1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Cover changed hands in the last 5 minutes: 92 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Postseason
 KSU -3 49 7314047 U KSU Q4
Late cover flip
 19–28
2023 · Postseason
 ODU -4.5 49.5 2135497073 Q4 WKU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 FSU -6.5 49 0192939 U FSU Q4
Late cover flip
 24–15
2023 · Week 13
 LIB -18 55 28354270 Q4 UTEP Q4
Late cover flip
 42–28
2023 · Week 13
 MICH -3 46 10244154 Q4 MICH Q1
Late cover flip
 24–30
2023 · Week 13
 M-OH -3.5 34.5 13262932 U BALL Q4
Late cover flip
 17–15
2023 · Week 13
 BOIS -7 44.5 3234346 Q4 BOIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 19–27
2023 · Week 13
 USU -5 59 2131456285 Q4 UNM Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 44–41
2023 · Week 12
 GT -6 51.5 10204053 Q4 GT Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 22–31
2023 · Week 12
 WIS -7 36.5 1424313441 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over
 17–24
2023 · Week 12
 OKST -6.5 57.5 17425673 Q4 OKST Q3
Late cover flip
 43–30
2023 · Week 12
 UAB -7.5 61.5 7243458 U UAB Q4
Late cover flip
 24–34
2023 · Week 12
 LIB -26.5 63.5 21455274 Q4 MASS Q4
Late cover flip
 25–49
2023 · Week 12
 LOU PK 46 28415169 Q3 LOU Q4
Late cover flip
 38–31
2023 · Week 12
 PSU -19.5 40 3161933 U PSU Q4
Late cover flip
 6–27
2023 · Week 12
 MSST -18 48 10233061 Q4 MSST Q4
Late cover flip
 20–41
2023 · Week 12
 PITT -2.5 46.5 6163040 U PITT Q2
Late cover flip
 16–24
2023 · Week 12
 EMU -3 39.5 028283457 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 27–30
2023 · Week 11
 LSU -16.5 68 14316687 Q4 LSU Q4
Late cover flip
 35–52
2023 · Week 11
 CSU -3.5 47 5152841 U SDSU Q4
Late cover flip
 19–22
2023 · Week 11
 USA -14 55 10172735 U ARST Q4
Late cover flip
 14–21
2023 · Week 11
 ILL -4.5 44 1653608493 Q2 IU Q4
Late cover flip
 45–48
2023 · Week 11
 MD -2 42.5 071723 U MD Q4
Late cover flip
 13–10
2023 · Week 11
 OHIO -9 45 031330 U OHIO Q4
Late cover flip
 20–10
2023 · Week 10
 WKU -9.5 54 031734 U UTEP Q4
Late cover flip
 21–13
2023 · Week 10
 WASH -3 75.5 21638494 Q3 WASH Q4
Late cover flip
 52–42
2023 · Week 10
 TLSA -4 48 1427325259 Q4 CLT Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 33–26
2023 · Week 10
 MINN -2.5 44 21314153 Q4 ILL Q3
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–26
2023 · Week 10
 IOWA -6 31.5 00717 U NU Q4
Late cover flip
 10–7
MRMK @ MASS
2023 · Week 10
 MASS -17 57 14212452 U MRMK Q1
Late cover flip
 21–31
2023 · Week 10
 FAU PK 59 7426387 Q3 UAB Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2023 · Week 10
 OSU -19 44 7163051 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 35–16
2023 · Week 10
 FLA -3 49 2834436675 Q4 ARK Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 39–36
2023 · Week 10
 BC -1 47.5 10171727 U BC Q2
Late cover flip
 17–10
2023 · Week 10
 TROY -7 43.5 7212138 U TROY Q4
Late cover flip
 10–28
2023 · Week 10
 AKR -3.5 40 13303758 Q4 AKR Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–31
2023 · Week 9
 UCLA -14 60 6132344 U COLO Q1
Late cover flip
 16–28
2023 · Week 9
 MINN -6.5 41.5 6161639 U MINN Q4
Late cover flip
 12–27
2023 · Week 9
 UTSA -17.5 48 31515468 Q2 ECU Q1
Late cover flip
 27–41
2023 · Week 9
 MEM -6.5 69.5 21415287 Q4 UNT Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 45–42
2023 · Week 8
 FSU -14 48.5 17373758 Q4 FSU Q4
Late cover flip
 20–38
2023 · Week 8
 ORE -19.5 60.5 6304762 Q4 WSU Q1
Late cover flip Late over
 24–38
2023 · Week 8
 WIS -3 41 7212846 Q4 WIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 25–21
2023 · Week 8
 CONN -1 57 7242445 U USF Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 24–21
2023 · Week 8
 PITT -3 45 7141438 U WAKE Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–21
2023 · Week 8
 AFA -11 34 071023 U Push
Late cover flip
 17–6
2023 · Week 7
 SDSU -6.5 53.5 10314475 Q4 SDSU Q4
Late cover flip
 41–34
2023 · Week 7
 BOIS -7.5 59.5 7172761 Q4 CSU Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 30–31
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 92

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.