NFL Model Edge Explorer: Hit Rates by Season

Does the side the model likes on the total (Over or Under) cash?

NFL games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

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Model side cashed

43.8%

of the model’s total picks cashed

Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ

35%break-even 52.4%70%

39–50 record

89 games

34–54% 95% range

89 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)

By season

Is it the same every year?

Season	Games	Record	Hit rate
2023	21	6–15	28.6%
2024	31	14–17	45.2%
2025	31	16–15	51.6%
2026 so far	6	3–3	50.0%

By total edge size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up

Edge size	Games	Record	Hit rate	And up
0.5–1.5	37	18–19	48.6%	43.8% 89
2–3.5	35	14–21	40.0%	40.4% 52
4–5.5	11	5–6	45.5%	41.2% 17
6+	6	2–4	33.3%	33.3% 6

89 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.

Game	Closing	Total edge	Result	Final
HOU vs JAX 2026 · Week 6 JAX -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–31	JAX -2.5 · 42.5	Under 42.5 model 39.5 · edge 3	L O	34–31
IND @ PIT 2026 · Week 5 PIT -3 · 42.5 · final 22–34	PIT -3 · 42.5	Over 42.5 model 44.5 · edge 2	W O	22–34
NYG @ WSH 2026 · Week 5 WSH -3.5 · 41.5 · final 27–27	WSH -3.5 · 41.5	Over 41.5 model 43.5 · edge 2	W O	27–27
PIT @ CLE 2026 · Week 4 PIT -2.5 · 38.5 · final 24–27	PIT -2.5 · 38.5	Under 38.5 model 38 · edge 0.5	L O	24–27
TEN @ NYG 2026 · Week 3 NYG -2.5 · 37.5 · final 7–12	NYG -2.5 · 37.5	Over 37.5 model 41 · edge 3.5	L U	7–12
DEN @ KC 2026 · Week 1 KC -2.5 · 42.5 · final 10–31	KC -2.5 · 42.5	Under 42.5 model 41 · edge 1.5	W U	10–31
LAC @ NE 2025 · Postseason NE -3.5 · 45.5 · final 3–16	NE -3.5 · 45.5	Under 45.5 model 41.5 · edge 4	W U	3–16
SF @ PHI 2025 · Postseason PHI -5.5 · 44.5 · final 23–19	PHI -5.5 · 44.5	Under 44.5 model 40.5 · edge 4	W U	23–19
LAR @ CAR 2025 · Postseason LAR -10 · 44.5 · final 34–31	LAR -10 · 44.5	Under 44.5 model 42 · edge 2.5	L O	34–31
ARI @ CIN 2025 · Week 17 CIN -7 · 53.5 · final 14–37	CIN -7 · 53.5	Under 53.5 model 48.5 · edge 5	W U	14–37
PIT @ CLE 2025 · Week 17 PIT -3.5 · 34.5 · final 6–13	PIT -3.5 · 34.5	Over 34.5 model 36.5 · edge 2	L U	6–13
NO @ TEN 2025 · Week 17 NO -1.5 · 38.5 · final 34–26	NO -1.5 · 38.5	Under 38.5 model 35.5 · edge 3	L O	34–26
BUF @ CLE 2025 · Week 16 BUF -10.5 · 41.5 · final 23–20	BUF -10.5 · 41.5	Under 41.5 model 40.5 · edge 1	L O	23–20
MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 MIN -2.5 · 41.5 · final 16–13	MIN -2.5 · 41.5	Over 41.5 model 43 · edge 1.5	L U	16–13
GB @ CHI 2025 · Week 16 CHI -1.5 · 44.5 · final 16–22	CHI -1.5 · 44.5	Under 44.5 model 43 · edge 1.5	W U	16–22
LAR @ SEA 2025 · Week 16 SEA -1.5 · 42.5 · final 37–38	SEA -1.5 · 42.5	Under 42.5 model 40.5 · edge 2	L O	37–38
LV @ PHI 2025 · Week 15 PHI -12.5 · 36.5 · final 0–31	PHI -12.5 · 36.5	Under 36.5 model 34 · edge 2.5	W U	0–31
BUF @ PIT 2025 · Week 13 BUF -3 · 44.5 · final 26–7	BUF -3 · 44.5	Over 44.5 model 46.5 · edge 2	L U	26–7
SF @ CLE 2025 · Week 13 SF -5.5 · 35.5 · final 26–8	SF -5.5 · 35.5	Under 35.5 model 34 · edge 1.5	W U	26–8
CHI @ PHI 2025 · Week 13 PHI -7 · 43.5 · final 24–15	PHI -7 · 43.5	Under 43.5 model 41.5 · edge 2	W U	24–15
DET @ PHI 2025 · Week 11 PHI -2.5 · 45.5 · final 9–16	PHI -2.5 · 45.5	Under 45.5 model 45 · edge 0.5	W U	9–16
BAL @ CLE 2025 · Week 11 BAL -7.5 · 37.5 · final 23–16	BAL -7.5 · 37.5	Over 37.5 model 38 · edge 0.5	W O	23–16
TB @ BUF 2025 · Week 11 BUF -6.5 · 44.5 · final 32–44	BUF -6.5 · 44.5	Under 44.5 model 44 · edge 0.5	L O	32–44
GB @ NYG 2025 · Week 11 GB -7.5 · 42.5 · final 27–20	GB -7.5 · 42.5	Under 42.5 model 38 · edge 4.5	L O	27–20
CIN @ PIT 2025 · Week 11 PIT -5.5 · 47.5 · final 12–34	PIT -5.5 · 47.5	Under 47.5 model 47 · edge 0.5	W U	12–34
LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 LAC -2.5 · 42.5 · final 6–35	LAC -2.5 · 42.5	Over 42.5 model 43.5 · edge 1	L U	6–35
NO @ CAR 2025 · Week 10 CAR -5.5 · 38.5 · final 17–7	CAR -5.5 · 38.5	Over 38.5 model 40.5 · edge 2	L U	17–7
CAR @ GB 2025 · Week 9 GB -13.5 · 43.5 · final 16–13	GB -13.5 · 43.5	Under 43.5 model 42.5 · edge 1	W U	16–13
NO @ CHI 2025 · Week 7 CHI -3.5 · 43.5 · final 14–26	CHI -3.5 · 43.5	Under 43.5 model 42.5 · edge 1	W U	14–26
MIA @ CLE 2025 · Week 7 CLE -2.5 · 35.5 · final 6–31	CLE -2.5 · 35.5	Over 35.5 model 37 · edge 1.5	W O	6–31
NE @ TEN 2025 · Week 7 NE -6.5 · 41.5 · final 31–13	NE -6.5 · 41.5	Under 41.5 model 37.5 · edge 4	L O	31–13
CAR @ NYJ 2025 · Week 7 NYJ -1.5 · 39.5 · final 13–6	NYJ -1.5 · 39.5	Over 39.5 model 43 · edge 3.5	L U	13–6
CHI @ WSH 2025 · Week 6 WSH -5.5 · 48.5 · final 25–24	WSH -5.5 · 48.5	Under 48.5 model 45.5 · edge 3	L O	25–24
DAL @ CAR 2025 · Week 6 DAL -2.5 · 45.5 · final 27–30	DAL -2.5 · 45.5	Over 45.5 model 47 · edge 1.5	W O	27–30
LAR @ BAL 2025 · Week 6 LAR -6.5 · 44.5 · final 17–3	LAR -6.5 · 44.5	Over 44.5 model 46 · edge 1.5	L U	17–3
MIN vs CLE 2025 · Week 5 MIN -3.5 · 35.5 · final 21–17	MIN -3.5 · 35.5	Over 35.5 model 37.5 · edge 2	W O	21–17
PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 PHI -1.5 · 46.5 · final 20–17	PHI -1.5 · 46.5	Under 46.5 model 44 · edge 2.5	W U	20–17
MIA @ NYJ 2024 · Week 18 NYJ -2.5 · 39.5 · final 20–32	NYJ -2.5 · 39.5	Under 39.5 model 38.5 · edge 1	L O	20–32
BUF @ NE 2024 · Week 18 BUF -3.5 · 36.5 · final 16–23	BUF -3.5 · 36.5	Over 36.5 model 42.5 · edge 6	W O	16–23
NYG @ PHI 2024 · Week 18 PHI -2.5 · 35.5 · final 13–20	PHI -2.5 · 35.5	Over 35.5 model 40 · edge 4.5	L U	13–20
CLE @ BAL 2024 · Week 18 BAL -20.5 · 41.5 · final 10–35	BAL -20.5 · 41.5	Over 41.5 model 45.5 · edge 4	W O	10–35
ATL @ WSH 2024 · Week 17 WSH -3.5 · 46.5 · final 24–30	WSH -3.5 · 46.5	Over 46.5 model 47 · edge 0.5	W O	24–30
NYJ @ BUF 2024 · Week 17 BUF -10.5 · 44.5 · final 14–40	BUF -10.5 · 44.5	Under 44.5 model 41.5 · edge 3	L O	14–40
CAR @ TB 2024 · Week 17 TB -9.5 · 47.5 · final 14–48	TB -9.5 · 47.5	Under 47.5 model 47 · edge 0.5	L O	14–48
MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 MIN -2.5 · 43.5 · final 27–24	MIN -2.5 · 43.5	Under 43.5 model 43 · edge 0.5	L O	27–24
PIT @ BAL 2024 · Week 16 BAL -7.5 · 45.5 · final 17–34	BAL -7.5 · 45.5	Over 45.5 model 46.5 · edge 1	W O	17–34
KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 KC -3.5 · 41.5 · final 21–7	KC -3.5 · 41.5	Under 41.5 model 38.5 · edge 3	W U	21–7
CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 CIN -6.5 · 46.5 · final 37–27	CIN -6.5 · 46.5	Under 46.5 model 44.5 · edge 2	L O	37–27
NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 NO -5.5 · 41.5 · final 14–11	NO -5.5 · 41.5	Under 41.5 model 40.5 · edge 1	W U	14–11
CAR @ PHI 2024 · Week 14 PHI -13.5 · 44.5 · final 16–22	PHI -13.5 · 44.5	Under 44.5 model 42.5 · edge 2	W U	16–22

Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 89

Total edge is the model’s projected total minus the closing total, in points; the side is Over when the model projects more points than the market, Under when fewer. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.

NFL edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Does the side the model likes on the total (Over or Under) cash?

By season

By total edge size

89 games