KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -4.5✓ UVA covered by 13.5
LOU -4.5✓ UVA covered by 13.5Closing total154.5Under by 5.5
 UVA | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2 | Record | 12-4 |
| 10-6 | ATS | 9-7 |
| 7-9 | O/U | 7-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 75–82 LOU · ✗ LOU (73%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 33 | 46 | 79 |
| LOU | 28 | 42 | 70 |
1st half: UVA 33, LOU 28 (UVA by 5). The model had LOU by 4.2 and a total of 73.8 (actual 61).
Team stats
| UVA | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-53 40% | Field goals | 24-67 36% |
| 14-34 41% | 3-pointers | 10-38 26% |
| 23-29 79% | Free throws | 12-18 67% |
| 44 14 off | Rebounds | 36 17 off |
| 15 | Assists | 13 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 9 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 22 | Fouls | 21 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 32 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Sam Lewis G | 30 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-7 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-3 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 26 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 4-8 | 3-4 |
| Malik Thomas G | 25 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 6-9 | 6-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Jacari White G | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Devin Tillis F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Elijah Gertrude, Owen Odom, Martin Carrere, Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale, Carter Lang
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 38 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 7-16 | 5-14 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 37 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 5-21 | 3-12 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 35 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 29 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1-9 | 0-4 |
| Sananda Fru F | 24 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aly Khalifa C | 18 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Vangelis Zougris, Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Khani Rooths, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mikel Brown Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -4.5
ModelLOU -7.2
Model edgeLOU +2.7
L UVA covered
Total
Market154.5
Model157.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
L Under
Projected score
UVA 75.2 · LOU 82.4
UVA 79 · LOU 70
Win probability
LOU 73%
1st half
Spread
LOU -4.2
UVA -5.0
Total
73.8
61 points
Projected score
UVA 34.8 · LOU 39
UVA 33 · LOU 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -3.5
1 → LOU
CloseLOU -4.5
1 pt toward LOU
Total
Open152.5
▲ 2
Close154.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
UVA +180 · LOU -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -3.5 · closed LOU -4.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -7
model LOU -7
Opened 152.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 2 upmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UVA 7–2 LOUUVA leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · LOU has won the last 2 meetings · UVA 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | UVA 67 @ LOU 81 | LOU -15.5 | UVA W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | LOU 70 @ UVA 50 | UVA +5.5 | LOU W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | UVA 69 @ LOU 52 | LOU +9 | UVA W |
| Jan 3, 2023-24 | LOU 53 @ UVA 77 | UVA -15.5 | UVA W |
| Mar 4, 2022-23 | LOU 60 @ UVA 75 | UVA -18.5 | LOU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
16 games played
Straight up
14-2
88% wins
Against the spread
10-6
63% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-9
44% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
covered 10didn’t cover 6avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
over 7under 9avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
16 games played
Straight up
12-4
75% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-9
44% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
over 7under 9avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
14-2 overall · 3-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Stanford70–55
- Wvs California84–60
- W@ NC State76–61
- L@ Virginia Tech85–95
- Wvs American95–51
3 days since their last game.
Louisville
12-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Boston College75–62
- Lvs Duke73–84
- L@ Stanford76–80
- W@ California90–70
- Wvs Montana94–54
3 days since their last game.