1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 38–46 ✕

When did they go over?

489 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 38–46 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games489100%By halftime92%In Q38117%In Q416133%In OT82%Stayed under23047%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands5211%Over cashed6112%Leader lost the game408%
53% went over. Of the 259 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

All 489 games

2023–2026 · Totals 38–46 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 7
 UCLA -1.5 42.5 3101724 U UCLA Q1 7–17
2026 · Week 7
 OU -7 44.5 10172034 U UK Q1 21–13
2026 · Week 7
 NDSU -14.5 42.5 0304148 Q4 NEV Q1 17–31
2026 · Week 7
 MICH -6 43.5 331739 U PSU Q4 18–21
2026 · Week 7
 WYO -7 42.5 10264464 Q3 WYO Q1 23–41
2026 · Week 7
 WMU -7.5 42.5 7142135 U CMU Q4
Late cover flip
 21–14
2026 · Week 7
 BUFF -6.5 43.5 1023303643 U BUFF OT
Late cover flip
 18–25
2026 · Week 7
 PITT -6.5 42.5 19263948 Q4 BC Q1 21–27
2026 · Week 7
 GASO -3 44.5 14233038 U GASO Q2 23–15
2026 · Week 7
 JXST -3 44.5 21344851 Q3 Push
Late cover flip
 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 TEX -7.5 40.5 7242751 Q4 OU Q3 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 DUKE -4.5 45.5 7243953 Q4 GT Q1
Late over
 25–28
2026 · Week 6
 OHIO -2.5 45.5 14313845 U OHIO Q1 14–31
2026 · Week 6
 WMU -13.5 43.5 7283145 Q4 WMU Q2
Late over
 7–38
2026 · Week 6
 M-OH -6 44.5 21242739 U MASS Q4
Late cover flip
 20–19
2026 · Week 6
 APP -8.5 45.5 00513 U ODU Q1 10–3
2026 · Week 6
 BGSU -9.5 43.5 3202748 Q4 BGSU Q2 10–38
2026 · Week 6
 WASH -3 41.5 13305265 Q3 IOWA Q1 41–24
2026 · Week 6
 USU -4 44.5 6192633 U WSU Q1 16–17
2026 · Week 6
 SJSU -4.5 42.5 313192629 U WYO Q4 16–13
2026 · Week 5
 WSU -2.5 44.5 3121932 U FRES Q1 26–6
2026 · Week 5
 NDSU -17.5 44.5 7172028 U NDSU Q3 0–28
2026 · Week 5
 M-OH -10.5 41.5 0161944 Q4 BGSU Q1
Late over
 24–20
2026 · Week 5
 WIS -8.5 43.5 14202734 U WIS Q1 3–31
2026 · Week 5
 MICH -6.5 41.5 7212434 U MINN Q3 14–20
2026 · Week 5
 AFA -2.5 45.5 0172323 U AFA Q2 9–14
2026 · Week 4
 WASH -12.5 44.5 14313451 Q4 MINN Q1
Late over
 27–24
2026 · Week 4
 FRES -12.5 43.5 7314162 Q4 FRES Q4 24–38
2026 · Week 4
 JMU -7 44.5 24475366 Q2 JMU Q1 46–20
2026 · Week 4
 PSU -9.5 43.5 3243044 Q4 WIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 24–20
2026 · Week 4
 UGA -11.5 43.5 7283754 Q4 UGA Q2 13–41
2026 · Week 4
 MICH -4.5 39.5 14172039 U IOWA Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 20–19
2026 · Week 4
 HAW -2.5 44.5 6161637 U WYO Q1 10–27
2026 · Week 4
 VT -14.5 45.5 031335 U BC Q1 21–14
2026 · Week 3
 OU -21.5 45.5 0132020 U UNM Q1 6–14
2026 · Week 3
 WMU -8.5 43.5 7212849 Q4 RICE Q1
Late over
 28–21
2026 · Week 3
 WYO -1.5 39.5 3172734 U CMU Q1 10–24
2026 · Week 3
 WIS -23.5 43.5 10384864 Q3 WIS Q2 10–54
2026 · Week 3
 ISU -22.5 43.5 28425262 Q3 ISU Q2 7–55
2026 · Week 3
 CLEM -3 44.5 17233248 Q4 CLEM Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 20–28
2026 · Week 2
 FRES -17.5 43.5 0324952 Q3 FRES Q2 3–49
2026 · Week 2
 IOWA -14 42.5 0202329 U ISU Q1 13–16
UNCO @ WYO
2026 · Week 2
 WYO -23.5 44.5 0172034 U UNCO Q1
Lead lost
 13–21
RMU @ AKR
2026 · Week 2
 AKR -26.5 45.5 7314155 Q4 AKR Q4 10–45
2026 · Week 2
 OU -5.5 43.5 7101727 U MICH Q1 10–17
2026 · Week 2
 ARMY -3 45.5 7212852 Q4 USF Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 28–24
WOF @ KENT
2026 · Week 2
 KENT -10 45.5 10292951 Q4 KENT Q4
Late over
 15–36
2026 · Week 1
 ND -21 45.5 13234054 Q4 ND Q4
Late cover flip
 13–41
2026 · Week 1
 CSU -2.5 45.5 10203448 Q4 CSU Q1
Late over
 13–35
2026 · Week 1
 IOWA -31.5 44.5 20334040 U IOWA Q2 0–40
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 489

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 48% 236
Q2 17% 82
Q3 15% 72
Q4 18% 87
OT 1% 6
Push 1% 6
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 73% of 450 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 77% of 456 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over90100% 90
1–33097% 29
4–75688% 49
8–104149% 20
11–145859% 34
15–175336% 19
18–216215% 9
22+999% 9
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.