU Q1 51–15
2023 · Week 10
 LOU -9 46.5 7173037 U LOU Q2 3–34
2023 · Week 10
 TULN -17 44.5 10202023 U ECU Q1 13–10
2023 · Week 10
 MINN -2.5 44 21314153 Q4 ILL Q3
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–26
2023 · Week 10
 IOWA -6 31.5 00717 U NU Q4
Late cover flip
 10–7
MRMK @ MASS
2023 · Week 10
 MASS -17 57 14212452 U MRMK Q1
Late cover flip
 21–31
2023 · Week 10
 BAY -2 58.5 07173449 U HOU Q1 25–24
2023 · Week 10
 UCF -3.5 60 10243854 U CIN Q4 28–26
2023 · Week 10
 JMU -6 52 14214256 Q4 JMU Q2 42–14
2023 · Week 10
 ODU -1 51.5 7133452 Q4 CCU Q4
Late over
 28–24
2023 · Week 10
 FAU PK 59 7426387 Q3 UAB Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2023 · Week 10
 UTSA -8 70 10404366 U Push 37–29
2023 · Week 10
 MEM -13.5 68 286387109 Q3 USF Q2 50–59
2023 · Week 10
 UL -7 61 21304454 U ARST Q1 17–37
2023 · Week 10
 AFA -18.5 32.5 17262626 U ARMY Q1 23–3
2023 · Week 10
 UTAH -10 39 17273758 Q4 UTAH Q1 3–55
2023 · Week 10
 GT PK 56 10344162 Q4 GT Q2 45–17
2023 · Week 10
 NAVY -6.5 46.5 10172550 Q4 TEM Q1
Late over
 18–32
2023 · Week 10
 SHSU -16.5 42.5 14283545 Q4 KENN Q1
Late over Lead lost
 21–24
2023 · Week 10
 OSU -19 44 7163051 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 35–16
2023 · Week 10
 TEX -3 50 1024416063 Q4 Push 30–33
2023 · Week 10
 MISS -3 52 7345273 Q4 Push 35–38
2023 · Week 10
 ND -3.5 43 13335454 Q3 CLEM Q1 23–31
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 65

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 30
Q2 17% 11
Q3 12% 8
Q4 17% 11
OT 2% 1
Push 6% 4
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 67% of 58 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 68% of 60 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over10100% 10
1–34100% 4
4–7863% 5
8–103100% 3
11–14850% 4
15–17560% 3
18–21743% 3
22+205% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.