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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

68 games · 2023 · Week 12 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games68100%By halftime00%In Q31116%In Q41826%In OT23%Stayed under3754%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands1015%Over cashed812%Leader lost the game34%
46% went over. Of the 31 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.

All 68 games

2023 · Week 12 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 12
 FRES -22 58 10263242 U UNM Q1 25–17
2023 · Week 12
 SJSU -16 48 7202737 U SDSU Q1 13–24
2023 · Week 12
 TEX -7 44.5 392442 U TEX Q4 26–16
2023 · Week 12
 LSU -32.5 74 21495670 U LSU Q4 14–56
2023 · Week 12
 GT -6 51.5 10204053 Q4 GT Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 22–31
2023 · Week 12
 ORST -1 63 16323942 U WASH Q1 22–20
2023 · Week 12
 MIZ -12.5 56.5 10204464 Q4 FLA Q1 31–33
2023 · Week 12
 ARK -26.5 50 20445864 Q3 FIU Q1 20–44
2023 · Week 12
 SC -2 52 10172431 U SC Q4 14–17
2023 · Week 12
 WIS -7 36.5 1424313441 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over
 17–24
2023 · Week 12
 KSU -7 60.5 14365158 U KU Q1 31–27
2023 · Week 12
 BOIS -4 64 7414855 U BOIS Q2 45–10
UNA @ FSU
2023 · Week 12
 FSU -47.5 62 13375171 Q4 UNA Q1
Late over
 13–58
2023 · Week 12
 CAL -6.5 53 10203642 U CAL Q4 27–15
2023 · Week 12
 GASO -5.5 62.5 0172737 U ODU Q1 20–17
2023 · Week 12
 TTU -2 58.5 14283547 U UCF Q4 23–24
2023 · Week 12
 USA -10 45.5 14212128 U USA Q1 0–28
2023 · Week 12
 OSU -27.5 51.5 7133040 U OSU Q3 3–37
2023 · Week 12
 ORE -24.5 54.5 21424562 Q4 ORE Q2 49–13
2023 · Week 12
 OKST -6.5 57.5 17425673 Q4 OKST Q3
Late cover flip
 43–30
2023 · Week 12
 AUB -25 47.5 7172441 U NMSU Q1 31–10
2023 · Week 12
 UGA -9 59 17344848 U UGA Q2 38–10
2023 · Week 12
 IOWA -3 33.5 5191928 U ILL Q1
Lead lost
 13–15
2023 · Week 12
 ND -24 47.5 7243852 Q4 ND Q4
Late over
 7–45
2023 · Week 12
 CLEM -7.5 59.5 7214251 U CLEM Q3 20–31
2023 · Week 12
 WKU -10 53 7374451 U SHSU Q1 23–28
2023 · Week 12
 USC -5 63 14244458 U UCLA Q1 38–20
2023 · Week 12
 VT -2.5 41 0284963 Q3 NCSU Q1 35–28
2023 · Week 12
 TCU -13 61 7244559 U TCU Q4 17–42
2023 · Week 12
 TROY -16 47.5 7273455 Q4 UL Q1 24–31
2023 · Week 12
 AFA -3 47 14415558 Q3 UNLV Q3 31–27
2023 · Week 12
 DUKE -3 46 7203757 Q4 UVA Q1 27–30
2023 · Week 12
 UNT -2 69 14425663 U UNT Q3 35–28
2023 · Week 12
 UAB -7.5 61.5 7243458 U UAB Q4
Late cover flip
 24–34
2023 · Week 12
 TXST -3 60 245287108 Q3 ARST Q1 31–77
2023 · Week 12
 CSU -12 45 17334350 Q4 NEV Q1 20–30
2023 · Week 12
 ARIZ -2.5 47.5 21353860 Q4 ARIZ Q1
Late over
 18–42
2023 · Week 12
 WVU -5 52.5 7354963 Q4 WVU Q1 21–42
2023 · Week 12
 JXST -10 55 28527373 Q3 JXST Q1 17–56
2023 · Week 12
 MTSU -8.5 48 21455564 Q3 UTEP Q1 30–34
2023 · Week 12
 RICE PK 46.5 10132135 U RICE Q1 28–7
2023 · Week 12
 JMU -10 56.5 315154049 U APP Q1 26–23
2023 · Week 12
 BALL -10.5 43.5 3163037 U BALL Q3 3–34
2023 · Week 12
 WYO -13.5 45 14354451 Q4 WYO Q1
Late over
 9–42
2023 · Week 12
 LIB -26.5 63.5 21455274 Q4 MASS Q4
Late cover flip
 25–49
2023 · Week 12
 MICH -18 51 19335355 Q3 MD Q1 31–24
UTC @ ALA
2023 · Week 12
 ALA -44.5 54.5 21456276 Q3 ALA Q4 10–66
2023 · Week 12
 LOU PK 46 28415169 Q3 LOU Q4
Late cover flip
 38–31
2023 · Week 12
 PSU -19.5 40 3161933 U PSU Q4
Late cover flip
 6–27
2023 · Week 12
 MISS -36.5 61.5 7103138 U ULM Q1 3–35
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 68

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 37
Q2 9% 6
Q3 12% 8
Q4 22% 15
OT 0% 0
Push 3% 2
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 71% of 62 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 76% of 63 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over11100% 11
1–33100% 3
4–75100% 5
8–10667% 4
11–141060% 6
15–17714% 1
18–21714% 1
22+190% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.