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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Went over in Q3: 116 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 UGA -23.5 47 7455966 Q3 UGA Q2 63–3
2023 · Postseason
 VT -13 43.5 17274461 Q3 VT Q4 41–20
2023 · Postseason
 EMU -17.5 42.5 17416269 Q3 USA Q1 10–59
2023 · Week 14
 LIB -10 58 14427084 Q3 LIB Q4 35–49
2023 · Week 13
 KSU -9.5 47 13345677 Q3 ISU Q1 42–35
2023 · Week 13
 UNC -2.5 55.5 6335959 Q3 NCSU Q1 20–39
2023 · Week 13
 ND -26 50 20446579 Q3 ND Q3 56–23
2023 · Week 13
 WVU -12 54.5 7415565 Q3 BAY Q3
Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 USA -6 57 24486296 Q3 TXST Q1 44–52
2023 · Week 13
 ARIZ -13.5 50 17456782 Q3 ARIZ Q2 59–23
2023 · Week 13
 ILL -6 47 10415188 Q3 NU Q1 45–43
2023 · Week 13
 MD -2 45 24455266 Q3 MD Q1 42–24
2023 · Week 13
 VT -1.5 53 10245872 Q3 VT Q1 55–17
2023 · Week 13
 WKU -11 54 21415569 Q3 WKU Q1 41–28
2023 · Week 13
 UL -12.5 53 14455973 Q3 UL Q2 21–52
2023 · Week 13
 TEX -15.5 53.5 17335764 Q3 TEX Q2 7–57
2023 · Week 13
 OU -10.5 65.5 275890114 Q3 OU Q2 45–69
2023 · Week 12
 ARK -26.5 50 20445864 Q3 FIU Q1 20–44
2023 · Week 12
 VT -2.5 41 0284963 Q3 NCSU Q1 35–28
2023 · Week 12
 AFA -3 47 14415558 Q3 UNLV Q3 31–27
2023 · Week 12
 TXST -3 60 245287108 Q3 ARST Q1 31–77
2023 · Week 12
 JXST -10 55 28527373 Q3 JXST Q1 17–56
2023 · Week 12
 MTSU -8.5 48 21455564 Q3 UTEP Q1 30–34
2023 · Week 12
 MICH -18 51 19335355 Q3 MD Q1 31–24
UTC @ ALA
2023 · Week 12
 ALA -44.5 54.5 21456276 Q3 ALA Q4 10–66
2023 · Week 12
 LOU PK 46 28415169 Q3 LOU Q4
Late cover flip
 38–31
2023 · Week 12
 CCU -1 40.5 14354249 Q3 ARMY Q1 21–28
2023 · Week 12
 WSU -3.5 59.5 28496370 Q3 WSU Q1 14–56
2023 · Week 11
 ISU -7.5 41 24385858 Q3 ISU Q1 45–13
2023 · Week 11
 OU -13 60 21456579 Q3 OU Q2 20–59
2023 · Week 11
 ORST -21.5 52 21447279 Q3 ORST Q2 17–62
2023 · Week 11
 ARK -2.5 47 24305158 Q3 AUB Q1 48–10
2023 · Week 11
 MINN -2 48 24485579 Q3 PUR Q1 30–49
2023 · Week 11
 KSU -21 55 28487184 Q3 KSU Q2 25–59
2023 · Week 11
 ALA -11.5 47 28354970 Q3 ALA Q1 49–21
2023 · Week 11
 VT -2.5 47.5 17385370 Q3 VT Q1 48–22
2023 · Week 11
 TOL -20 45 21385172 Q3 TOL Q1 23–49
2023 · Week 10
 ALA -3 61 21426370 Q3 ALA Q3 28–42
2023 · Week 10
 WASH -3 75.5 21638494 Q3 WASH Q4
Late cover flip
 52–42
2023 · Week 10
 SMU -12.5 58.5 21456167 Q3 RICE Q1 36–31
2023 · Week 10
 LIB -14 59 17386686 Q3 LIB Q2 30–56
2023 · Week 10
 FAU PK 59 7426387 Q3 UAB Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2023 · Week 10
 MEM -13.5 68 286387109 Q3 USF Q2 50–59
2023 · Week 10
 ND -3.5 43 13335454 Q3 CLEM Q1 23–31
2023 · Week 10
 TENN -34.5 55 17385962 Q3 TENN Q3 3–59
2023 · Week 10
 SC -14 55 21355666 Q3 JXST Q1 28–38
2023 · Week 10
 NIU -6.5 48 10275468 Q3 CMU Q1 31–37
2023 · Week 9
 JMU -19.5 48 10245457 Q3 ODU Q1 27–30
2023 · Week 9
 WSU -4.5 49 14455565 Q3 ASU Q1 27–38
2023 · Week 9
 APP -16 55.5 14385986 Q3 USM Q1 38–48
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 116

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.