When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
284 games · 2024 · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 154 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
Went over in Q4: 114 games
2024 · newest first · showing 50
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
KC -1.5 | 48.5 | 7244062 | Q4 | PHI Q1 Late over |
22–40 |
2024 · Postseason |
KC -2.5 | 49.5 | 10374361 | Q4 | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
29–32 |
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 14314052 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -7.5 | 43.5 | 20233150 | Q4 | LAR Q1 Late over |
22–28 |
2024 · Postseason |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 6162644 | Q4 | HOU Q2 Late over |
12–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
LAC -6.5 | 41.5 | 6273354 | Q4 | LAC Q2 Late over |
34–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
NYJ -2.5 | 39.5 | 6212452 | Q4 | NYJ Q2 | 20–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
GB -10.5 | 41.5 | 10272746 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
24–22 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 7192237 | Q4 | HOU Q1 Late over |
23–14 |
2024 · Week 18 |
IND -3.5 | 45.5 | 1433334649 | Q4 | JAX Q4 Late over |
23–26 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BUF -3.5 | 36.5 | 7243339 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
16–23 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TB -14.5 | 44.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BAL -20.5 | 41.5 | 7172445 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
10–35 |
2024 · Week 17 |
WSH -3.5 | 46.5 | 1424314854 | Q4 | WSH OT Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 17 |
GB -0.5 | 48.5 | 3163752 | Q4 | MIN Q2 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BUF -10.5 | 44.5 | 7123354 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 14–40 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAC -5.5 | 41.5 | 7273747 | Q4 | LAC Q1 | 40–7 |
2024 · Week 16 |
TB -4.5 | 47.5 | 10374350 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 16 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 3232946 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
17–29 |
2024 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 43.5 | 7313751 | Q4 | MIN Q1 Late over |
27–24 |
2024 · Week 16 |
PHI -4.5 | 47.5 | 28354169 | Q4 | WSH Q4 | 33–36 |
2024 · Week 16 |
ARI -5.5 | 47.5 | 737436066 | Q4 | CAR Q1 | 30–36 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BAL -7.5 | 45.5 | 7274151 | Q4 | BAL Q4 | 17–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
KC -3.5 | 42.5 | 10274046 | Q4 | KC Q1 | 19–27 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DEN -3.5 | 43.5 | 7202344 | Q4 | DEN Q4 | 13–31 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ARI -5.5 | 46.5 | 10161947 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over |
17–30 |
2024 · Week 15 |
CIN -6.5 | 46.5 | 21384564 | Q4 | CIN Q2 | 37–27 |
2024 · Week 15 |
BAL -16.5 | 43.5 | 7283549 | Q4 | BAL Q3 | 35–14 |
2024 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 0173144 | Q4 | DAL Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 15 |
NYJ -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203357 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
32–25 |
2024 · Week 14 |
SF -3.5 | 43.5 | 14243051 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 13–38 |
2024 · Week 14 |
ARI -3.5 | 45.5 | 24344548 | Q4 | SEA Q1 Late over |
30–18 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIA -6.5 | 45.5 | 928385258 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 | 26–32 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 14244263 | Q4 | MIN Q4 | 21–42 |
2024 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 53.5 | 7244565 | Q4 | GB Q3 | 31–34 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243845 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 13 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 13303349 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2024 · Week 13 |
NYJ -1.5 | 41.5 | 14373747 | Q4 | SEA Q4 | 26–21 |
2024 · Week 13 |
WSH -5.5 | 45.5 | 21354161 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 19–42 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DAL -4.5 | 39.5 | 10233747 | Q4 | DAL Q3 | 20–27 |
2024 · Week 12 |
BAL -2.5 | 50.5 | 7273353 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late over |
30–23 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PHI -2.5 | 47.5 | 10204157 | Q4 | PHI Q2 Late over |
37–20 |
2024 · Week 12 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243448 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
10–38 |
2024 · Week 12 |
DEN -5.5 | 41.5 | 3222948 | Q4 | DEN Q4 | 29–19 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIN -2.5 | 39.5 | 724345457 | Q4 | MIN OT | 30–27 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIA -7.5 | 45.5 | 0243149 | Q4 | MIA Q2 | 15–34 |
2024 · Week 12 |
WSH -10.5 | 44.5 | 361960 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
34–26 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 0131643 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Lead lost |
19–24 |
2024 · Week 11 |
HOU -7.5 | 41.5 | 14273044 | Q4 | HOU Q3 Late over |
34–10 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAC -0.5 | 48.5 | 10304761 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late cover flip |
27–34 |
KC
PHI
BUF
BAL
LAR
LAC
HOU
LV
MIA
NYJ
CHI
GB
TEN
JAX
IND
NE
NO
TB
CLE
ATL
WSH
MIN
DAL
SF
SEA
ARI
CAR
PIT
DEN
CIN
NYG
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 141
Q2 17% 49
Q3 11% 30
Q4 20% 57
OT 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 274 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 77% of 273 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 38 | 100% 38 |
| 1–3 | 12 | 92% 11 |
| 4–7 | 32 | 94% 30 |
| 8–10 | 34 | 62% 21 |
| 11–14 | 47 | 57% 27 |
| 15–17 | 39 | 38% 15 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 27% 9 |
| 22+ | 49 | 6% 3 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.