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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

214 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games214100%By halftime42%In Q32110%In Q47535%In OT00%Stayed under11453%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands2411%Over cashed3617%Leader lost the game2512%
48% went over. Of the 100 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

Went over in Q4: 75 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 SF -7.5 53.5 14314865 Q4 DET Q1
Late over
 31–34
2023 · Postseason
 BUF -2.5 46 6304451 Q4 KC Q4 27–24
2023 · Postseason
 DET -6 50 6203454 Q4 DET Q4
Late over
 23–31
2023 · Postseason
 BUF -10 39.5 14283448 Q4 BUF Q1 17–31
2023 · Week 18
 LV -3 37.5 7242441 Q4 LV Q1 14–27
2023 · Week 18
 SF -5.5 40 14273341 Q4 LAR Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 21–20
2023 · Week 18
 DAL -13 47 7314548 Q4 DAL Q3
Late over
 38–10
2023 · Week 18
 CIN -7 37 14243145 Q4 CIN Q1 14–31
2023 · Week 18
 DET -3.5 47.5 13193350 Q4 DET Q1 20–30
2023 · Week 18
 JAX -3.5 41 10344148 Q4 TEN Q1 20–28
2023 · Week 17
 GB -1 42.5 10263343 Q4 GB Q1 33–10
2023 · Week 17
 CHI -2.5 39.5 7283754 Q4 CHI Q1 17–37
2023 · Week 17
 IND -3.5 42.5 10172743 Q4 LV Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 20–23
2023 · Week 17
 LAR -6 43.5 7243651 Q4 NYG Q2
Late cover flip
 26–25
2023 · Week 17
 PHI -12.5 48 10274266 Q4 ARI Q3 35–31
2023 · Week 16
 SF -6.5 47 8284552 Q4 BAL Q1 33–19
2023 · Week 16
 PHI -14 41 10233858 Q4 NYG Q3 25–33
2023 · Week 16
 DEN -7 37.5 7103049 Q4 NE Q2 26–23
2023 · Week 16
 CHI -4.5 42 7283443 Q4 CHI Q1
Late over
 16–27
2023 · Week 16
 DET -2.5 48 14314454 Q4 DET Q4 30–24
2023 · Week 16
 GB -3.5 39.5 10333963 Q4 CAR Q4
Late cover flip
 33–30
2023 · Week 16
 CLE -3 40 7293558 Q4 CLE Q1 36–22
2023 · Week 16
 BUF -13 44 3243446 Q4 LAC Q1
Late over Lead lost
 24–22
2023 · Week 16
 LAR -4 45.5 7243452 Q4 LAR Q1
Late over
 22–30
2023 · Week 15
 KC -10 39.5 7243744 Q4 Push 27–17
2023 · Week 15
 DET -5.5 49 0213859 Q4 DET Q2 17–42
2023 · Week 15
 IND -1 41.5 6273743 Q4 IND Q3
Late over
 13–30
2023 · Week 15
 CIN -3 41.5 1010204851 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 24–27
2023 · Week 14
 MIA -13.5 44.5 7172355 Q4 TEN Q1
Late over Lead lost
 28–27
2023 · Week 14
 GB -5.5 37 7173446 Q4 NYG Q2
Late over
 22–24
2023 · Week 14
 ATL -1.5 41.5 6222954 Q4 TB Q1
Late over
 29–25
2023 · Week 14
 CIN -3 45 7284248 Q4 CIN Q3
Late over
 14–34
2023 · Week 14
 CLE -2.5 37.5 7213558 Q4 CLE Q1 27–31
2023 · Week 14
 HOU -3 33.5 002036 Q4 NYJ Q1
Late over
 6–30
2023 · Week 14
 BAL -7.5 42 1037426268 Q4 LAR Q1 31–37
2023 · Week 13
 KC -6 44 10203346 Q4 GB Q1
Late over
 19–27
2023 · Week 13
 LAR -3.5 39.5 17233355 Q4 LAR Q3
Late cover flip Late over
 19–36
2023 · Week 13
 SF -3 46.5 6204161 Q4 SF Q2 42–19
2023 · Week 13
 TB -3.5 37 7102439 Q4 CAR Q4 18–21
2023 · Week 13
 IND -1 42 1730415059 Q4 IND OT
Late cover flip
 31–28
2023 · Week 13
 DET -4 48 21314861 Q4 DET Q1 33–28
2023 · Week 12
 KC -9 42.5 7283848 Q4 KC Q4 31–17
2023 · Week 12
 PHI -2.5 48.5 724386271 Q4 PHI OT 34–37
2023 · Week 12
 DEN -2 37.5 7202941 Q4 DEN Q1
Late over
 12–29
2023 · Week 12
 LAR -3 45 15293251 Q4 LAR Q2 37–14
2023 · Week 12
 IND -2.5 44.5 13273047 Q4 IND Q1
Late over
 20–27
2023 · Week 12
 MIA -8.5 40 3232647 Q4 MIA Q2
Late over
 34–13
2023 · Week 12
 SF -7 43 10273744 Q4 SF Q2 31–13
2023 · Week 12
 DAL -13 48 7303055 Q4 DAL Q4
Late over
 10–45
2023 · Week 12
 DET -8.5 47 26294351 Q4 GB Q1
Late over
 29–22
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 75

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 100
Q2 21% 44
Q3 10% 21
Q4 19% 40
OT 1% 2
Push 3% 7
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 72% of 199 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 79% of 200 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over25100% 25
1–313100% 13
4–72793% 25
8–102638% 10
11–142952% 15
15–173023% 7
18–21339% 3
22+316% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.