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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 56 games

2023 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Postseason
 LSU -9.5 60 14355966 Q4 WIS Q1
Late over Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Postseason
 WYO -5.5 44 3162131 U TOL Q1
Lead lost
 15–16
2023 · Postseason
 CLEM -3.5 44 10243173 Q4 UK Q1
Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 ODU -4.5 49.5 2135497073 Q4 WKU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 WVU -12 54.5 7415565 Q3 BAY Q3
Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 ALA -13.5 47.5 14314151 Q4 AUB Q1
Late over Lead lost
 27–24
2023 · Week 13
 OKST -16.5 55.5 1330375474 OT BYU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–40
2023 · Week 13
 ECU -3 43.5 27445056 Q2 TLSA Q3
Lead lost
 29–27
2023 · Week 13
 ODU -1.5 51.5 7212849 U GAST Q1
Lead lost
 24–25
2023 · Week 13
 PUR -6.5 55.5 7264666 Q4 IU Q1
Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Week 13
 NIU -20.5 45.5 10274464 Q4 KENT Q1
Lead lost
 37–27
2023 · Week 12
 IOWA -3 33.5 5191928 U ILL Q1
Lead lost
 13–15
2023 · Week 12
 TOL -9.5 50 21384563 Q4 BGSU Q1
Lead lost
 32–31
2023 · Week 12
 EMU -3 39.5 028283457 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 27–30
2023 · Week 11
 UNC -10 53 1030337292 Q4 DUKE Q2
Lead lost
 45–47
2023 · Week 11
 MEM -10 51.5 731457682 Q4 CLT Q1
Lead lost
 44–38
2023 · Week 11
 UL -7.5 52.5 728355665 Q4 USM Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 11
 NIU -9 44 7202037 U BALL Q1
Lead lost
 20–17
2023 · Week 10
 TLSA -4 48 1427325259 Q4 CLT Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 33–26
2023 · Week 10
 MINN -2.5 44 21314153 Q4 ILL Q3
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–26
2023 · Week 10
 FAU PK 59 7426387 Q3 UAB Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2023 · Week 10
 SHSU -16.5 42.5 14283545 Q4 KENN Q1
Late over Lead lost
 21–24
2023 · Week 10
 FLA -3 49 2834436675 Q4 ARK Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 39–36
2023 · Week 10
 AKR -3.5 40 13303758 Q4 AKR Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 27–31
2023 · Week 9
 UNC -12 65.5 14525988 Q4 GT Q2
Lead lost
 42–46
2023 · Week 9
 OU -7.5 66.5 7385371 Q4 KU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 33–38
2023 · Week 8
 CLEM -6 45 714243448 OT MIA Q4
Late over Lead lost
 20–28
2023 · Week 8
 APP -6 56 7314149 U ODU Q2
Lead lost
 21–28
2023 · Week 8
 WIS -3 41 7212846 Q4 WIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 25–21
2023 · Week 8
 CONN -1 57 7242445 U USF Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 24–21
2023 · Week 8
 PITT -3 45 7141438 U WAKE Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–21
2023 · Week 8
 WKU -7.5 60.5 10272737 U JXST Q2
Lead lost
 17–20
2023 · Week 7
 BOIS -7.5 59.5 7172761 Q4 CSU Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 30–31
2023 · Week 7
 TXST -19.5 64.5 10161941 U ULM Q1
Lead lost
 20–21
2023 · Week 7
 WASH -3.5 68.5 22405569 Q4 ORE Q3
Late over Lead lost
 33–36
2023 · Week 7
 KU -2.5 52.5 24495971 Q3 OKST Q4
Lead lost
 32–39
2023 · Week 7
 SC -1.5 49.5 24455180 Q3 FLA Q2
Late cover flip Lead lost
 41–39
2023 · Week 7
 COLO -13.5 57.5 1429487289 Q4 STAN Q3
Lead lost
 46–43
2023 · Week 6
 UL -1 67.5 17344464 U UL Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 30–34
2023 · Week 5
 APP -13.5 50.5 28567581 Q2 ULM Q1
Lead lost
 41–40
2023 · Week 5
 ND -5.5 52.5 7102035 U ND Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 21–14
2023 · Week 5
 LSU -3 67 285976104 Q3 MISS Q4
Lead lost
 49–55
2023 · Week 5
 UCF -8 56 28354571 Q4 BAY Q4
Lead lost
 36–35
2023 · Week 5
 JXST -7 36 2128355663 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 35–28
2023 · Week 4
 OSU -3 55.5 031731 U Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–14
2023 · Week 4
 MINN -12 39.5 731416271 Q3 NU Q4
Lead lost
 34–37
2023 · Week 4
 WYO -3 45 6191941 U Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 19–22
2023 · Week 3
 COLO -23 63 2835355678 OT CSU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 35–43
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 56

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.