1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 30.5–38.5 ✕

When did they go over?

49 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 30.5–38.5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games49100%By halftime24%In Q3918%In Q41327%In OT24%Stayed under2347%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands816%Over cashed816%Leader lost the game510%
53% went over. Of the 26 overs, 8% had cashed by halftime and 42% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.

All 49 games

2023–2026 · Totals 30.5–38.5 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2025 · Week 16
 NAVY -6 37.5 7202633 U ARMY Q2 16–17
2025 · Week 14
 OU -12.5 36.5 362030 U LSU Q1
Lead lost
 13–17
2025 · Week 14
 WIS -2.5 38.5 0172424 U MINN Q1 7–17
2025 · Week 14
 IOWA -5.5 38.5 20404956 Q2 IOWA Q2 40–16
2025 · Week 13
 M-OH -2.5 38.5 3275157 Q3 M-OH Q2 37–20
2025 · Week 13
 WMU -6.5 38.5 10273454 Q4 WMU Q3 35–19
2025 · Week 12
 WAKE -3.5 37.5 7203040 Q4 WAKE Q1
Late over
 12–28
2025 · Week 7
 IOWA -4.5 37.5 17233037 U IOWA Q1 37–0
2025 · Week 2
 HOU -13.5 38.5 0101744 Q4 HOU Q4
Late over
 35–9
2024 · Week 14
 BGSU -3 37.5 7191940 Q4 M-OH Q1
Late over
 28–12
2024 · Week 13
 MICH -10.5 34.5 10233756 Q3 MICH Q2 6–50
2024 · Week 10
 ARMY -18.5 38.5 391623 U AFA Q1 3–20
2024 · Week 9
 UTAH -4.5 35.5 7142131 U HOU Q4 14–17
2024 · Week 9
 IOWA -16.5 37.5 3194754 Q3 IOWA Q3 14–40
2024 · Week 6
 IU -12.5 38.5 7274165 Q3 IU Q4
Late cover flip
 41–24
2024 · Week 6
 NAVY -9.5 37.5 14283441 Q4 NAVY Q1 34–7
2024 · Week 5
 AFA -4.5 33.5 7203450 Q3 WYO Q3 19–31
2024 · Week 5
 MICH -10.5 34.5 7242751 Q4 MINN Q4 24–27
2024 · Week 4
 IOWA -2.5 34.5 7213845 Q3 IOWA Q3 31–14
EIU @ NU
2024 · Week 3
 NU -26.5 38.5 7213138 U EIU Q1 7–31
2024 · Week 2
 IOWA -2.5 36.5 7133339 Q4 ISU Q4
Late over Lead lost
 20–19
2024 · Week 2
 NU -2.5 37.5 1017202646 OT DUKE Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 26–20
2023 · Postseason
 TENN -5 37 0142135 U TENN Q2 0–35
2023 · Week 14
 MICH -21.5 36 10102026 U MICH Q4 26–0
2023 · Week 13
 M-OH -3.5 34.5 13262932 U BALL Q4
Late cover flip
 17–15
2023 · Week 13
 BUFF -5.5 37.5 7243235 U EMU Q1 24–11
2023 · Week 12
 WIS -7 36.5 1424313441 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over
 17–24
2023 · Week 12
 IOWA -3 33.5 5191928 U ILL Q1
Lead lost
 13–15
2023 · Week 12
 NAVY -2.5 30.5 77710 U NAVY Q1 0–10
2023 · Week 12
 M-OH -7.5 37 0132333 U M-OH Q4 10–23
2023 · Week 11
 PITT -3.5 38 10203441 Q4 SYR Q3 13–28
2023 · Week 11
 M-OH -17 37.5 7101619 U M-OH Q4 0–19
2023 · Week 10
 IOWA -6 31.5 00717 U NU Q4
Late cover flip
 10–7
2023 · Week 10
 AFA -18.5 32.5 17262626 U ARMY Q1 23–3
2023 · Week 10
 NEB -3 35.5 3202337 Q4 MSU Q1
Late over
 17–20
2023 · Week 9
 SHSU -4 38.5 7344771 Q3 UTEP Q4 37–34
2023 · Week 8
 IOWA -3.5 30.5 6131922 U MINN Q3 12–10
2023 · Week 8
 BGSU -7 37 10204155 Q3 BGSU Q3 14–41
2023 · Week 8
 AFA -11 34 071023 U Push
Late cover flip
 17–6
2023 · Week 7
 WIS -8.5 34.5 071321 U IOWA Q1 15–6
2023 · Week 7
 RUTG -3.5 38.5 10233051 Q4 MSU Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 5
 IOWA -10 36.5 6192942 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 16–26
2023 · Week 5
 JXST -7 36 2128355663 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 35–28
2023 · Week 4
 PSU -14 38.5 3102431 U PSU Q3 0–31
2023 · Week 4
 HOU -11.5 37 17313845 Q3 HOU Q2 7–38
2023 · Week 4
 ISU -3.5 36 14374761 Q2 ISU Q3 27–34
2023 · Week 3
 RUTG -6.5 37.5 7243151 Q4 RUTG Q1 16–35
2023 · Week 2
 AFA -13.5 36.5 03616 U SHSU Q1 13–3
2023 · Week 2
 IOWA -3.5 35 3202333 U IOWA Q2 20–13
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 35% 17
Q2 14% 7
Q3 20% 10
Q4 22% 11
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 4
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 64% of 45 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 72% of 46 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over11100% 11
1–31100% 1
4–7967% 6
8–10667% 4
11–14425% 1
15–1780% 0
18–212100% 2
22+813% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.