Does the team the spread moved toward cover?
NFL games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.
Moved-toward team covered
47.1%
of the teams the line moved toward covered
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ35%break-even 52.4%70%
24–27 record
51 games
34–60% 95% range
51 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)
By season
Is it the same every year?
| Season | Games | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29 | 16–13 | 55.2% |
| 2025 | 17 | 7–10 | 41.2% |
| 2026 so far | 5 | 1–4 | 20.0% |
By line move size
Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
| Edge size | Games | Record | Hit rate | And up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1 | 25 | 13–12 | 52.0% | 47.1% 51 |
| 1.5–2.5 | 19 | 9–10 | 47.4% | 42.3% 26 |
| 3–4.5 | 5 | 1–4 | 20.0% | 28.6% 7 |
| 5+ | 2 | 1–1 | 50.0% | 50.0% 2 |
51 games
Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
| Game | Closing | Line move | Result | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 JAX -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–31 |
JAX -2.5 · 42.5 | JAX +1.5 → -2.5 moved 4 | L | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 5 PIT -3 · 42.5 · final 22–34 |
PIT -3 · 42.5 | PIT -2.5 → -3 moved 0.5 | W | 22–34 |
2026 · Week 5 WSH -3.5 · 41.5 · final 27–27 |
WSH -3.5 · 41.5 | WSH -2.5 → -3.5 moved 1 | L | 27–27 |
2026 · Week 3 NYG -2.5 · 37.5 · final 7–12 |
NYG -2.5 · 37.5 | TEN +3 → +2.5 moved 0.5 | L | 7–12 |
2026 · Week 3 SEA -8.5 · 40.5 · final 31–33 |
SEA -8.5 · 40.5 | SEA -3.5 → -8.5 moved 5 | L | 31–33 |
2025 · Postseason PHI -5.5 · 44.5 · final 23–19 |
PHI -5.5 · 44.5 | PHI -3 → -5.5 moved 2.5 | L | 23–19 |
2025 · Week 17 CIN -7 · 53.5 · final 14–37 |
CIN -7 · 53.5 | CIN -5.5 → -7 moved 1.5 | W | 14–37 |
2025 · Week 16 BUF -10.5 · 41.5 · final 23–20 |
BUF -10.5 · 41.5 | BUF -8.5 → -10.5 moved 2 | L | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 16 MIN -2.5 · 41.5 · final 16–13 |
MIN -2.5 · 41.5 | MIN -1.5 → -2.5 moved 1 | W | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 16 CHI -1.5 · 44.5 · final 16–22 |
CHI -1.5 · 44.5 | CHI +3 → -1.5 moved 4.5 | W | 16–22 |
2025 · Week 13 SF -5.5 · 35.5 · final 26–8 |
SF -5.5 · 35.5 | CLE +6 → +5.5 moved 0.5 | L | 26–8 |
2025 · Week 13 PHI -7 · 43.5 · final 24–15 |
PHI -7 · 43.5 | PHI -6.5 → -7 moved 0.5 | L | 24–15 |
2025 · Week 11 PHI -2.5 · 45.5 · final 9–16 |
PHI -2.5 · 45.5 | PHI -1.5 → -2.5 moved 1 | W | 9–16 |
2025 · Week 11 BAL -7.5 · 37.5 · final 23–16 |
BAL -7.5 · 37.5 | CLE +9.5 → +7.5 moved 2 | W | 23–16 |
2025 · Week 11 BUF -6.5 · 44.5 · final 32–44 |
BUF -6.5 · 44.5 | BUF -5.5 → -6.5 moved 1 | W | 32–44 |
2025 · Week 11 LAC -2.5 · 42.5 · final 6–35 |
LAC -2.5 · 42.5 | LAC -1.5 → -2.5 moved 1 | L | 6–35 |
2025 · Week 10 CHI -4.5 · 44.5 · final 20–24 |
CHI -4.5 · 44.5 | CHI -3.5 → -4.5 moved 1 | L | 20–24 |
2025 · Week 9 GB -13.5 · 43.5 · final 16–13 |
GB -13.5 · 43.5 | GB -11.5 → -13.5 moved 2 | L | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 7 CHI -3.5 · 43.5 · final 14–26 |
CHI -3.5 · 43.5 | NO +5.5 → +3.5 moved 2 | L | 14–26 |
2025 · Week 6 WSH -5.5 · 48.5 · final 25–24 |
WSH -5.5 · 48.5 | WSH -4.5 → -5.5 moved 1 | L | 25–24 |
2025 · Week 6 DAL -2.5 · 45.5 · final 27–30 |
DAL -2.5 · 45.5 | CAR +3.5 → +2.5 moved 1 | W | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 6 LAR -6.5 · 44.5 · final 17–3 |
LAR -6.5 · 44.5 | BAL +7.5 → +6.5 moved 1 | L | 17–3 |
2024 · Week 18 NYJ -2.5 · 39.5 · final 20–32 |
NYJ -2.5 · 39.5 | NYJ +2.5 → -2.5 moved 5 | W | 20–32 |
2024 · Week 18 BUF -3.5 · 36.5 · final 16–23 |
BUF -3.5 · 36.5 | BUF -2 → -3.5 moved 1.5 | L | 16–23 |
2024 · Week 18 PHI -2.5 · 35.5 · final 13–20 |
PHI -2.5 · 35.5 | NYG +3.5 → +2.5 moved 1 | L | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 18 BAL -20.5 · 41.5 · final 10–35 |
BAL -20.5 · 41.5 | BAL -18.5 → -20.5 moved 2 | W | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 17 WSH -3.5 · 46.5 · final 24–30 |
WSH -3.5 · 46.5 | ATL +4.5 → +3.5 moved 1 | L | 24–30 |
2024 · Week 17 BUF -10.5 · 44.5 · final 14–40 |
BUF -10.5 · 44.5 | BUF -9.5 → -10.5 moved 1 | W | 14–40 |
2024 · Week 17 TB -9.5 · 47.5 · final 14–48 |
TB -9.5 · 47.5 | TB -7.5 → -9.5 moved 2 | W | 14–48 |
2024 · Week 16 MIN -2.5 · 43.5 · final 27–24 |
MIN -2.5 · 43.5 | SEA +4.5 → +2.5 moved 2 | L | 27–24 |
2024 · Week 16 BAL -7.5 · 45.5 · final 17–34 |
BAL -7.5 · 45.5 | BAL -6.5 → -7.5 moved 1 | W | 17–34 |
2024 · Week 15 KC -3.5 · 41.5 · final 21–7 |
KC -3.5 · 41.5 | CLE +6.5 → +3.5 moved 3 | L | 21–7 |
2024 · Week 15 CIN -6.5 · 46.5 · final 37–27 |
CIN -6.5 · 46.5 | CIN -5 → -6.5 moved 1.5 | W | 37–27 |
2024 · Week 14 NO -5.5 · 41.5 · final 14–11 |
NO -5.5 · 41.5 | NO -3.5 → -5.5 moved 2 | L | 14–11 |
2024 · Week 14 PHI -13.5 · 44.5 · final 16–22 |
PHI -13.5 · 44.5 | PHI -12.5 → -13.5 moved 1 | L | 16–22 |
2024 · Week 14 PIT -6.5 · 42.5 · final 14–27 |
PIT -6.5 · 42.5 | PIT -5.5 → -6.5 moved 1 | W | 14–27 |
2024 · Week 13 NYJ -1.5 · 41.5 · final 26–21 |
NYJ -1.5 · 41.5 | NYJ +1.5 → -1.5 moved 3 | L | 26–21 |
2024 · Week 12 TB -6.5 · 40.5 · final 30–7 |
TB -6.5 · 40.5 | TB -4 → -6.5 moved 2.5 | W | 30–7 |
2024 · Week 10 CHI -6.5 · 37.5 · final 19–3 |
CHI -6.5 · 37.5 | NE +7 → +6.5 moved 0.5 | W | 19–3 |
2024 · Week 8 BUF -3.5 · 45.5 · final 31–10 |
BUF -3.5 · 45.5 | BUF -2.5 → -3.5 moved 1 | W | 31–10 |
2024 · Week 7 BUF -9.5 · 41.5 · final 10–34 |
BUF -9.5 · 41.5 | BUF -8.5 → -9.5 moved 1 | W | 10–34 |
2024 · Week 7 JAX -6.5 · 41.5 · final 16–32 |
JAX -6.5 · 41.5 | JAX -4.5 → -6.5 moved 2 | W | 16–32 |
2024 · Week 6 BUF -1.5 · 42.5 · final 23–20 |
BUF -1.5 · 42.5 | NYJ +3 → +1.5 moved 1.5 | L | 23–20 |
2024 · Week 5 CHI -3.5 · 39.5 · final 10–36 |
CHI -3.5 · 39.5 | CAR +5.5 → +3.5 moved 2 | L | 10–36 |
2024 · Week 5 BAL -2.5 · 47.5 · final 41–38 |
BAL -2.5 · 47.5 | CIN +3 → +2.5 moved 0.5 | L | 41–38 |
2024 · Week 4 CHI -3.5 · 40.5 · final 18–24 |
CHI -3.5 · 40.5 | CHI -1.5 → -3.5 moved 2 | W | 18–24 |
2024 · Week 3 SF -6.5 · 44.5 · final 24–27 |
SF -6.5 · 44.5 | LAR +7 → +6.5 moved 0.5 | W | 24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 LAC -4.5 · 38.5 · final 26–3 |
LAC -4.5 · 38.5 | LAC -3 → -4.5 moved 1.5 | W | 26–3 |
2024 · Week 1 SF -3.5 · 43.5 · final 19–32 |
SF -3.5 · 43.5 | NYJ +5.5 → +3.5 moved 2 | L | 19–32 |
2024 · Week 1 BUF -6.5 · 45.5 · final 28–34 |
BUF -6.5 · 45.5 | ARI +7 → +6.5 moved 0.5 | W | 28–34 |
HOU
JAX
IND
PIT
NYG
WSH
TEN
SEA
SF
PHI
ARI
CIN
BUF
CLE
MIN
GB
CHI
DET
BAL
TB
LAC
CAR
NO
DAL
LAR
MIA
NYJ
NE
ATL
KCLine move is the closing spread against the opening spread; the side is the team the line moved toward (so the price on it got worse). Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.