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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

51 games · 2025 · Week 6 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games51100%By halftime00%In Q3714%In Q41529%In OT12%Stayed under2855%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands36%Over cashed816%Leader lost the game48%
45% went over. Of the 23 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.

All 51 games

2025 · Week 6 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2025 · Week 6
 DUKE -3.5 55.5 21525266 Q4 DUKE Q2 45–21
2025 · Week 6
 FRES -13.5 46.5 3233037 U NEV Q3 17–20
2025 · Week 6
 MEM -21.5 52.5 7354552 U MEM Q3 7–45
2025 · Week 6
 OSU -23.5 42.5 10243145 Q4 OSU Q3
Late over
 3–42
2025 · Week 6
 MIA -2.5 54.5 10173150 U MIA Q1 28–22
2025 · Week 6
 TA&M -17.5 57.5 3101740 U TA&M Q4 9–31
2025 · Week 6
 TCU -14.5 56.5 0282856 U COLO Q1 21–35
2025 · Week 6
 KU -3.5 52.5 7344747 U KU Q3 27–20
2025 · Week 6
 TTU -11.5 51.5 18363946 U TTU Q1 35–11
2025 · Week 6
 UNLV -4.5 53.5 20273448 U UNLV Q1 31–17
2025 · Week 6
 USA -2.5 46.5 1421384855 Q4 TROY Q1
Late over
 24–31
2025 · Week 6
 RICE -4.5 55.5 21243848 U FAU Q1 27–21
2025 · Week 6
 ODU -18.5 53.5 10344454 Q4 ODU Q2
Late over
 7–47
2025 · Week 6
 OU -46.5 53.5 10234444 U KENT Q1 0–44
2025 · Week 6
 NEB -12.5 49.5 14214265 Q4 MSU Q2 27–38
2025 · Week 6
 TXST -14.5 63.5 14202061 U ARST Q1 30–31
2025 · Week 6
 PSU -24.5 47.5 17345579 Q3 UCLA Q1 37–42
2025 · Week 6
 TEX -4.5 42.5 10264350 Q3 FLA Q1 21–29
2025 · Week 6
 ALA -13.5 58.5 7283444 U ALA Q4
Late cover flip
 14–30
2025 · Week 6
 ND -21.5 63.5 6212835 U BOIS Q1 7–28
2025 · Week 6
 LOU -6.5 61.5 1428384857 U UVA Q1 30–27
2025 · Week 6
 WASH -5.5 53.5 10132344 U MD Q1
Lead lost
 24–20
2025 · Week 6
 NU -13.5 43.5 14254649 Q3 NU Q3 7–42
2025 · Week 6
 APP -2.5 54.5 17314850 U APP Q1 23–27
2025 · Week 6
 SMU -17.5 56.5 3272749 U SYR Q4 18–31
2025 · Week 6
 CONN -6.5 51.5 14304761 Q4 CONN Q1 10–51
2025 · Week 6
 JMU -18.5 52.5 771421 U GAST Q1 14–7
2025 · Week 6
 CMU -6.5 47.5 3244150 Q4 AKR Q1
Late over
 22–28
2025 · Week 6
 BUFF -9.5 53.5 1428424861 OT EMU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 30–31
2025 · Week 6
 M-OH -4.5 39.5 14243639 U M-OH Q3 25–14
2025 · Week 6
 ARIZ -23.5 56.5 17304454 U ARIZ Q3 13–41
2025 · Week 6
 WMU -12.5 45.5 3101724 U WMU Q4 21–3
CAM @ NCSU
2025 · Week 6
 NCSU -41.5 60.5 28566366 Q3 NCSU Q2 10–56
2025 · Week 6
 VT -4.5 51.5 10385053 Q4 WAKE Q1
Late over
 30–23
2025 · Week 6
 UTSA -6.5 57.5 10174548 U TEM Q3 21–27
2025 · Week 6
 UGA -19.5 49.5 14284249 U UGA Q3 14–35
2025 · Week 6
 CIN -1.5 55.5 17465368 Q4 CIN Q1 30–38
2025 · Week 6
 MICH -17.5 42.5 14172434 U WIS Q1 10–24
2025 · Week 6
 ILL -7.5 55.5 7416170 Q3 ILL Q2 43–27
2025 · Week 6
 PITT -6.5 54.5 10314555 Q4 PITT Q1
Late over
 7–48
2025 · Week 6
 CLEM -15.5 47.5 31383848 Q4 CLEM Q1 38–10
2025 · Week 6
 BAY -4.5 60.5 10344869 Q4 KSU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–35
2025 · Week 6
 NAVY -13.5 51.5 10274165 Q4 AFA Q1 31–34
2025 · Week 6
 ARMY -6.5 55.5 0172444 U ARMY Q3 31–13
2025 · Week 6
 OHIO -14.5 52.5 7142434 U BALL Q1
Lead lost
 14–20
2025 · Week 6
 BYU -19.5 46.5 14384862 Q3 WVU Q1
Late cover flip
 24–38
2025 · Week 6
 SDSU -4.5 40.5 7384869 Q3 SDSU Q1 24–45
2025 · Week 6
 SJSU -2.5 58.5 7385263 Q4 SJSU Q1 28–35
2025 · Week 6
 DEL -2.5 63.5 7274451 U WKU Q3 27–24
2025 · Week 6
 USF -28.5 54.5 23404380 Q4 CLT Q1
Late cover flip
 26–54
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 51

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 61% 31
Q2 10% 5
Q3 22% 11
Q4 8% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 45 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 80% of 46 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over7100% 7
1–32100% 2
4–7757% 4
8–10863% 5
11–14863% 5
15–1710% 0
18–2140% 0
22+140% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.