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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

66 games · 2023 · Week 4 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games66100%By halftime46%In Q3914%In Q41827%In OT12%Stayed under3452%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands914%Over cashed58%Leader lost the game35%
49% went over. Of the 32 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 41% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

All 66 games

2023 · Week 4 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 4
 HAW -3.5 55 7202737 U NMSU Q1 17–20
2023 · Week 4
 USC -34.5 62.5 21344870 Q4 ASU Q1 42–28
2023 · Week 4
 WASH -20.5 55.5 30577191 Q2 WASH Q2 32–59
2023 · Week 4
 FRES -27 47.5 29466063 Q3 FRES Q3 10–53
2023 · Week 4
 UTEP -1 49.5 21424973 Q4 UNLV Q1 45–28
2023 · Week 4
 UNC -7 49.5 14456565 Q3 UNC Q2 41–24
2023 · Week 4
 KSU -6 53.5 17385575 Q3 KSU Q3 31–44
2023 · Week 4
 JMU -5.5 53.5 17556983 Q2 JMU Q1 45–38
2023 · Week 4
 UGA -40 56 7425670 Q4 UAB Q1 21–49
2023 · Week 4
 TEX -17.5 49.5 10344444 U TEX Q2 38–6
2023 · Week 4
 OSU -3 55.5 031731 U Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–14
2023 · Week 4
 PSU -14 38.5 3102431 U PSU Q3 0–31
2023 · Week 4
 IU -16.5 45.5 010243456 OT AKR Q1
Late over
 27–29
2023 · Week 4
 MIZ -6.5 52 17274161 Q4 MIZ Q2
Late over
 27–34
2023 · Week 4
 MINN -12 39.5 731416271 Q3 NU Q4
Lead lost
 34–37
2023 · Week 4
 SC -6 47 7375467 Q3 SC Q4 30–37
2023 · Week 4
 UL -10.5 57.5 7105283 Q4 BUFF Q1
Late cover flip
 38–45
2023 · Week 4
 LSU -17.5 55 3234065 Q4 ARK Q1 31–34
2023 · Week 4
 ORST -3 57.5 21424973 Q4 WSU Q1 35–38
2023 · Week 4
 FLA -28 48.5 10232629 U CLT Q1 7–22
2023 · Week 4
 HOU -11.5 37 17313845 Q3 HOU Q2 7–38
2023 · Week 4
 MTSU -3.5 50 20273454 Q4 CSU Q3 31–23
2023 · Week 4
 ARIZ -13 60 3173141 U STAN Q1 21–20
NICH @ TULN
2023 · Week 4
 TULN -38 55.5 17344043 U NICH Q1 7–36
2023 · Week 4
 WYO -3 45 6191941 U Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 19–22
2023 · Week 4
 USM -7 46.5 21376181 Q3 ARST Q1 37–44
2023 · Week 4
 TXST -17 60 10173859 U NEV Q1 24–35
2023 · Week 4
 LIB -10 54.5 20304444 U LIB Q2 38–6
2023 · Week 4
 WAKE -3.5 58.5 10232946 U GT Q1 30–16
GWEB @ ECU
2023 · Week 4
 ECU -12.5 51.5 13233044 U ECU Q1 0–44
2023 · Week 4
 JXST -6.5 51 7142121 U JXST Q1 0–21
2023 · Week 4
 USA -16.5 46.5 14273764 Q4 CMU Q1 34–30
2023 · Week 4
 TENN -20.5 59 14314559 P TENN Q4 14–45
2023 · Week 4
 ISU -3.5 36 14374761 Q2 ISU Q3 27–34
2023 · Week 4
 RICE -2.5 57 10274871 Q4 USF Q2 29–42
2023 · Week 4
 ORE -21.5 70.5 13354248 U ORE Q2 6–42
2023 · Week 4
 UTAH -3.5 50.5 7141421 U UTAH Q1 7–14
2023 · Week 4
 ALA -7 56 10132734 U ALA Q4 10–24
2023 · Week 4
 DUKE -22 46 7274148 Q4 DUKE Q2
Late over
 41–7
2023 · Week 4
 MIA -23 46.5 7314548 Q4 MIA Q3 41–7
2023 · Week 4
 ILL -16 45.5 10243340 U FAU Q1 17–23
2023 · Week 4
 MD -7 51.5 7243040 U MD Q2 31–9
2023 · Week 4
 NEB -20.5 44.5 0142142 U LT Q1 14–28
2023 · Week 4
 LOU -14 53.5 14567784 Q2 LOU Q2 28–56
2023 · Week 4
 KU -9.5 55.5 21314865 Q4 KU Q4
Late cover flip
 27–38
2023 · Week 4
 TTU -6 53 10161633 U WVU Q1 13–20
2023 · Week 4
 MASS -3 49 1442455665 Q4 UNM Q1
Late over
 34–31
2023 · Week 4
 OHIO -13 45.5 21313845 U OHIO Q1 38–7
DSU @ M-OH
2023 · Week 4
 M-OH -40.5 49.5 24477582 Q3 M-OH Q4
Late cover flip
 20–62
2023 · Week 4
 GASO -5.5 60 14233343 U GASO Q1 40–3
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 66

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 31
Q2 18% 12
Q3 12% 8
Q4 15% 10
OT 2% 1
Push 6% 4
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 67% of 64 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 68% of 63 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over13100% 13
1–34100% 4
4–7683% 5
8–10863% 5
11–14520% 1
15–17650% 3
22+244% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.