1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

64 games · 2023 · Week 11 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games64100%By halftime35%In Q3914%In Q41930%In OT00%Stayed under3352%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands610%Over cashed46%Leader lost the game46%
48% went over. Of the 31 overs, 10% had cashed by halftime and 39% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.

All 64 games

2023 · Week 11 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 11
 AFA -20 46 7163040 U HAW Q1 13–27
2023 · Week 11
 ORE -17 78 20364363 U USC Q1 27–36
2023 · Week 11
 SJSU -2 52 24384560 Q4 SJSU Q1 18–42
2023 · Week 11
 ISU -7.5 41 24385858 Q3 ISU Q1 45–13
2023 · Week 11
 BOIS -27.5 58.5 22465356 U BOIS Q4 14–42
2023 · Week 11
 UCLA -14 45.5 031024 U ASU Q1 17–7
2023 · Week 11
 UNC -10 53 1030337292 Q4 DUKE Q2
Lead lost
 45–47
2023 · Week 11
 OSU -32.5 48.5 14384141 U OSU Q3 3–38
2023 · Week 11
 TEX -13 56 13323255 U TCU Q4 29–26
2023 · Week 11
 LSU -16.5 68 14316687 Q4 LSU Q4
Late cover flip
 35–52
2023 · Week 11
 TA&M -16.5 40 24445861 Q2 TA&M Q2 10–51
2023 · Week 11
 UTSA -14 55 3173848 U UTSA Q3 14–34
2023 · Week 11
 UGA -11 58.5 21425269 Q4 UGA Q2 17–52
2023 · Week 11
 OU -13 60 21456579 Q3 OU Q2 20–59
2023 · Week 11
 HOU -3 53.5 7212438 U CIN Q1 24–14
2023 · Week 11
 GASO -1 56.5 13375071 Q4 MRSH Q4 33–38
2023 · Week 11
 CSU -3.5 47 5152841 U SDSU Q4
Late cover flip
 19–22
2023 · Week 11
 ORST -21.5 52 21447279 Q3 ORST Q2 17–62
2023 · Week 11
 USA -14 55 10172735 U ARST Q4
Late cover flip
 14–21
2023 · Week 11
 ARK -2.5 47 24305158 Q3 AUB Q1 48–10
2023 · Week 11
 CAL -2 60 21495281 Q4 CAL Q1 39–42
2023 · Week 11
 FAU -7.5 44.5 7202029 U ECU Q1 22–7
2023 · Week 11
 FSU -14.5 50.5 7203347 U MIA Q1 20–27
2023 · Week 11
 WASH -9 49 17526363 Q2 UTAH Q1 28–35
2023 · Week 11
 TENN -2 59 0202943 U MIZ Q1 7–36
2023 · Week 11
 OKST -2 64 14244148 U UCF Q1 3–45
2023 · Week 11
 MTSU -10.5 51.5 17373746 U MTSU Q1 6–40
2023 · Week 11
 MINN -2 48 24485579 Q3 PUR Q1 30–49
2023 · Week 11
 WIS -12 43.5 10272734 U NU Q1 24–10
2023 · Week 11
 WKU -4.5 54 17384567 Q4 NMSU Q2
Late over
 38–29
2023 · Week 11
 PITT -3.5 38 10203441 Q4 SYR Q3 13–28
2023 · Week 11
 UAB -2.5 52 10131637 U NAVY Q1 6–31
2023 · Week 11
 TXST -2.5 55 17313854 U CCU Q2 23–31
2023 · Week 11
 KSU -21 55 28487184 Q3 KSU Q2 25–59
2023 · Week 11
 LT -7.5 49 10204869 Q4 SHSU Q1 42–27
2023 · Week 11
 USU -15 54.5 14344465 Q4 USU Q3 24–41
2023 · Week 11
 ARIZ -8 55.5 21415565 Q4 COLO Q1 34–31
2023 · Week 11
 JMU -25.5 48 3163650 Q4 JMU Q4
Late over
 6–44
2023 · Week 11
 NCSU -1.5 43 7212132 U NCSU Q1 26–6
2023 · Week 11
 MEM -10 51.5 731457682 Q4 CLT Q1
Lead lost
 44–38
2023 · Week 11
 GAST -3 62.5 7212856 U APP Q1 42–14
2023 · Week 11
 TROY -21.5 45.5 7213159 Q4 TROY Q4 45–14
2023 · Week 11
 LIB -14 60.5 14384148 U LIB Q2 10–38
2023 · Week 11
 MICH -4.5 44.5 3232639 U MICH Q2 24–15
2023 · Week 11
 ALA -11.5 47 28354970 Q3 ALA Q1 49–21
2023 · Week 11
 KU -4 62.5 10101329 U TTU Q1 16–13
2023 · Week 11
 TULN -24.5 53 14243446 U TLSA Q1 22–24
HC @ ARMY
2023 · Week 11
 ARMY -11 55.5 7141431 U HC Q4 14–17
2023 · Week 11
 ILL -4.5 44 1653608493 Q2 IU Q4
Late cover flip
 45–48
2023 · Week 11
 MD -2 42.5 071723 U MD Q4
Late cover flip
 13–10
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 64

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 48% 31
Q2 17% 11
Q3 9% 6
Q4 25% 16
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 87% and covered 79% of 61 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 78% of 63 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over12100% 12
1–34100% 4
4–7667% 4
8–10475% 3
11–143100% 3
15–17540% 2
18–211030% 3
22+200% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.