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College edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Do totals finish the way they moved (up toward the Over, down toward the Under)?

FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

Went with the move
49.5%
of totals finished the way they moved
Below break-even ⓘ
35%break-even 52.4%70%
940–958 record
1,898 games
47–52% 95% range
1,898 decided games · 2023–2026 · every game with a signal

By season

Is it the same every year?
SeasonGamesRecordHit rate
2024721339–38247.0%
2025736362–37449.2%
2026 so far441239–20254.2%

By total move size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
Edge sizeGamesRecordHit rateAnd up
0.5–1758382–37650.4%49.5% 1,898
1.5–2.5501242–25948.3%48.9% 1,140
3–4.5472245–22751.9%49.5% 639
5+16771–9642.5%42.5% 167

1,898 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
GameClosingTotal moveResultFinal
DUKE @ UVA
2026 · Week 8
UVA -2.5 · 47.5 · final 19–16
 UVA -2.5 · 47.5 Down 6 53.5 → 47.5 W U 19–16
MASS @ CONN
2026 · Week 8
CONN -12.5 · 53.5 · final 16–35
 CONN -12.5 · 53.5 Up 4 49.5 → 53.5 L U 16–35
ECU @ MEM
2026 · Week 8
MEM -10.5 · 55.5 · final 34–41
 MEM -10.5 · 55.5 Up 2 53.5 → 55.5 W O 34–41
LIB @ KENN
2026 · Week 8
LIB -8.5 · 50.5 · final 34–6
 LIB -8.5 · 50.5 Up 3 47.5 → 50.5 L U 34–6
NMSU @ SHSU
2026 · Week 8
NMSU -3 · 46.5 · final 30–24
 NMSU -3 · 46.5 Down 1 47.5 → 46.5 L O 30–24
USA @ MRSH
2026 · Week 8
USA -1.5 · 66.5 · final 13–20
 USA -1.5 · 66.5 Up 4 62.5 → 66.5 L U 13–20
MTSU @ FIU
2026 · Week 8
FIU -10.5 · 46.5 · final 26–23
 FIU -10.5 · 46.5 Up 1 45.5 → 46.5 W O 26–23
MOST @ DEL
2026 · Week 8
DEL -3 · 54.5 · final 38–61
 DEL -3 · 54.5 Up 2 52.5 → 54.5 W O 38–61
NEB @ ORE
2026 · Week 7
ORE -6.5 · 50.5 · final 14–17
 ORE -6.5 · 50.5 Down 1 51.5 → 50.5 W U 14–17
WAKE @ CAL
2026 · Week 7
WAKE -10 · 54.5 · final 41–7
 WAKE -10 · 54.5 Up 1 53.5 → 54.5 L U 41–7
FRES @ SDSU
2026 · Week 7
FRES -6.5 · 46.5 · final 23–26
 FRES -6.5 · 46.5 Up 3 43.5 → 46.5 W O 23–26
UNM @ HAW
2026 · Week 7
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10
 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 Down 2 48.5 → 46.5 W U 21–10
OHIO @ SAC
2026 · Week 7
OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 · final 48–7
 OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 Down 3 49.5 → 46.5 L O 48–7
SJSU @ UTEP
2026 · Week 7
SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 · final 24–11
 SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 Down 6 52.5 → 46.5 W U 24–11
NAVY @ UTSA
2026 · Week 7
UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 · final 34–38
 UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 Down 3 55.5 → 52.5 L O 34–38
LT @ ULM
2026 · Week 7
LT -13.5 · 55.5 · final 24–0
 LT -13.5 · 55.5 Up 3 52.5 → 55.5 L U 24–0
ND @ BYU
2026 · Week 7
ND -10.5 · 47.5 · final 24–28
 ND -10.5 · 47.5 Down 7 54.5 → 47.5 L O 24–28
WIS @ UCLA
2026 · Week 7
UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 · final 7–17
 UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 Down 7 49.5 → 42.5 W U 7–17
UK @ OU
2026 · Week 7
OU -7 · 44.5 · final 21–13
 OU -7 · 44.5 Up 3 41.5 → 44.5 L U 21–13
OKST @ HOU
2026 · Week 7
HOU -4 · 62.5 · final 32–35
 HOU -4 · 62.5 Up 5 57.5 → 62.5 W O 32–35
ELON @ STAN
2026 · Week 7
STAN -33.5 · 55.5 · final 7–34
 STAN -33.5 · 55.5 Down 1 56.5 → 55.5 W U 7–34
LOU @ SYR
2026 · Week 7
LOU -14.5 · 56.5 · final 34–26
 LOU -14.5 · 56.5 Up 1 55.5 → 56.5 W O 34–26
FSU @ MIA
2026 · Week 7
MIA -20.5 · 57.5 · final 35–43
 MIA -20.5 · 57.5 Up 4 53.5 → 57.5 W O 35–43
ARK @ VAN
2026 · Week 7
VAN -5.5 · 48.5 · final 31–21
 VAN -5.5 · 48.5 Down 2 50.5 → 48.5 L O 31–21
TCU @ BAY
2026 · Week 7
BAY -3.5 · 50.5 · final 17–6
 BAY -3.5 · 50.5 Down 1 51.5 → 50.5 W U 17–6
KENT @ USF
2026 · Week 7
USF -20.5 · 46.5 · final 2–29
 USF -20.5 · 46.5 Down 3 49.5 → 46.5 W U 2–29
NEV @ NDSU
2026 · Week 7
NDSU -14.5 · 42.5 · final 17–31
 NDSU -14.5 · 42.5 Down 4 46.5 → 42.5 L O 17–31
ARST @ USM
2026 · Week 7
ARST -5.5 · 61.5 · final 23–13
 ARST -5.5 · 61.5 Up 6 55.5 → 61.5 L U 23–13
TROY @ UL
2026 · Week 7
UL -3 · 49.5 · final 6–33
 UL -3 · 49.5 Up 2 47.5 → 49.5 L U 6–33
TLSA @ RICE
2026 · Week 7
TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 · final 38–17
 TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 Up 1 46.5 → 47.5 W O 38–17
AUB @ UGA
2026 · Week 7
UGA -19.5 · 50.5 · final 27–24
 UGA -19.5 · 50.5 Down 5 55.5 → 50.5 L O 27–24
ALA @ TENN
2026 · Week 7
ALA -7.5 · 50.5 · final 10–26
 ALA -7.5 · 50.5 Down 6 56.5 → 50.5 W U 10–26
ASU @ TTU
2026 · Week 7
TTU -16.5 · 50.5 · final 25–53
 TTU -16.5 · 50.5 Down 2 52.5 → 50.5 L O 25–53
UNC @ DUKE
2026 · Week 7
DUKE -3 · 46.5 · final 24–20
 DUKE -3 · 46.5 Down 8 54.5 → 46.5 W U 24–20
PSU @ MICH
2026 · Week 7
MICH -6 · 43.5 · final 18–21
 MICH -6 · 43.5 Down 8 51.5 → 43.5 W U 18–21
NIU @ WYO
2026 · Week 7
WYO -7 · 42.5 · final 23–41
 WYO -7 · 42.5 Up 4 38.5 → 42.5 W O 23–41
UNLV @ AFA
2026 · Week 7
AFA -1.5 · 49.5 · final 31–41
 AFA -1.5 · 49.5 Up 1 48.5 → 49.5 W O 31–41
TOL @ EMU
2026 · Week 7
TOL -7.5 · 51.5 · final 34–14
 TOL -7.5 · 51.5 Down 1 52.5 → 51.5 W U 34–14
AKR @ M-OH
2026 · Week 7
M-OH -9.5 · 47.5 · final 14–34
 M-OH -9.5 · 47.5 Up 1 46.5 → 47.5 W O 14–34
CLT @ TEM
2026 · Week 7
TEM -17.5 · 47.5 · final 38–31
 TEM -17.5 · 47.5 Down 2 49.5 → 47.5 L O 38–31
MASS @ BUFF
2026 · Week 7
BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 · final 18–25
 BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 Down 4 47.5 → 43.5 W U 18–25
RUTG @ MD
2026 · Week 7
MD -5.5 · 55.5 · final 37–30
 MD -5.5 · 55.5 Down 3 58.5 → 55.5 L O 37–30
OSU @ IU
2026 · Week 7
OSU -3 · 49.5 · final 19–15
 OSU -3 · 49.5 Up 1 48.5 → 49.5 L U 19–15
FLA @ TEX
2026 · Week 7
TEX -13.5 · 51.5 · final 27–24
 TEX -13.5 · 51.5 Down 2 53.5 → 51.5 W U 27–24
MSST @ LSU
2026 · Week 7
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31
 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 Down 3 59.5 → 56.5 W U 0–31
UVA @ SMU
2026 · Week 7
SMU -10 · 51.5 · final 13–23
 SMU -10 · 51.5 Down 2 53.5 → 51.5 W U 13–23
NU @ MSU
2026 · Week 7
NU -7.5 · 50.5 · final 24–21
 NU -7.5 · 50.5 Up 3 47.5 → 50.5 L U 24–21
CIN @ WVU
2026 · Week 7
WVU -1.5 · 64.5 · final 42–45
 WVU -1.5 · 64.5 Up 3 61.5 → 64.5 W O 42–45
KU @ KSU
2026 · Week 7
KSU -3 · 55.5 · final 24–35
 KSU -3 · 55.5 Up 1 54.5 → 55.5 W O 24–35
CHSO @ CLEM
2026 · Week 7
CLEM -42.5 · 53.5 · final 0–37
 CLEM -42.5 · 53.5 Down 5 58.5 → 53.5 W U 0–37
Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 1,000
Total move is the closing total against the opening total; a total that moved up went with the move if the game went Over, and one that moved down if it stayed Under. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.