When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
355 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 38–44 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 178 overs, 2% had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 22% of games.
All 355 games
2023–2026 · Totals 38–44 · newest first · showing 50
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 |
KC -7.5 | 41.5 | 12222528 | U | KC Q2 | 6–22 |
2026 · Week 6 |
BAL -3 | 40.5 | 10101323 | U | CLE Q4 | 10–13 |
2026 · Week 6 |
IND -6.5 | 43.5 | 0131946 | Q4 | TEN Q4 Late over |
26–20 |
2026 · Week 6 |
NE -7.5 | 42.5 | 10203045 | Q4 | NYJ Q3 Late over |
19–26 |
2026 · Week 6 |
CAR -3 | 39.5 | 3172039 | U | CAR Q3 | 25–14 |
2026 · Week 6 |
JAX -2.5 | 42.5 | 7315265 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 6 |
SEA -3 | 40.5 | 317172831 | U | DEN Q2 | 14–17 |
2026 · Week 5 |
DEN -3 | 42.5 | 7132740 | U | DEN Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2026 · Week 5 |
MIN -2.5 | 41.5 | 3132636 | U | MIN Q4 | 23–13 |
2026 · Week 5 |
NYJ -2.5 | 38.5 | 10131329 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
12–17 |
2026 · Week 5 |
PIT -3 | 42.5 | 13304356 | Q3 | PIT Q2 | 22–34 |
2026 · Week 5 |
WSH -3.5 | 41.5 | 915325454 | Q4 | NYG Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–27 |
2026 · Week 5 |
JAX -7.5 | 41.5 | 7212436 | U | PHI Q1 Lead lost |
17–19 |
2026 · Week 4 |
SEA -7 | 43.5 | 10264353 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip |
23–30 |
2026 · Week 4 |
MIN -10 | 38.5 | 392225 | U | MIA Q1 | 10–15 |
2026 · Week 4 |
CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 7162635 | U | CHI Q1 | 12–23 |
2026 · Week 4 |
ARI -2.5 | 43.5 | 17365160 | Q3 | NYG Q2 | 24–36 |
2026 · Week 4 |
LAR -4.5 | 42.5 | 6303044 | Q4 | PHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
24–20 |
2026 · Week 4 |
GB -2.5 | 38.5 | 0172431 | U | GB Q2 | 17–14 |
2026 · Week 4 |
BAL -11.5 | 41.5 | 14313442 | Q4 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
18–24 |
2026 · Week 4 |
PIT -2.5 | 38.5 | 7313151 | Q4 | CLE Q2 | 24–27 |
2026 · Week 3 |
PHI -3 | 42.5 | 7172734 | U | CHI Q1 | 7–27 |
2026 · Week 3 |
TB -1.5 | 42.5 | 17273039 | U | MIN Q1 | 23–16 |
2026 · Week 3 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 0131939 | U | CLE Q1 | 18–21 |
2026 · Week 3 |
HOU -1.5 | 42.5 | 3202036 | U | IND Q1 | 17–19 |
2026 · Week 3 |
CIN -3.5 | 42.5 | 21344457 | Q3 | PIT Q1 | 27–30 |
2026 · Week 3 |
SEA -8.5 | 40.5 | 7274164 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 31–33 |
2026 · Week 3 |
GB -4.5 | 43.5 | 14243149 | Q4 | ATL Q1 Late over |
35–14 |
2026 · Week 2 |
SEA -3.5 | 40.5 | 7142438 | U | SEA Q3 | 31–7 |
2026 · Week 2 |
LAC -6.5 | 43.5 | 0173140 | U | LV Q1 | 26–14 |
2026 · Week 2 |
CAR -2.5 | 43.5 | 10233737 | U | CAR Q1 | 34–3 |
2026 · Week 2 |
PHI -7 | 39.5 | 7243444 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over |
24–20 |
2026 · Week 2 |
NE -4.5 | 41.5 | 7131623 | U | NE Q1 | 3–20 |
2026 · Week 2 |
TB -8.5 | 41.5 | 9153242 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
23–19 |
2026 · Week 1 |
KC -2.5 | 42.5 | 14213441 | U | KC Q2 | 10–31 |
2026 · Week 1 |
LV -3 | 40.5 | 7234040 | U | LV Q1 | 13–27 |
2026 · Week 1 |
PHI -6 | 43.5 | 3232646 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
22–24 |
2026 · Week 1 |
TEN -1.5 | 39.5 | 10132333 | U | NYJ Q1 | 23–10 |
2026 · Week 1 |
PIT -6.5 | 40.5 | 10202333 | U | PIT Q4 | 13–20 |
2026 · Week 1 |
JAX -8.5 | 40.5 | 14243744 | Q4 | JAX Q1 Late over |
10–34 |
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3.5 | 43.5 | 7141717 | U | DEN Q1 | 10–7 |
2025 · Postseason |
NE -3 | 40.5 | 10313744 | Q4 | NE Q1 | 16–28 |
2025 · Postseason |
HOU -3 | 38.5 | 3131336 | U | HOU Q4 | 30–6 |
2025 · Week 18 |
BAL -4.5 | 41.5 | 7132350 | Q4 | PIT Q3 Late over Lead lost |
24–26 |
2025 · Week 18 |
BUF -13.5 | 39.5 | 7212943 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 8–35 |
2025 · Week 18 |
NE -14.5 | 43.5 | 14274148 | Q4 | NE Q3 | 10–38 |
2025 · Week 18 |
PHI -3 | 38.5 | 0172741 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late over |
24–17 |
2025 · Week 18 |
ATL -3.5 | 43.5 | 7172336 | U | NO Q2 Late cover flip |
17–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
TB -3 | 42.5 | 10202030 | U | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
14–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NYG -3 | 40.5 | 7203744 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over |
34–10 |
LAC
KC
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
NYJ
NE
CAR
PHI
HOU
JAX
SEA
DEN
MIN
NO
PIT
NYG
WSH
MIA
CHI
ARI
LAR
GB
TB
CIN
ATL
LV
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 48% 171
Q2 17% 61
Q3 11% 39
Q4 21% 74
OT 1% 3
Push 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 70% of 333 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 74% of 338 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 49 | 100% 49 |
| 1–3 | 21 | 95% 20 |
| 4–7 | 39 | 79% 31 |
| 8–10 | 44 | 59% 26 |
| 11–14 | 45 | 64% 29 |
| 15–17 | 53 | 25% 13 |
| 18–21 | 52 | 13% 7 |
| 22+ | 52 | 6% 3 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.