Pinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska · Conference game
Closing line
NEB -2.5✓ PUR covered by 5.5
NEB -2.5✓ PUR covered by 5.5Closing total146.5Over by 10.5
 PUR | This season | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| 19-4 | Record | 21-2 |
| 10-13 | ATS | 13-10 |
| 9-14 | O/U | 7-16 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PUR 75–72 NEB · ✓ PUR (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 40 | 28 | 12 | 80 |
| NEB | 24 | 44 | 9 | 77 |
1st half: PUR 40, NEB 24 (PUR by 16). The model had PUR by 1.8 and a total of 68.5 (actual 64).
Team stats
| PUR | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-76 37% | Field goals | 26-59 44% |
| 13-46 28% | 3-pointers | 12-32 38% |
| 11-20 55% | Free throws | 13-20 65% |
| 54 21 off | Rebounds | 37 6 off |
| 21 | Assists | 21 |
| 8 | Steals | 4 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Loyer G | 41 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 5-20 | 4-17 |
| Braden Smith G | 40 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 5-15 | 3-9 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 36 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 30 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 30 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-13 | 3-10 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jack Benter G | 19 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Gicarri Harris G | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Omer Mayer G | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Antione West Jr, Jace Rayl, Sam King, Aaron Fine, Jack Lusk, Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy
| NEB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce Sandfort F | 39 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-9 |
| Sam Hoiberg G | 39 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Jamarques Lawrence G | 37 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 6-9 | 2-3 |
| Rienk Mast F | 34 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 6-13 | 4-7 |
| Berke Buyuktuncel C | 24 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Braden Frager F | 33 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Cale Jacobsen G | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Jared Garcia F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Kendall Blue, Ugnius Jarusevicius, Connor Essegian, Henry Burt, Justin Bolis, Will Cooper, Quentin Rhymes, Leo Curtis
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNEB -2.5
ModelPUR -2.9
Model edgePUR +5.4
W PUR covered
Total
Market146.5
Model146.3
Model edgeUnder 0.2
L Over
Projected score
PUR 74.6 · NEB 71.7
PUR 80 · NEB 77
Win probability
PUR 60%
1st half
Spread
PUR -1.8
PUR -16.0
Total
68.5
64 points
Projected score
PUR 35.2 · NEB 33.3
PUR 40 · NEB 24
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEB -2.5
no move
CloseNEB -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
▲ 3
Close146.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
PUR +120 · NEB -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEB -2.5 · unchangedmodel PUR -3
model PUR -3
Opened 143.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 3 upmodel 146.5 matches the line
model 146.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 7-3 70% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
| NEB | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
PUR 4–1 NEBPUR leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · PUR 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2024-25 | NEB 68 @ PUR 104 | PUR -8.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 9, 2023-24 | PUR 72 @ NEB 88 | NEB +7.5 | NEB W |
| Jan 13, 2022-23 | NEB 55 @ PUR 73 | PUR -15.5 | PUR W |
| Dec 10, 2022-23 | PUR 65 @ NEB 62 | NEB +7.5 | NEB W |
| Jan 14, 2021-22 | NEB 65 @ PUR 92 | PUR -20.5 | PUR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Purdue
23 games played
Straight up
19-4
83% wins
Against the spread
10-13
43% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-14
39% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @ RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vs MINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vs WASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vs PSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vs IOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @ UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vs ILL | L 82-88 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 27 | @ IU | L 67-72 | -4.5 | L −9.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 1 | @ MD | W 93-63 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 7 | vs ORE | W 68-64 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
−11.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−9.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+14.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−15.5
covered 10didn’t cover 13avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
24
vsILL
ILLL 82-88
+17.5
27
@IU
IUL 67-72
−11.5
1
@MD
MDW 93-63
+7.5
7
vsORE
OREW 68-64
−12.5
over 9under 14avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Nebraska
23 games played
Straight up
21-2
91% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-16
30% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WGA | W 86-53 | -24.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 8 | vs FIU | W 96-66 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs UMES | W 69-50 | -35.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 15 | vs OU | W 105-99 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 20 | vs UNM | W 84-72 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 21 | vs KSU | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs WIN | W 80-73 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 166.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 29 | vs UPST | W 72-63 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 7 | vs CREI | W 71-50 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 10 | vsWIS | W 90-60 | -1.5 | W +28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ILL | W 83-80 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs UND | W 78-55 | -29.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 30 | vs UNH | W 86-55 | -31.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 2 | vs MSU | W 58-56 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | @ OSU | W 72-69 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @IU | W 83-77 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsORE | W 90-55 | -10.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | @ NU | W 77-58 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 21 | vsWASH | W 76-66 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 24 | @MINN | W 76-57 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 27 | @ MICH | L 72-75 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 1 | vsILL | L 69-78 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @RUTG | W 80-68 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
+8.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+8.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−16.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+4.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+3.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
−0.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−7.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−16.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
+15.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
+28.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+12.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−6.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−0.5
2
vsMSU
MSUW 58-56
−0.5
5
@OSU
OSUW 72-69
+5.5
10
@IU
IUW 83-77
+10.5
13
vsORE
OREW 90-55
+24.5
17
@NU
NUW 77-58
+14.5
21
vsWASH
WASHW 76-66
−0.5
24
@MINN
MINNW 76-57
+14.5
27
@MICH
MICHL 72-75
+8.5
1
vsILL
ILLL 69-78
−10.5
7
@RUTG
RUTGW 80-68
−0.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
−14.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+5.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−27.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+40.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+4.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
+2.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−13.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−22.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
−34.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
−8.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+6.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−18.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−5.5
2
vsMSU
MSUW 58-56
−32.5
5
@OSU
OSUW 72-69
−14.5
10
@IU
IUW 83-77
+9.5
13
vsORE
OREW 90-55
−1.5
17
@NU
NUW 77-58
−14.5
21
vsWASH
WASHW 76-66
−10.5
24
@MINN
MINNW 76-57
−7.5
27
@MICH
MICHL 72-75
−10.5
1
vsILL
ILLL 69-78
−7.5
7
@RUTG
RUTGW 80-68
+2.5
over 7under 16avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Purdue
19-4 overall · 9-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oregon68–64
- W@ Maryland93–63
- L@ Indiana67–72
- Lvs Illinois82–88
- L@ UCLA67–69
3 days since their last game.
Nebraska
21-2 overall · 10-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Rutgers80–68
- Lvs Illinois69–78
- L@ Michigan72–75
- W@ Minnesota76–57
- Wvs Washington76–66
3 days since their last game.