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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Over cashed in the last 5 minutes: 103 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Postseason
 LSU -9.5 60 14355966 Q4 WIS Q1
Late over Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Postseason
 ARIZ -2.5 60 10274562 Q4 ARIZ Q4
Late over
 38–24
2023 · Postseason
 TXST -3.5 59.5 21455966 Q4 TXST Q3
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 14
 BOIS -2 61.5 21486164 Q4 BOIS Q1
Late over
 44–20
2023 · Week 13
 FRES -4.5 46.5 10263351 Q4 SDSU Q1
Late over
 18–33
2023 · Week 13
 KU -7.5 58.5 3313865 Q4 KU Q2
Late over
 49–16
2023 · Week 13
 ALA -13.5 47.5 14314151 Q4 AUB Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
2023 · Week 13
 OKST -16.5 55.5 1330375474 OT BYU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–40
2023 · Week 13
 MRSH -1.5 52.5 14354956 Q4 MRSH Q1
Late over
 21–35
2023 · Week 13
 LSU -13 67 7314572 Q4 TA&M Q1
Late over
 30–42
2023 · Week 13
 BOIS -7 44.5 3234346 Q4 BOIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 19–27
2023 · Week 13
 USU -5 59 2131456285 Q4 UNM Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 44–41
2023 · Week 13
 MEM -13 64 20344966 Q4 MEM Q2
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Week 12
 GT -6 51.5 10204053 Q4 GT Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 22–31
2023 · Week 12
 WIS -7 36.5 1424313441 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over
 17–24
UNA @ FSU
2023 · Week 12
 FSU -47.5 62 13375171 Q4 UNA Q1
Late over
 13–58
2023 · Week 12
 ND -24 47.5 7243852 Q4 ND Q4
Late over
 7–45
2023 · Week 12
 ARIZ -2.5 47.5 21353860 Q4 ARIZ Q1
Late over
 18–42
2023 · Week 12
 WYO -13.5 45 14354451 Q4 WYO Q1
Late over
 9–42
2023 · Week 12
 SMU -9.5 64 17274972 Q4 MEM Q1
Late over
 38–34
2023 · Week 12
 EMU -3 39.5 028283457 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 27–30
2023 · Week 11
 WKU -4.5 54 17384567 Q4 NMSU Q2
Late over
 38–29
2023 · Week 11
 JMU -25.5 48 3163650 Q4 JMU Q4
Late over
 6–44
2023 · Week 11
 LOU -20.5 50 7143555 Q4 UVA Q1
Late over
 24–31
2023 · Week 11
 UL -7.5 52.5 728355665 Q4 USM Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 10
 FRES -2.5 54 13304467 Q4 FRES Q1
Late over
 30–37
2023 · Week 10
 MICH -31 53.5 17263354 Q4 PUR Q1
Late over
 13–41
2023 · Week 10
 TLSA -4 48 1427325259 Q4 CLT Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 33–26
2023 · Week 10
 ODU -1 51.5 7133452 Q4 CCU Q4
Late over
 28–24
2023 · Week 10
 NAVY -6.5 46.5 10172550 Q4 TEM Q1
Late over
 18–32
2023 · Week 10
 SHSU -16.5 42.5 14283545 Q4 KENN Q1
Late over Lead lost
 21–24
2023 · Week 10
 OSU -19 44 7163051 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 35–16
2023 · Week 10
 FLA -3 49 2834436675 Q4 ARK Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 39–36
2023 · Week 10
 NEB -3 35.5 3202337 Q4 MSU Q1
Late over
 17–20
2023 · Week 10
 TTU -2.5 58.5 14274963 Q4 TTU Q2
Late over
 28–35
2023 · Week 9
 OKST -7 53 14173858 Q4 OKST Q3
Late over
 13–45
2023 · Week 9
 ULM -1 55.5 10193358 Q4 ARST Q1
Late over
 34–24
2023 · Week 9
 PUR -1.5 39.5 0142145 Q4 NEB Q1
Late over
 14–31
2023 · Week 9
 MIA -18.5 48 713374655 OT UVA Q1
Late over
 26–29
2023 · Week 9
 MEM -6.5 69.5 21415287 Q4 UNT Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 45–42
2023 · Week 9
 OU -7.5 66.5 7385371 Q4 KU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 33–38
2023 · Week 9
 PSU -31 45 14313857 Q4 IU Q1
Late over
 24–33
2023 · Week 9
 LIB -4 61.5 14243171 Q4 LIB Q3
Late over
 42–29
2023 · Week 8
 CLEM -6 45 714243448 OT MIA Q4
Late over Lead lost
 20–28
2023 · Week 8
 MICH -25.5 46.5 14284249 Q4 MICH Q2
Late over
 49–0
2023 · Week 8
 LSU -33 60 14384862 Q4 LSU Q2
Late over
 0–62
2023 · Week 8
 HAW -1.5 60 21424963 Q4 UNM Q1
Late over
 21–42
2023 · Week 8
 ORE -19.5 60.5 6304762 Q4 WSU Q1
Late cover flip Late over
 24–38
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 103

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.