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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Went over in Q4: 283 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 TEX -3.5 61.5 14425268 Q4 WASH Q1 31–37
2023 · Postseason
 LSU -9.5 60 14355966 Q4 WIS Q1
Late over Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Postseason
 PSU -5.5 53 13374863 Q4 MISS Q1 38–25
2023 · Postseason
 MEM -10 58 19355662 Q4 Push 26–36
2023 · Postseason
 ND -5.5 40.5 7142448 Q4 ND Q1 8–40
2023 · Postseason
 CLEM -3.5 44 10243173 Q4 UK Q1
Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 ARIZ -2.5 60 10274562 Q4 ARIZ Q4
Late over
 38–24
2023 · Postseason
 RUTG -2.5 41.5 7243855 Q4 RUTG Q1 31–24
2023 · Postseason
 LOU -5 58 14425670 Q4 USC Q1 28–42
2023 · Postseason
 KU -7.5 65 14385285 Q4 KU Q4 49–36
2023 · Postseason
 TXST -3.5 59.5 21455966 Q4 TXST Q3
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Postseason
 MINN -2.5 44.5 13193354 Q4 MINN Q3 24–30
2023 · Postseason
 AFA -2.5 44 14284252 Q4 AFA Q2 21–31
2023 · Postseason
 USU -2.5 58.5 35455267 Q4 GAST Q1 45–22
2023 · Postseason
 UTSA -7 47 7384552 Q4 UTSA Q3 35–17
2023 · Postseason
 ODU -4.5 49.5 2135497073 Q4 WKU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 UCLA -6.5 46 13234457 Q4 UCLA Q3 35–22
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Postseason
 GASO -2 48.5 3204862 Q4 OHIO Q1 21–41
2023 · Week 14
 TROY -5.5 52 0213872 Q4 TROY Q4 23–49
2023 · Week 14
 BOIS -2 61.5 21486164 Q4 BOIS Q1
Late over
 44–20
2023 · Week 14
 TEX -14.5 57.5 28495670 Q4 TEX Q2 21–49
2023 · Week 13
 FRES -4.5 46.5 10263351 Q4 SDSU Q1
Late over
 18–33
2023 · Week 13
 WYO -11.5 41.5 14274148 Q4 WYO Q1 42–6
2023 · Week 13
 KU -7.5 58.5 3313865 Q4 KU Q2
Late over
 49–16
2023 · Week 13
 USF -7 57 14285562 Q4 USF Q2 14–48
2023 · Week 13
 ALA -13.5 47.5 14314151 Q4 AUB Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
2023 · Week 13
 TENN -28 57.5 21415572 Q4 VAN Q4 24–48
2023 · Week 13
 LIB -18 55 28354270 Q4 UTEP Q4
Late cover flip
 42–28
2023 · Week 13
 APP -10 63 17445882 Q4 APP Q3 27–55
2023 · Week 13
 JMU -4 51.5 7284970 Q4 JMU Q1 56–14
2023 · Week 13
 MRSH -1.5 52.5 14354956 Q4 MRSH Q1
Late over
 21–35
2023 · Week 13
 UNLV -1 58.5 24304768 Q4 SJSU Q1 37–31
2023 · Week 13
 SYR -1.5 43.5 14243866 Q4 SYR Q2 31–35
2023 · Week 13
 UNT -2 72 20425387 Q4 UNT Q4 42–45
2023 · Week 13
 MICH -3 46 10244154 Q4 MICH Q1
Late cover flip
 24–30
2023 · Week 13
 LOU -7.5 48 7174569 Q4 UK Q1 38–31
2023 · Week 13
 LSU -13 67 7314572 Q4 TA&M Q1
Late over
 30–42
2023 · Week 13
 PUR -6.5 55.5 7264666 Q4 IU Q1
Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Week 13
 DUKE -4.5 41.5 6203349 Q4 DUKE Q3 19–30
2023 · Week 13
 TROY -17 48 7244552 Q4 TROY Q4 35–17
2023 · Week 13
 NIU -20.5 45.5 10274464 Q4 KENT Q1
Lead lost
 37–27
2023 · Week 13
 MIZ -10 54 10204162 Q4 MIZ Q2 48–14
2023 · Week 13
 BOIS -7 44.5 3234346 Q4 BOIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 19–27
2023 · Week 13
 USU -5 59 2131456285 Q4 UNM Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 44–41
2023 · Week 13
 MIA -10 50 14354965 Q4 MIA Q2 45–20
2023 · Week 13
 MEM -13 64 20344966 Q4 MEM Q2
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Week 12
 GT -6 51.5 10204053 Q4 GT Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 22–31
2023 · Week 12
 MIZ -12.5 56.5 10204464 Q4 FLA Q1 31–33
UNA @ FSU
2023 · Week 12
 FSU -47.5 62 13375171 Q4 UNA Q1
Late over
 13–58
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 283

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.