Savage Arena · at Toledo · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -5.5✓ TOL covered by 15.5
TOL -5.5✓ TOL covered by 15.5Closing total155.5Over by 21.5
 BUF | This season | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 15-13 | Record | 14-14 |
| 16-12 | ATS | 16-12 |
| 15-13 | O/U | 11-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 76–82 TOL · ✓ TOL (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 33 | 45 | 78 |
| TOL | 37 | 62 | 99 |
1st half: BUF 33, TOL 37 (TOL by 4). The model had TOL by 3.8 and a total of 73.8 (actual 70).
Team stats
| BUF | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-58 53% | Field goals | 38-63 60% |
| 10-25 40% | 3-pointers | 12-24 50% |
| 6-9 67% | Free throws | 11-15 73% |
| 29 10 off | Rebounds | 28 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 27 |
| 5 | Steals | 9 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 40 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 10-22 | 6-17 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 34 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 7-13 | 2-4 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 34 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Tim Oboh F | 31 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Matas Buteliauskas F | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Mikhali Pocknett, Daniel Freitag
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 35 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 10-14 | 4-6 |
| Sean Craig F | 34 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 6-13 | 1-4 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 33 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 7-11 | 3-5 |
| Mynor Strong G | 30 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 6-10 | 4-6 |
| Austin Parks C | 24 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 19 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Will James Jr. G | 15 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Tyler Ode G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| London Praytor F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Toby Nwokolo F | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Phoenix Glassnor, Chris Riddle
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTOL -5.5
ModelTOL -6.6
Model edgeTOL +1.1
W TOL covered
Total
Market155.5
Model158.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
W Over
Projected score
BUF 75.7 · TOL 82.3
BUF 78 · TOL 99
Win probability
TOL 72%
1st half
Spread
TOL -3.8
TOL -4.0
Total
73.8
70 points
Projected score
BUF 35 · TOL 38.8
BUF 33 · TOL 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -7.5
2 → BUF
CloseTOL -5.5
2 pts toward BUF
Total
Open154.5
▲ 1
Close155.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +210 · TOL -258
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -7.5 · closed TOL -5.5 · moved 2 toward BUFmodel TOL -6.5
model TOL -6.5
Opened 154.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| TOL | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
BUF 1–7 TOLTOL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · BUF 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | TOL 74 @ BUF 87 | BUF +7.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | BUF 74 @ TOL 87 | TOL -13.5 | BUF W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | TOL 85 @ BUF 79 | BUF +10.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | BUF 66 @ TOL 77 | TOL -15.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 25, 2022-23 | BUF 71 @ TOL 101 | TOL -11.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
28 games played
Straight up
15-13
54% wins
Against the spread
16-12
57% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-13
54% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs BALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs AKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vs MASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsOHIO | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsM-OH | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @ USA | L 69-81 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 11 | @BALL | W 63-53 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 17 | vsNIU | L 70-72 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 21 | @MASS | W 86-82 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 24 | @AKR | L 85-99 | +15.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 28 | vs CMU | L 70-75 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 151.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 3 | vs EMU | W 72-67 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
−14.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
+2.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
−8.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
+11.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−11.5
21
@MASS
MASSW 86-82
+11.5
24
@AKR
AKRL 85-99
+1.5
28
vsCMU
CMUL 70-75
−10.5
3
vsEMU
EMUW 72-67
−0.5
covered 16didn’t cover 12avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
+21.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
−21.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
+4.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
−25.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−3.5
21
@MASS
MASSW 86-82
+16.5
24
@AKR
AKRL 85-99
+23.5
28
vsCMU
CMUL 70-75
−6.5
3
vsEMU
EMUW 72-67
−4.5
over 15under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Toledo
28 games played
Straight up
14-14
50% wins
Against the spread
16-12
57% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-17
39% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsUSA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vsWMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vsM-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsOHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vsBGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vsBALL | W 73-55 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsKENT | L 72-75 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 161.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ JMU | L 71-73 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 11 | @WMU | W 90-79 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | @BGSU | L 70-80 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 21 | vsEMU | W 94-75 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNIU | W 79-69 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 28 | @OHIO | W 79-67 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 3 | @M-OH | L 72-74 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
+9.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−1.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−3.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+4.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−6.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+10.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
28
@OHIO
OHIOW 79-67
+13.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 72-74
+5.5
covered 16didn’t cover 12avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
−18.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−14.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−9.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+14.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−0.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+23.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
28
@OHIO
OHIOW 79-67
−12.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 72-74
−16.5
over 11under 17avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
15-13 overall · 7-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs E Michigan72–67
- Lvs C Michigan70–75
- L@ Akron85–99
- W@ UMass86–82
- Lvs N Illinois70–72
3 days since their last game.
Toledo
14-14 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Miami OH72–74
- W@ Ohio79–67
- Wvs N Illinois79–69
- Wvs E Michigan94–75
- L@ Bowling Green70–80
3 days since their last game.