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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

59 games · 2023 · Week 5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games59100%By halftime35%In Q31017%In Q42542%In OT00%Stayed under2136%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands915%Over cashed1119%Leader lost the game58%
66% went over. Of the 38 overs, 8% had cashed by halftime and 34% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 16% of games.

All 59 games

2023 · Week 5 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 5
 FRES -25.5 50.5 7142036 U NEV Q1 9–27
2023 · Week 5
 WASH -19.5 66 14314555 U ARIZ Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 5
 ALA -16.5 45 14415157 Q3 ALA Q2 40–17
2023 · Week 5
 PITT -3 40 14285659 Q3 VT Q1 21–38
2023 · Week 5
 TCU -14 52 14354245 U WVU Q1 24–21
2023 · Week 5
 APP -13.5 50.5 28567581 Q2 ULM Q1
Lead lost
 41–40
2023 · Week 5
 AFA -10.5 43.5 0315259 Q3 AFA Q2 10–49
2023 · Week 5
 ND -5.5 52.5 7102035 U ND Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 21–14
2023 · Week 5
 TENN -12 59 24344861 Q4 TENN Q2
Late over
 20–41
2023 · Week 5
 IOWA -10 36.5 6192942 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over
 16–26
2023 · Week 5
 SMU -22.5 53 14203650 U CLT Q1 16–34
2023 · Week 5
 OU -19.5 48.5 31606770 Q2 OU Q2 20–50
2023 · Week 5
 RICE -3.5 46 6192641 U RICE Q3 17–24
ACU @ UNT
2023 · Week 5
 UNT -15.5 70.5 31486976 Q4 ACU Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 31–45
2023 · Week 5
 GASO -6 67.5 7355966 U GASO Q2 28–38
2023 · Week 5
 GAST -1 50.5 3132835 U TROY Q3 28–7
2023 · Week 5
 TXST -6.5 60 31525886 Q4 TXST Q1
Late cover flip
 50–36
UTU @ CSU
2023 · Week 5
 CSU -31.5 65.5 17384761 U UTU Q1 20–41
2023 · Week 5
 ORE -27 59.5 3204148 U ORE Q3 42–6
2023 · Week 5
 LSU -3 67 285976104 Q3 MISS Q4
Lead lost
 49–55
2023 · Week 5
 MIZ -14 53.5 10243159 Q4 MIZ Q3
Late cover flip Late over
 38–21
2023 · Week 5
 MEM -3 58 3313867 Q4 Push
Late over
 32–35
2023 · Week 5
 UNLV -10.5 58 7234064 Q4 UNLV Q2 20–44
2023 · Week 5
 WYO -14.5 40.5 15214161 Q3 UNM Q4 26–35
2023 · Week 5
 UGA -14 44.5 10203447 Q4 AUB Q1
Late over
 27–20
2023 · Week 5
 MICH -17.5 40 14283552 Q4 MICH Q2
Late over
 45–7
2023 · Week 5
 TEX -15.5 61.5 10204054 U TEX Q4 14–40
2023 · Week 5
 MD -14.5 50 24304061 Q4 MD Q1 17–44
2023 · Week 5
 ILL PK 53.5 9295063 Q4 PUR Q1 19–44
WAG @ RUTG
2023 · Week 5
 RUTG -46 52.5 10274155 Q4 RUTG Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 3–52
2023 · Week 5
 GT -21 49 21315865 Q3 BGSU Q1 38–27
2023 · Week 5
 TTU -9 52 28637077 Q2 TTU Q3 28–49
2023 · Week 5
 UCF -8 56 28354571 Q4 BAY Q4
Lead lost
 36–35
2023 · Week 5
 MASS -2.5 55.5 17416580 Q3 ARST Q1 52–28
2023 · Week 5
 NAVY -3.5 54 21435374 Q4 USF Q2 44–30
2023 · Week 5
 MRSH -14.5 47 10386676 Q3 ODU Q1 35–41
2023 · Week 5
 WMU -1.5 50 10385266 Q3 WMU Q1 24–42
2023 · Week 5
 TOL -13.5 48 14214568 Q4 NIU Q1 33–35
2023 · Week 5
 CAL -13 47.5 14173045 U ASU Q1 21–24
2023 · Week 5
 M-OH -14 50 13162626 U M-OH Q3 23–3
2023 · Week 5
 BC -5 51 7284551 P UVA Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 5
 CMU -10 44.5 14244249 Q4 EMU Q1 23–26
2023 · Week 5
 PSU -27 48 6203754 Q4 PSU Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 41–13
2023 · Week 5
 USC -22.5 74 14487589 Q3 COLO Q1 48–41
2023 · Week 5
 UK -1 44 16304447 Q4 UK Q1 14–33
2023 · Week 5
 TA&M -6.5 53.5 10234356 Q4 TA&M Q2
Late over
 34–22
2023 · Week 5
 MINN -9.5 49 14313859 Q4 MINN Q4 24–35
2023 · Week 5
 USU -4 50.5 7244167 Q4 CONN Q4
Late cover flip
 34–33
2023 · Week 5
 CLEM -7 52 21283145 U CLEM Q2 31–14
2023 · Week 5
 TULN -22.5 59.5 10344858 U UAB Q1 23–35
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 59

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 51% 30
Q2 17% 10
Q3 12% 7
Q4 15% 9
OT 0% 0
Push 5% 3
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 68% of 56 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 67% of 55 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over13100% 13
1–37100% 7
4–7475% 3
8–10475% 3
11–141080% 8
15–171100% 1
18–21729% 2
22+138% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.