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NFL edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Do totals finish the way they moved (up toward the Over, down toward the Under)?

NFL games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

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Went with the move
45.2%
of totals finished the way they moved
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ
35%break-even 52.4%70%
28–34 record
62 games
33–57% 95% range
62 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)

By season

Is it the same every year?
SeasonGamesRecordHit rate
20242711–1640.7%
20252915–1451.7%
2026 so far62–433.3%

By total move size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
Edge sizeGamesRecordHit rateAnd up
0.5–1218–1338.1%45.2% 62
1.5–2.52011–955.0%48.8% 41
3–4.5127–558.3%42.9% 21
5+92–722.2%22.2% 9

62 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
GameClosingTotal moveResultFinal
HOU vs JAX
2026 · Week 6
JAX -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–31
 JAX -2.5 · 42.5 Up 1 41.5 → 42.5 W O 34–31
IND @ PIT
2026 · Week 5
PIT -3 · 42.5 · final 22–34
 PIT -3 · 42.5 Down 5 47.5 → 42.5 L O 22–34
NYG @ WSH
2026 · Week 5
WSH -3.5 · 41.5 · final 27–27
 WSH -3.5 · 41.5 Down 7 48.5 → 41.5 L O 27–27
PIT @ CLE
2026 · Week 4
PIT -2.5 · 38.5 · final 24–27
 PIT -2.5 · 38.5 Down 2 40.5 → 38.5 L O 24–27
TEN @ NYG
2026 · Week 3
NYG -2.5 · 37.5 · final 7–12
 NYG -2.5 · 37.5 Down 8 45.5 → 37.5 W U 7–12
SEA @ WSH
2026 · Week 3
SEA -8.5 · 40.5 · final 31–33
 SEA -8.5 · 40.5 Down 6 46.5 → 40.5 L O 31–33
SF @ PHI
2025 · Postseason
PHI -5.5 · 44.5 · final 23–19
 PHI -5.5 · 44.5 Down 2 46.5 → 44.5 W U 23–19
LAR @ CAR
2025 · Postseason
LAR -10 · 44.5 · final 34–31
 LAR -10 · 44.5 Down 2 46.5 → 44.5 L O 34–31
ARI @ CIN
2025 · Week 17
CIN -7 · 53.5 · final 14–37
 CIN -7 · 53.5 Up 2 51.5 → 53.5 L U 14–37
PIT @ CLE
2025 · Week 17
PIT -3.5 · 34.5 · final 6–13
 PIT -3.5 · 34.5 Down 1 35.5 → 34.5 W U 6–13
NO @ TEN
2025 · Week 17
NO -1.5 · 38.5 · final 34–26
 NO -1.5 · 38.5 Down 1 39.5 → 38.5 L O 34–26
BUF @ CLE
2025 · Week 16
BUF -10.5 · 41.5 · final 23–20
 BUF -10.5 · 41.5 Down 1 42.5 → 41.5 L O 23–20
MIN @ NYG
2025 · Week 16
MIN -2.5 · 41.5 · final 16–13
 MIN -2.5 · 41.5 Down 2 43.5 → 41.5 W U 16–13
GB @ CHI
2025 · Week 16
CHI -1.5 · 44.5 · final 16–22
 CHI -1.5 · 44.5 Down 2 46.5 → 44.5 W U 16–22
LAR @ SEA
2025 · Week 16
SEA -1.5 · 42.5 · final 37–38
 SEA -1.5 · 42.5 Down 5 47.5 → 42.5 L O 37–38
LV @ PHI
2025 · Week 15
PHI -12.5 · 36.5 · final 0–31
 PHI -12.5 · 36.5 Down 4 40.5 → 36.5 W U 0–31
BUF @ PIT
2025 · Week 13
BUF -3 · 44.5 · final 26–7
 BUF -3 · 44.5 Down 2 46.5 → 44.5 W U 26–7
SF @ CLE
2025 · Week 13
SF -5.5 · 35.5 · final 26–8
 SF -5.5 · 35.5 Down 4 39.5 → 35.5 W U 26–8
DET @ PHI
2025 · Week 11
PHI -2.5 · 45.5 · final 9–16
 PHI -2.5 · 45.5 Down 2 47.5 → 45.5 W U 9–16
BAL @ CLE
2025 · Week 11
BAL -7.5 · 37.5 · final 23–16
 BAL -7.5 · 37.5 Down 4 41.5 → 37.5 L O 23–16
TB @ BUF
2025 · Week 11
BUF -6.5 · 44.5 · final 32–44
 BUF -6.5 · 44.5 Down 6 50.5 → 44.5 L O 32–44
GB @ NYG
2025 · Week 11
GB -7.5 · 42.5 · final 27–20
 GB -7.5 · 42.5 Down 2 44.5 → 42.5 L O 27–20
CIN @ PIT
2025 · Week 11
PIT -5.5 · 47.5 · final 12–34
 PIT -5.5 · 47.5 Down 3 50.5 → 47.5 W U 12–34
LAC @ JAX
2025 · Week 11
LAC -2.5 · 42.5 · final 6–35
 LAC -2.5 · 42.5 Down 2 44.5 → 42.5 W U 6–35
NYG @ CHI
2025 · Week 10
CHI -4.5 · 44.5 · final 20–24
 CHI -4.5 · 44.5 Down 4 48.5 → 44.5 W U 20–24
NO @ CAR
2025 · Week 10
CAR -5.5 · 38.5 · final 17–7
 CAR -5.5 · 38.5 Down 2 40.5 → 38.5 W U 17–7
CAR @ GB
2025 · Week 9
GB -13.5 · 43.5 · final 16–13
 GB -13.5 · 43.5 Up 1 42.5 → 43.5 L U 16–13
NO @ CHI
2025 · Week 7
CHI -3.5 · 43.5 · final 14–26
 CHI -3.5 · 43.5 Down 2 45.5 → 43.5 W U 14–26
MIA @ CLE
2025 · Week 7
CLE -2.5 · 35.5 · final 6–31
 CLE -2.5 · 35.5 Down 5 40.5 → 35.5 L O 6–31
CAR @ NYJ
2025 · Week 7
NYJ -1.5 · 39.5 · final 13–6
 NYJ -1.5 · 39.5 Down 5 44.5 → 39.5 W U 13–6
CHI @ WSH
2025 · Week 6
WSH -5.5 · 48.5 · final 25–24
 WSH -5.5 · 48.5 Down 1 49.5 → 48.5 L O 25–24
DAL @ CAR
2025 · Week 6
DAL -2.5 · 45.5 · final 27–30
 DAL -2.5 · 45.5 Down 3 48.5 → 45.5 L O 27–30
MIN vs CLE
2025 · Week 5
MIN -3.5 · 35.5 · final 21–17
 MIN -3.5 · 35.5 Down 2 37.5 → 35.5 L O 21–17
HOU @ JAX
2025 · Week 3
JAX -1.5 · 42.5 · final 10–17
 JAX -1.5 · 42.5 Down 1 43.5 → 42.5 W U 10–17
PHI @ KC
2025 · Week 2
PHI -1.5 · 46.5 · final 20–17
 PHI -1.5 · 46.5 Up 1 45.5 → 46.5 L U 20–17
MIA @ NYJ
2024 · Week 18
NYJ -2.5 · 39.5 · final 20–32
 NYJ -2.5 · 39.5 Down 2 41.5 → 39.5 L O 20–32
BUF @ NE
2024 · Week 18
BUF -3.5 · 36.5 · final 16–23
 BUF -3.5 · 36.5 Down 5 41.5 → 36.5 L O 16–23
NYG @ PHI
2024 · Week 18
PHI -2.5 · 35.5 · final 13–20
 PHI -2.5 · 35.5 Down 3 38.5 → 35.5 W U 13–20
CLE @ BAL
2024 · Week 18
BAL -20.5 · 41.5 · final 10–35
 BAL -20.5 · 41.5 Down 1 42.5 → 41.5 L O 10–35
ATL @ WSH
2024 · Week 17
WSH -3.5 · 46.5 · final 24–30
 WSH -3.5 · 46.5 Down 1 47.5 → 46.5 L O 24–30
NYJ @ BUF
2024 · Week 17
BUF -10.5 · 44.5 · final 14–40
 BUF -10.5 · 44.5 Down 3 47.5 → 44.5 L O 14–40
CAR @ TB
2024 · Week 17
TB -9.5 · 47.5 · final 14–48
 TB -9.5 · 47.5 Down 1 48.5 → 47.5 L O 14–48
MIN @ SEA
2024 · Week 16
MIN -2.5 · 43.5 · final 27–24
 MIN -2.5 · 43.5 Up 1 42.5 → 43.5 W O 27–24
PIT @ BAL
2024 · Week 16
BAL -7.5 · 45.5 · final 17–34
 BAL -7.5 · 45.5 Down 1 46.5 → 45.5 L O 17–34
KC @ CLE
2024 · Week 15
KC -3.5 · 41.5 · final 21–7
 KC -3.5 · 41.5 Down 1 42.5 → 41.5 W U 21–7
CIN @ TEN
2024 · Week 15
CIN -6.5 · 46.5 · final 37–27
 CIN -6.5 · 46.5 Down 2 48.5 → 46.5 L O 37–27
NO @ NYG
2024 · Week 14
NO -5.5 · 41.5 · final 14–11
 NO -5.5 · 41.5 Up 2 39.5 → 41.5 L U 14–11
CAR @ PHI
2024 · Week 14
PHI -13.5 · 44.5 · final 16–22
 PHI -13.5 · 44.5 Down 1 45.5 → 44.5 W U 16–22
CLE @ PIT
2024 · Week 14
PIT -6.5 · 42.5 · final 14–27
 PIT -6.5 · 42.5 Up 1 41.5 → 42.5 L U 14–27
TB @ NYG
2024 · Week 12
TB -6.5 · 40.5 · final 30–7
 TB -6.5 · 40.5 Down 2 42.5 → 40.5 W U 30–7
Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 62
Total move is the closing total against the opening total; a total that moved up went with the move if the game went Over, and one that moved down if it stayed Under. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.