When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
874 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 450 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
Stayed under, cover changed hands in the last 5 minutes: 50 games
2023–2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 5 |
DEN -3 | 42.5 | 7132740 | U | DEN Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2026 · Week 5 |
NYJ -2.5 | 38.5 | 10131329 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
12–17 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BUF -7 | 50.5 | 10202340 | U | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
16–24 |
2026 · Week 3 |
KC -10 | 45.5 | 14212434 | U | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
24–10 |
2025 · Postseason |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 720203437 | U | CHI Q2 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2025 · Week 18 |
DEN -15.5 | 37.5 | 10131622 | U | DEN Q4 Late cover flip |
3–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
ATL -3.5 | 43.5 | 7172336 | U | NO Q2 Late cover flip |
17–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
TB -3 | 42.5 | 10202030 | U | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
14–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
JAX -4.5 | 48.5 | 3173440 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2025 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 41.5 | 3232329 | U | MIN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CHI -1.5 | 44.5 | 06163238 | U | CHI OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–22 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 7172737 | U | NO Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 13 |
TB -4.5 | 45.5 | 0132737 | U | ARI Q4 Late cover flip |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NE -7.5 | 50.5 | 3303346 | U | CIN Q1 Late cover flip |
26–20 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 17232640 | U | SEA Q3 Late cover flip |
19–21 |
2025 · Week 11 |
HOU -5.5 | 37.5 | 331629 | U | TEN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MIA -2.5 | 46.5 | 612192629 | U | MIA OT Late cover flip |
13–16 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 6232347 | U | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–27 |
2025 · Week 3 |
LAC -2.5 | 45.5 | 3173043 | U | LAC Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2025 · Week 3 |
GB -7.5 | 40.5 | 031023 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
10–13 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PIT -1.5 | 44.5 | 7212135 | U | PIT Q1 Late cover flip |
21–14 |
2025 · Week 3 |
JAX -1.5 | 42.5 | 7101327 | U | JAX Q1 Late cover flip |
10–17 |
2025 · Week 1 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 7171730 | U | SF Q4 Late cover flip |
17–13 |
2024 · Week 18 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 10202336 | U | PIT Q4 Late cover flip |
19–17 |
2024 · Week 14 |
CIN -4.5 | 50.5 | 14273447 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 14 |
NO -5.5 | 41.5 | 7101725 | U | NYG Q4 Late cover flip |
14–11 |
2024 · Week 13 |
HOU -3.5 | 44.5 | 092243 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 11 |
PHI -4.5 | 49.5 | 7101644 | U | PHI Q4 Late cover flip |
18–26 |
2024 · Week 9 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 072134 | U | MIN Q3 Late cover flip |
13–21 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LAR -7.5 | 43.5 | 0202935 | U | LV Q4 Late cover flip |
15–20 |
2024 · Week 7 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 7132026 | U | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
10–16 |
2024 · Week 6 |
CIN -4.5 | 45.5 | 771724 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
17–7 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 2 |
HOU -6.5 | 45.5 | 6262632 | U | CHI Q1 Late cover flip |
13–19 |
2024 · Week 2 |
NYJ -3.5 | 42.5 | 7173441 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip |
24–17 |
2024 · Week 2 |
WSH -1.5 | 42.5 | 9212739 | U | WSH Q3 Late cover flip |
18–21 |
2024 · Week 1 |
DET -5.5 | 53.5 | 313274046 | U | DET OT Late cover flip |
20–26 |
2023 · Week 17 |
KC -7.5 | 46 | 10303342 | U | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
17–25 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CLE -2.5 | 38 | 0142437 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
TEN -3 | 38 | 616223235 | U | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–16 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIN -3 | 40.5 | 0003 | U | Push Late cover flip |
3–0 |
2023 · Week 12 |
BAL -3 | 49 | 3131630 | U | BAL Q2 Late cover flip |
20–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
CLE -2.5 | 34 | 7101723 | U | CLE Q1 Late cover flip |
10–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAC -3 | 44 | 3202943 | U | GB Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PIT -3 | 36 | 10232936 | P | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BUF -10 | 43 | 3273442 | U | TB Q4 Late cover flip |
18–24 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SEA -9.5 | 43.5 | 10242730 | U | SEA Q4 Late cover flip |
10–20 |
2023 · Week 6 |
DAL -1.5 | 49.5 | 14172037 | U | DAL Q4 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2023 · Week 6 |
KC -9.5 | 48.5 | 3131627 | U | KC Q2 Late cover flip |
8–19 |
DEN
LAC
CLE
NYJ
BUF
KC
MIA
LAR
CHI
NO
ATL
CAR
TB
JAX
IND
MIN
NYG
GB
ARI
NE
CIN
SEA
HOU
TEN
WSH
PIT
SF
DAL
PHI
LV
DET
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 431
Q2 17% 152
Q3 11% 97
Q4 19% 168
OT 2% 15
Push 1% 11
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 816 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 833 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 111 | 100% 111 |
| 1–3 | 44 | 95% 42 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 87% 89 |
| 8–10 | 101 | 64% 65 |
| 11–14 | 117 | 60% 70 |
| 15–17 | 108 | 33% 36 |
| 18–21 | 121 | 19% 23 |
| 22+ | 170 | 8% 14 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.