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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

3,141 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games3,141100%By halftime512%In Q346515%In Q41,05434%In OT361%Stayed under1,53549%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands33611%Over cashed44714%Leader lost the game2468%
51% went over. Of the 1,606 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Stayed under: 1,535 games

2023–2026 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 8
 LIB -8.5 50.5 14172740 U LIB Q1 34–6
2026 · Week 8
 USA -1.5 66.5 3121933 U MRSH Q2 13–20
2026 · Week 7
 ORE -6.5 50.5 072031 U NEB Q1
Lead lost
 14–17
2026 · Week 7
 WAKE -10 54.5 14344148 U WAKE Q1 41–7
2026 · Week 7
 UNM -14.5 46.5 3101731 U HAW Q1 21–10
2026 · Week 7
 SJSU -6.5 46.5 772435 U SJSU Q1 24–11
2026 · Week 7
 LT -13.5 55.5 001424 U LT Q3 24–0
2026 · Week 7
 UCLA -1.5 42.5 3101724 U UCLA Q1 7–17
2026 · Week 7
 OU -7 44.5 10172034 U UK Q1 21–13
ELON @ STAN
2026 · Week 7
 STAN -33.5 55.5 0142841 U ELON Q1 7–34
2026 · Week 7
 BAY -3.5 50.5 7132323 U TCU Q1 17–6
2026 · Week 7
 USF -20.5 46.5 2121931 U USF Q4 2–29
2026 · Week 7
 ARST -5.5 61.5 6232336 U ARST Q1 23–13
2026 · Week 7
 UL -3 49.5 7193239 U UL Q1 6–33
2026 · Week 7
 ALA -7.5 50.5 9222936 U TENN Q1 10–26
2026 · Week 7
 MISS -4 57.5 10242434 U MISS Q2 3–31
2026 · Week 7
 DUKE -3 46.5 10242744 U UNC Q1 24–20
2026 · Week 7
 MICH -6 43.5 331739 U PSU Q4 18–21
2026 · Week 7
 TOL -7.5 51.5 10384848 U TOL Q1 34–14
2026 · Week 7
 WMU -7.5 42.5 7142135 U CMU Q4
Late cover flip
 21–14
CIT @ TA&M
2026 · Week 7
 TA&M -46.5 56.5 7283441 U CIT Q1 0–41
2026 · Week 7
 BUFF -6.5 43.5 1023303643 U BUFF OT
Late cover flip
 18–25
2026 · Week 7
 OSU -3 49.5 3172034 U OSU Q3 19–15
2026 · Week 7
 TEX -13.5 51.5 10273451 U FLA Q1 27–24
2026 · Week 7
 LSU -17.5 56.5 14213131 U LSU Q2 0–31
2026 · Week 7
 SMU -10 51.5 3232936 U Push 13–23
2026 · Week 7
 NU -7.5 50.5 10242745 U MSU Q1 24–21
CHSO @ CLEM
2026 · Week 7
 CLEM -42.5 53.5 10343437 U CHSO Q1 0–37
2026 · Week 7
 MEM -6.5 55.5 3333348 U TULN Q1 17–31
2026 · Week 7
 ECU -5.5 49.5 717233447 U UAB Q3
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–30
2026 · Week 7
 GASO -3 44.5 14233038 U GASO Q2 23–15
2026 · Week 7
 WKU -1.5 53.5 7131619 U WKU Q1 16–3
2026 · Week 7
 KENN -2.5 52.5 0132845 U MOST Q1 21–24
2026 · Week 6
 ASU -20.5 51.5 10233042 U HAW Q1 12–30
2026 · Week 6
 JMU -7 51.5 10163051 U GASO Q4
Late cover flip
 27–24
2026 · Week 6
 ALA -2.5 51.5 3243437 U UGA Q3 20–17
2026 · Week 6
 USC -1.5 54.5 14344454 U USC Q3 31–23
2026 · Week 6
 AFA -7 48.5 7213535 U AFA Q3 28–7
2026 · Week 6
 MEM -15.5 55.5 14233751 U MEM Q4 13–38
2026 · Week 6
 NEV -10 48.5 7203043 U NEV Q3 30–13
2026 · Week 6
 NDSU -3 47.5 7141720 U UNLV Q1 7–13
2026 · Week 6
 MRSH -4.5 57.5 3133448 U CCU Q1 27–21
2026 · Week 6
 TENN -13.5 51.5 072441 U ARK Q1 24–17
2026 · Week 6
 TEM -3.5 55.5 28414454 U CONN Q1 34–20
2026 · Week 6
 ORE -10 57.5 9161632 U UCLA Q1 17–15
2026 · Week 6
 KSU -2.5 55.5 10244451 U HOU Q1 35–16
2026 · Week 6
 VT -11.5 51.5 0242745 U CAL Q1
Lead lost
 20–25
2026 · Week 6
 EMU -4.5 51.5 10273348 U AKR Q1
Lead lost
 25–23
2026 · Week 6
 TOL -18.5 54.5 6131631 U BUFF Q1 23–8
2026 · Week 6
 OHIO -2.5 45.5 14313845 U OHIO Q1 14–31
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 1,535

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 1,568
Q2 16% 494
Q3 15% 471
Q4 18% 556
OT 1% 18
Push 1% 34
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 69% of 2,929 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 72% of 2,988 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over516100% 516
1–319295% 182
4–729586% 255
8–1026170% 184
11–1434558% 200
15–1727041% 110
18–2133927% 92
22+9237% 67
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.