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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

64 games · 2023 · Week 13 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games64100%By halftime23%In Q31320%In Q42539%In OT12%Stayed under2336%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands69%Over cashed914%Leader lost the game711%
64% went over. Of the 41 overs, 5% had cashed by halftime and 37% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 13% of games.

All 64 games

2023 · Week 13 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 CSU -5.5 53.5 14243151 U HAW Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 13
 UCLA -9.5 50.5 6272740 U CAL Q1 33–7
2023 · Week 13
 FRES -4.5 46.5 10263351 Q4 SDSU Q1
Late over
 18–33
2023 · Week 13
 WYO -11.5 41.5 14274148 Q4 WYO Q1 42–6
2023 · Week 13
 KSU -9.5 47 13345677 Q3 ISU Q1 42–35
2023 · Week 13
 UNC -2.5 55.5 6335959 Q3 NCSU Q1 20–39
2023 · Week 13
 UGA -24.5 59.5 17344454 U GT Q1 31–23
2023 · Week 13
 CLEM -7.5 47.5 17202323 U CLEM Q3 16–7
2023 · Week 13
 KU -7.5 58.5 3313865 Q4 KU Q2
Late over
 49–16
2023 · Week 13
 USF -7 57 14285562 Q4 USF Q2 14–48
2023 · Week 13
 FSU -6.5 49 0192939 U FSU Q4
Late cover flip
 24–15
2023 · Week 13
 ND -26 50 20446579 Q3 ND Q3 56–23
2023 · Week 13
 WVU -12 54.5 7415565 Q3 BAY Q3
Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 USA -6 57 24486296 Q3 TXST Q1 44–52
2023 · Week 13
 WASH -15.5 65 14283545 U WSU Q1 21–24
2023 · Week 13
 JXST -2.5 48 14202037 U NMSU Q1 17–20
2023 · Week 13
 ALA -13.5 47.5 14314151 Q4 AUB Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
2023 · Week 13
 ARIZ -13.5 50 17456782 Q3 ARIZ Q2 59–23
2023 · Week 13
 OKST -16.5 55.5 1330375474 OT BYU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–40
2023 · Week 13
 TENN -28 57.5 21415572 Q4 VAN Q4 24–48
2023 · Week 13
 LIB -18 55 28354270 Q4 UTEP Q4
Late cover flip
 42–28
2023 · Week 13
 ILL -6 47 10415188 Q3 NU Q1 45–43
2023 · Week 13
 WIS -3 46 7284242 U WIS Q3 28–14
2023 · Week 13
 MD -2 45 24455266 Q3 MD Q1 42–24
2023 · Week 13
 VT -1.5 53 10245872 Q3 VT Q1 55–17
2023 · Week 13
 APP -10 63 17445882 Q4 APP Q3 27–55
2023 · Week 13
 JMU -4 51.5 7284970 Q4 JMU Q1 56–14
2023 · Week 13
 MRSH -1.5 52.5 14354956 Q4 MRSH Q1
Late over
 21–35
2023 · Week 13
 WKU -11 54 21415569 Q3 WKU Q1 41–28
2023 · Week 13
 UTAH -21.5 43 7233040 U COLO Q1 17–23
2023 · Week 13
 UL -12.5 53 14455973 Q3 UL Q2 21–52
2023 · Week 13
 UNLV -1 58.5 24304768 Q4 SJSU Q1 37–31
2023 · Week 13
 SYR -1.5 43.5 14243866 Q4 SYR Q2 31–35
2023 · Week 13
 ECU -3 43.5 27445056 Q2 TLSA Q3
Lead lost
 29–27
2023 · Week 13
 UNT -2 72 20425387 Q4 UNT Q4 42–45
2023 · Week 13
 ODU -1.5 51.5 7212849 U GAST Q1
Lead lost
 24–25
2023 · Week 13
 RICE -3 47.5 14173845 U Push 21–24
2023 · Week 13
 MICH -3 46 10244154 Q4 MICH Q1
Late cover flip
 24–30
2023 · Week 13
 LOU -7.5 48 7174569 Q4 UK Q1 38–31
2023 · Week 13
 LSU -13 67 7314572 Q4 TA&M Q1
Late over
 30–42
2023 · Week 13
 PUR -6.5 55.5 7264666 Q4 IU Q1
Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Week 13
 MTSU -3.5 50.5 13192943 U SHSU Q2 20–23
2023 · Week 13
 MASS -2.5 51 6193149 U CONN Q1 31–18
2023 · Week 13
 DUKE -4.5 41.5 6203349 Q4 DUKE Q3 19–30
2023 · Week 13
 UCF -16 61 16233740 U HOU Q4 13–27
2023 · Week 13
 SMU -19.5 46 35667373 Q2 SMU Q1 14–59
2023 · Week 13
 TROY -17 48 7244552 Q4 TROY Q4 35–17
2023 · Week 13
 NIU -20.5 45.5 10274464 Q4 KENT Q1
Lead lost
 37–27
2023 · Week 13
 M-OH -3.5 34.5 13262932 U BALL Q4
Late cover flip
 17–15
2023 · Week 13
 ORE -14 61.5 7283138 U ORE Q3 7–31
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 64

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 48% 31
Q2 20% 13
Q3 16% 10
Q4 13% 8
OT 0% 0
Push 3% 2
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 72% of 61 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 76% of 63 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over15100% 15
1–37100% 7
4–71070% 7
8–10450% 2
11–14580% 4
15–17540% 2
18–21650% 3
22+128% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.