Does the side the model likes against the spread cover?
NFL games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.
Model side covered
50.5%
of the model’s spread picks covered
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ35%break-even 52.4%70%
46–45 record
91 games
40–61% 95% range
91 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)
By season
Is it the same every year?
| Season | Games | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | 11–11 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 30 | 19–11 | 63.3% |
| 2025 | 32 | 12–20 | 37.5% |
| 2026 so far | 7 | 4–3 | 57.1% |
By spread edge size
Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
| Edge size | Games | Record | Hit rate | And up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5 | 38 | 23–15 | 60.5% | 53.0% 83 |
| 2–3.5 | 24 | 12–12 | 50.0% | 46.7% 45 |
| 4–5.5 | 13 | 5–8 | 38.5% | 42.9% 21 |
| 6+ | 8 | 4–4 | 50.0% | 50.0% 8 |
91 games
Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
| Game | Closing | Spread edge | Result | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 JAX -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–31 |
JAX -2.5 · 42.5 | HOU +2.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | W | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 5 PIT -3 · 42.5 · final 22–34 |
PIT -3 · 42.5 | IND +3 underdog · edge 1.5 | L | 22–34 |
2026 · Week 5 WSH -3.5 · 41.5 · final 27–27 |
WSH -3.5 · 41.5 | NYG +3.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 27–27 |
2026 · Week 4 PIT -2.5 · 38.5 · final 24–27 |
PIT -2.5 · 38.5 | CLE +2.5 underdog · edge 1.5 | W | 24–27 |
2026 · Week 3 NYG -2.5 · 37.5 · final 7–12 |
NYG -2.5 · 37.5 | NYG -2.5 favorite · edge 4.5 | W | 7–12 |
2026 · Week 3 SEA -8.5 · 40.5 · final 31–33 |
SEA -8.5 · 40.5 | SEA -8.5 favorite · edge 2.5 | L | 31–33 |
2026 · Week 1 KC -2.5 · 42.5 · final 10–31 |
KC -2.5 · 42.5 | DEN +2.5 underdog · edge 5.5 | L | 10–31 |
2025 · Postseason PHI -5.5 · 44.5 · final 23–19 |
PHI -5.5 · 44.5 | SF +5.5 underdog · edge 6 | W | 23–19 |
2025 · Postseason LAR -10 · 44.5 · final 34–31 |
LAR -10 · 44.5 | LAR -10 favorite · edge 1 | L | 34–31 |
2025 · Week 17 CIN -7 · 53.5 · final 14–37 |
CIN -7 · 53.5 | ARI +7 underdog · edge 6 | L | 14–37 |
2025 · Week 17 PIT -3.5 · 34.5 · final 6–13 |
PIT -3.5 · 34.5 | CLE +3.5 underdog · edge 0 | W | 6–13 |
2025 · Week 17 NO -1.5 · 38.5 · final 34–26 |
NO -1.5 · 38.5 | NO -1.5 favorite · edge 1 | W | 34–26 |
2025 · Week 16 BUF -10.5 · 41.5 · final 23–20 |
BUF -10.5 · 41.5 | BUF -10.5 favorite · edge 0 | L | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 16 MIN -2.5 · 41.5 · final 16–13 |
MIN -2.5 · 41.5 | NYG +2.5 underdog · edge 3.5 | L | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 16 CHI -1.5 · 44.5 · final 16–22 |
CHI -1.5 · 44.5 | GB +1.5 underdog · edge 4.5 | L | 16–22 |
2025 · Week 16 SEA -1.5 · 42.5 · final 37–38 |
SEA -1.5 · 42.5 | LAR +1.5 underdog · edge 1 | W | 37–38 |
2025 · Week 15 PHI -12.5 · 36.5 · final 0–31 |
PHI -12.5 · 36.5 | PHI -12.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | W | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 13 BUF -3 · 44.5 · final 26–7 |
BUF -3 · 44.5 | BUF -3 favorite · edge 3 | W | 26–7 |
2025 · Week 13 SF -5.5 · 35.5 · final 26–8 |
SF -5.5 · 35.5 | SF -5.5 favorite · edge 0 | W | 26–8 |
2025 · Week 13 PHI -7 · 43.5 · final 24–15 |
PHI -7 · 43.5 | CHI +7 underdog · edge 1 | W | 24–15 |
2025 · Week 11 PHI -2.5 · 45.5 · final 9–16 |
PHI -2.5 · 45.5 | DET +2.5 underdog · edge 4.5 | L | 9–16 |
2025 · Week 11 BAL -7.5 · 37.5 · final 23–16 |
BAL -7.5 · 37.5 | BAL -7.5 favorite · edge 0 | L | 23–16 |
2025 · Week 11 BUF -6.5 · 44.5 · final 32–44 |
BUF -6.5 · 44.5 | TB +6.5 underdog · edge 2 | L | 32–44 |
2025 · Week 11 GB -7.5 · 42.5 · final 27–20 |
GB -7.5 · 42.5 | GB -7.5 favorite · edge 3 | L | 27–20 |
2025 · Week 11 PIT -5.5 · 47.5 · final 12–34 |
PIT -5.5 · 47.5 | CIN +5.5 underdog · edge 1 | L | 12–34 |
2025 · Week 11 LAC -2.5 · 42.5 · final 6–35 |
LAC -2.5 · 42.5 | LAC -2.5 favorite · edge 2 | L | 6–35 |
2025 · Week 10 CHI -4.5 · 44.5 · final 20–24 |
CHI -4.5 · 44.5 | NYG +4.5 underdog · edge 1 | W | 20–24 |
2025 · Week 10 CAR -5.5 · 38.5 · final 17–7 |
CAR -5.5 · 38.5 | NO +5.5 underdog · edge 2 | W | 17–7 |
2025 · Week 9 GB -13.5 · 43.5 · final 16–13 |
GB -13.5 · 43.5 | CAR +13.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 7 CHI -3.5 · 43.5 · final 14–26 |
CHI -3.5 · 43.5 | CHI -3.5 favorite · edge 1.5 | W | 14–26 |
2025 · Week 7 CLE -2.5 · 35.5 · final 6–31 |
CLE -2.5 · 35.5 | MIA +2.5 underdog · edge 3 | L | 6–31 |
2025 · Week 7 NE -6.5 · 41.5 · final 31–13 |
NE -6.5 · 41.5 | TEN +6.5 underdog · edge 0 | L | 31–13 |
2025 · Week 7 NYJ -1.5 · 39.5 · final 13–6 |
NYJ -1.5 · 39.5 | NYJ -1.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | L | 13–6 |
2025 · Week 6 WSH -5.5 · 48.5 · final 25–24 |
WSH -5.5 · 48.5 | WSH -5.5 favorite · edge 1.5 | L | 25–24 |
2025 · Week 6 DAL -2.5 · 45.5 · final 27–30 |
DAL -2.5 · 45.5 | DAL -2.5 favorite · edge 1.5 | L | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 6 LAR -6.5 · 44.5 · final 17–3 |
LAR -6.5 · 44.5 | BAL +6.5 underdog · edge 0 | L | 17–3 |
2025 · Week 5 MIN -3.5 · 35.5 · final 21–17 |
MIN -3.5 · 35.5 | CLE +3.5 underdog · edge 1 | L | 21–17 |
2025 · Week 3 JAX -1.5 · 42.5 · final 10–17 |
JAX -1.5 · 42.5 | HOU +1.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | L | 10–17 |
2025 · Week 2 PHI -1.5 · 46.5 · final 20–17 |
PHI -1.5 · 46.5 | KC +1.5 underdog · edge 1 | L | 20–17 |
2024 · Week 18 NYJ -2.5 · 39.5 · final 20–32 |
NYJ -2.5 · 39.5 | NYJ -2.5 favorite · edge 1 | W | 20–32 |
2024 · Week 18 BUF -3.5 · 36.5 · final 16–23 |
BUF -3.5 · 36.5 | BUF -3.5 favorite · edge 8.5 | L | 16–23 |
2024 · Week 18 PHI -2.5 · 35.5 · final 13–20 |
PHI -2.5 · 35.5 | PHI -2.5 favorite · edge 13.5 | W | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 18 BAL -20.5 · 41.5 · final 10–35 |
BAL -20.5 · 41.5 | CLE +20.5 underdog · edge 5 | L | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 17 WSH -3.5 · 46.5 · final 24–30 |
WSH -3.5 · 46.5 | ATL +3.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | L | 24–30 |
2024 · Week 17 BUF -10.5 · 44.5 · final 14–40 |
BUF -10.5 · 44.5 | BUF -10.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | W | 14–40 |
2024 · Week 17 TB -9.5 · 47.5 · final 14–48 |
TB -9.5 · 47.5 | TB -9.5 favorite · edge 3.5 | W | 14–48 |
2024 · Week 16 MIN -2.5 · 43.5 · final 27–24 |
MIN -2.5 · 43.5 | SEA +2.5 underdog · edge 0 | L | 27–24 |
2024 · Week 15 KC -3.5 · 41.5 · final 21–7 |
KC -3.5 · 41.5 | KC -3.5 favorite · edge 2 | W | 21–7 |
2024 · Week 15 CIN -6.5 · 46.5 · final 37–27 |
CIN -6.5 · 46.5 | TEN +6.5 underdog · edge 3 | L | 37–27 |
2024 · Week 14 NO -5.5 · 41.5 · final 14–11 |
NO -5.5 · 41.5 | NYG +5.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 14–11 |
HOU
JAX
IND
PIT
NYG
WSH
CLE
TEN
SEA
DEN
KC
SF
PHI
LAR
CAR
ARI
CIN
NO
BUF
MIN
GB
CHI
LV
DET
BAL
TB
LAC
MIA
NE
NYJ
DAL
ATLSpread edge is the model’s line minus the closing spread, in points; the side is the team the model likes against the number (a Favorite or an Underdog). Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.