Petersen Events Center · at Pitt · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -17.5✓ PITT covered by 1.5
DUKE -17.5✓ PITT covered by 1.5Closing total136.5Under by 12.5
| DUKE | This season | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| 21-2 | Record | 9-15 |
| 13-10 | ATS | 9-15 |
| 7-16 | O/U | 14-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DUKE 78–62 PITT · ✓ DUKE (93%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 35 | 35 | 70 |
| PITT | 29 | 25 | 54 |
1st half: DUKE 35, PITT 29 (DUKE by 6). The model had DUKE by 10.0 and a total of 65.4 (actual 64).
Team stats
| DUKE | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-51 55% | Field goals | 21-54 39% |
| 9-23 39% | 3-pointers | 9-33 27% |
| 5-8 63% | Free throws | 3-8 38% |
| 37 8 off | Rebounds | 23 7 off |
| 16 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 11 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 38 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 6-9 | 1-2 |
| Caleb Foster G | 35 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 6-11 | 1-3 |
| Dame Sarr F | 28 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-6 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 25 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 8-10 | 5-6 |
| Maliq Brown F | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cayden Boozer G | 23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Darren Harris G | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Sebastian Wilkins, Cameron Sheffield, Jack Scott, Patrick Ngongba II
| PITT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Siulepa F | 39 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 6-15 | 4-11 |
| Damarco Minor G | 39 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Barry Dunning Jr. G | 35 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 7-14 | 3-8 |
| Cameron Corhen F | 35 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Omari Witherspoon G | 31 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nojus Indrusaitis G | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
Did not play: Kieran Mullen, Henry Lau, Amdy Ndiaye, Macari Moore, Jajuan Nelson, Benjamin Mayhew, Papa Amadou Kante, Brandin Cummings, Dishon Jackson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDUKE -17.5
ModelDUKE -16.5
Model edgePITT +1.0
W PITT covered
Total
Market136.5
Model139.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
L Under
Projected score
DUKE 78.1 · PITT 61.6
DUKE 70 · PITT 54
Win probability
DUKE 93%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -10.0
DUKE -6.0
Total
65.4
64 points
Projected score
DUKE 37.7 · PITT 27.7
DUKE 35 · PITT 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -15.5
2 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -17.5
2 pts toward DUKE
Total
Open137.5
▼ 1
Close136.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
DUKE -2800 · PITT +1300
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -15.5 · closed DUKE -17.5 · moved 2 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -16.5
model DUKE -16.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 1 downmodel 139.5
model 139.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| PITT | 2-8 20% | 2-8 20% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
DUKE 5–1 PITTDUKE leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · DUKE 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024-25 | PITT 47 @ DUKE 76 | DUKE -13.5 | DUKE W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | PITT 80 @ DUKE 76 | DUKE -12.5 | PITT W |
| Jan 9, 2023-24 | DUKE 75 @ PITT 53 | PITT +4.5 | DUKE W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | PITT 69 vs DUKE 96 | DUKE -5.5 | DUKE W |
| Jan 11, 2022-23 | PITT 69 @ DUKE 77 | DUKE -8.5 | PITT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Duke
23 games played
Straight up
21-2
91% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-16
30% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs WAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @ UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
over 7under 16avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pitt
24 games played
Straight up
9-15
38% wins
Against the spread
9-15
38% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-10
58% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs YSU | W 74-59 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs LONG | W 78-60 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 10 | vs EMU | W 78-66 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 13 | @ WVU | L 49-71 | +5.5 | L −16.5 | 134.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 17 | vs BUCK | W 84-50 | -16.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 20 | vs UCF | L 67-77 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 23 | vs QUIN | L 75-83 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 140.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 28 | vs OSU | W 67-66 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 2 | vs TA&M | L 73-81 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 7 | vs HOF | L 73-80 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 134.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 13 | @ VILL | L 61-79 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 17 | vs BING | W 103-63 | -24.5 | W +15.5 | 134.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vs PSU | W 80-46 | +1.5 | W +35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ MIA | L 69-76 | +9.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs CLEM | L 68-73 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs SYR | L 72-83 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 14 | @GT | W 89-66 | -1.5 | W +21.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 17 | vsLOU | L 59-100 | +7.5 | L −33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 21 | @BC | L 62-65 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 24 | vs NCSU | L 72-81 | +6.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vsWAKE | W 80-76 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @CLEM | L 52-63 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 3 | @ UVA | L 47-67 | +12.5 | L −7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
| Feb 7 | vsSMU | L 67-86 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
+0.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
+3.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
−3.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−16.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
+17.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−11.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
−20.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
+6.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
−4.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
−15.5
13
@VILL
VILLL 61-79
−7.5
17
vsBING
BINGW 103-63
+15.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 80-46
+35.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 69-76
+2.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEML 68-73
−1.5
10
vsSYR
SYRL 72-83
−12.5
14
@GT
GTW 89-66
+21.5
17
vsLOU
LOUL 59-100
−33.5
21
@BC
BCL 62-65
−5.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUL 72-81
−2.5
27
vsWAKE
WAKEW 80-76
+2.5
31
@CLEM
CLEML 52-63
−0.5
3
@UVA
UVAL 47-67
−7.5
7
vsSMU
SMUL 67-86
−14.5
covered 9didn’t cover 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
−12.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
−7.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
+2.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−14.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
−7.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−5.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
+17.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
−15.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
+1.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
+18.5
13
@VILL
VILLL 61-79
+1.5
17
vsBING
BINGW 103-63
+31.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 80-46
−20.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 69-76
+0.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEML 68-73
+5.5
10
vsSYR
SYRL 72-83
+12.5
14
@GT
GTW 89-66
+9.5
17
vsLOU
LOUL 59-100
+6.5
21
@BC
BCL 62-65
−10.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUL 72-81
+8.5
27
vsWAKE
WAKEW 80-76
+5.5
31
@CLEM
CLEML 52-63
−20.5
3
@UVA
UVAL 47-67
−28.5
7
vsSMU
SMUL 67-86
+5.5
over 14under 10avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Duke
21-2 overall · 10-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ North Carolina68–71
- Wvs Boston College67–49
- W@ Virginia Tech72–58
- Wvs Louisville83–52
- Wvs Wake Forest90–69
3 days since their last game.
Pitt
9-15 overall · 2-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs SMU67–86
- L@ Virginia47–67
- L@ Clemson52–63
- Wvs Wake Forest80–76
- Lvs NC State72–81
3 days since their last game.