Does the side the model likes on the total (Over or Under) cash?
FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.
Model side cashed
54.3%
of the model’s total picks cashed
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ35%break-even 52.4%70%
139–117 record
256 games
48–60% 95% range
256 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)
By season
Is it the same every year?
| Season | Games | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 62 | 28–34 | 45.2% |
| 2024 | 89 | 50–39 | 56.2% |
| 2025 | 81 | 50–31 | 61.7% |
| 2026 so far | 24 | 11–13 | 45.8% |
By total edge size
Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
| Edge size | Games | Record | Hit rate | And up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5 | 98 | 48–50 | 49.0% | 54.3% 256 |
| 2–3.5 | 90 | 51–39 | 56.7% | 57.6% 158 |
| 4–5.5 | 46 | 26–20 | 56.5% | 58.8% 68 |
| 6+ | 22 | 14–8 | 63.6% | 63.6% 22 |
256 games
Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
| Game | Closing | Total edge | Result | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 7 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10 |
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 | Over 46.5 model 48 · edge 1.5 | L U | 21–10 |
2026 · Week 7 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31 |
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 | Over 56.5 model 57.5 · edge 1 | L U | 0–31 |
2026 · Week 7 PUR -3 · 50.5 · final 38–26 |
PUR -3 · 50.5 | Over 50.5 model 54 · edge 3.5 | W O | 38–26 |
2026 · Week 7 MEM -6.5 · 55.5 · final 17–31 |
MEM -6.5 · 55.5 | Under 55.5 model 49 · edge 6.5 | W U | 17–31 |
2026 · Week 6 LSU -9.5 · 50.5 · final 34–35 |
LSU -9.5 · 50.5 | Under 50.5 model 49 · edge 1.5 | L O | 34–35 |
2026 · Week 6 MISS -9.5 · 54.5 · final 52–17 |
MISS -9.5 · 54.5 | Over 54.5 model 58 · edge 3.5 | W O | 52–17 |
2026 · Week 6 KSU -2.5 · 55.5 · final 35–16 |
KSU -2.5 · 55.5 | Under 55.5 model 52.5 · edge 3 | W U | 35–16 |
2026 · Week 6 DUKE -4.5 · 45.5 · final 25–28 |
DUKE -4.5 · 45.5 | Over 45.5 model 49.5 · edge 4 | W O | 25–28 |
2026 · Week 6 ECU -10 · 46.5 · final 12–28 |
ECU -10 · 46.5 | Under 46.5 model 46 · edge 0.5 | W U | 12–28 |
2026 · Week 6 APP -8.5 · 45.5 · final 10–3 |
APP -8.5 · 45.5 | Over 45.5 model 47 · edge 1.5 | L U | 10–3 |
2026 · Week 6 IU -9.5 · 48.5 · final 20–17 |
IU -9.5 · 48.5 | Over 48.5 model 52 · edge 3.5 | L U | 20–17 |
2026 · Week 5 ARIZ -7 · 56.5 · final 7–34 |
ARIZ -7 · 56.5 | Under 56.5 model 54.5 · edge 2 | W U | 7–34 |
2026 · Week 5 ISU -3 · 53.5 · final 42–45 |
ISU -3 · 53.5 | Under 53.5 model 49.5 · edge 4 | L O | 42–45 |
2026 · Week 5 MICH -6.5 · 41.5 · final 14–20 |
MICH -6.5 · 41.5 | Over 41.5 model 42.5 · edge 1 | L U | 14–20 |
2026 · Week 4 UVA -19.5 · 52.5 · final 3–42 |
UVA -19.5 · 52.5 | Under 52.5 model 50.5 · edge 2 | W U | 3–42 |
2026 · Week 4 JMU -7 · 44.5 · final 46–20 |
JMU -7 · 44.5 | Under 44.5 model 43 · edge 1.5 | L O | 46–20 |
2026 · Week 4 UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 · final 54–3 |
UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 | Under 55.5 model 54 · edge 1.5 | L O | 54–3 |
2026 · Week 4 VT -14.5 · 45.5 · final 21–14 |
VT -14.5 · 45.5 | Over 45.5 model 48 · edge 2.5 | L U | 21–14 |
 HOW @  RUTG2026 · Week 4 RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 · final 7–58 |
RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 | Over 57.5 model 61 · edge 3.5 | W O | 7–58 |
2026 · Week 2 FRES -17.5 · 43.5 · final 3–49 |
FRES -17.5 · 43.5 | Under 43.5 model 41.5 · edge 2 | L O | 3–49 |
 MTST @  NEV2026 · Week 2 MTST -4.5 · 51.5 · final 20–7 |
MTST -4.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 48.5 · edge 3 | W U | 20–7 |
 UNCO @  WYO2026 · Week 2 WYO -23.5 · 44.5 · final 13–21 |
WYO -23.5 · 44.5 | Under 44.5 model 37 · edge 7.5 | W U | 13–21 |
2026 · Week 1 WKU -1.5 · 51.5 · final 14–49 |
WKU -1.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 46 · edge 5.5 | L O | 14–49 |
2026 · Week 1 UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 · final 21–6 |
UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 | Over 55.5 model 57 · edge 1.5 | L U | 21–6 |
2025 · Postseason GASO -10 · 58.5 · final 29–10 |
GASO -10 · 58.5 | Over 58.5 model 59 · edge 0.5 | L U | 29–10 |
2025 · Postseason HAW -1.5 · 50.5 · final 31–35 |
HAW -1.5 · 50.5 | Under 50.5 model 48.5 · edge 2 | L O | 31–35 |
2025 · Postseason LOU -11.5 · 44.5 · final 22–27 |
LOU -11.5 · 44.5 | Over 44.5 model 46.5 · edge 2 | W O | 22–27 |
2025 · Postseason MISS -16.5 · 57.5 · final 10–41 |
MISS -16.5 · 57.5 | Under 57.5 model 57 · edge 0.5 | W U | 10–41 |
2025 · Postseason OU -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–24 |
OU -2.5 · 42.5 | Under 42.5 model 40.5 · edge 2 | L O | 34–24 |
2025 · Postseason WMU -3.5 · 47.5 · final 6–41 |
WMU -3.5 · 47.5 | Under 47.5 model 44.5 · edge 3 | W U | 6–41 |
2025 · Week 14 ILL -7 · 43.5 · final 13–20 |
ILL -7 · 43.5 | Over 43.5 model 44.5 · edge 1 | L U | 13–20 |
2025 · Week 14 UL -10.5 · 47.5 · final 27–30 |
UL -10.5 · 47.5 | Under 47.5 model 47 · edge 0.5 | L O | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 14 TXST -9.5 · 62.5 · final 26–49 |
TXST -9.5 · 62.5 | Under 62.5 model 60.5 · edge 2 | L O | 26–49 |
2025 · Week 14 TLSA -9.5 · 56.5 · final 31–24 |
TLSA -9.5 · 56.5 | Under 56.5 model 53.5 · edge 3 | W U | 31–24 |
2025 · Week 14 ARST -1.5 · 54.5 · final 30–29 |
ARST -1.5 · 54.5 | Under 54.5 model 53.5 · edge 1 | L O | 30–29 |
2025 · Week 14 KSU -16.5 · 49.5 · final 14–24 |
KSU -16.5 · 49.5 | Under 49.5 model 46 · edge 3.5 | W U | 14–24 |
2025 · Week 14 ISU -14 · 47.5 · final 20–13 |
ISU -14 · 47.5 | Under 47.5 model 45 · edge 2.5 | W U | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 14 ECU -6.5 · 66.5 · final 42–3 |
ECU -6.5 · 66.5 | Under 66.5 model 59.5 · edge 7 | W U | 42–3 |
2025 · Week 14 OHIO -7 · 44.5 · final 31–26 |
OHIO -7 · 44.5 | Under 44.5 model 43 · edge 1.5 | L O | 31–26 |
2025 · Week 13 SC -24.5 · 50.5 · final 7–51 |
SC -24.5 · 50.5 | Under 50.5 model 46 · edge 4.5 | L O | 7–51 |
2025 · Week 13 TROY -10.5 · 51.5 · final 19–31 |
TROY -10.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 50.5 · edge 1 | W U | 19–31 |
2025 · Week 13 MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 · final 24–26 |
MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 | Under 57.5 model 54.5 · edge 3 | W U | 24–26 |
2025 · Week 13 ODU -10.5 · 62.5 · final 45–10 |
ODU -10.5 · 62.5 | Under 62.5 model 58 · edge 4.5 | W U | 45–10 |
2025 · Week 13 UGA -42.5 · 53.5 · final 3–35 |
UGA -42.5 · 53.5 | Under 53.5 model 49 · edge 4.5 | W U | 3–35 |
2025 · Week 13 MIA -17.5 · 48.5 · final 34–17 |
MIA -17.5 · 48.5 | Under 48.5 model 46 · edge 2.5 | L O | 34–17 |
2025 · Week 12 OSU -32.5 · 46.5 · final 10–48 |
OSU -32.5 · 46.5 | Under 46.5 model 44.5 · edge 2 | L O | 10–48 |
2025 · Week 12 TENN -41.5 · 60.5 · final 9–42 |
TENN -41.5 · 60.5 | Under 60.5 model 56 · edge 4.5 | W U | 9–42 |
2025 · Week 12 TTU -24.5 · 48.5 · final 9–48 |
TTU -24.5 · 48.5 | Under 48.5 model 47.5 · edge 1 | L O | 9–48 |
2025 · Week 12 PSU -6.5 · 49.5 · final 28–10 |
PSU -6.5 · 49.5 | Under 49.5 model 49 · edge 0.5 | W U | 28–10 |
2025 · Week 12 ILL -15.5 · 51.5 · final 6–24 |
ILL -15.5 · 51.5 | Under 51.5 model 50 · edge 1.5 | W U | 6–24 |
UNM
HAW
MSST
LSU
WASH
PUR
MEM
TULN
UK
MISS
VAN
HOU
KSU
DUKE
GT
RICE
ECU
ODU
APP
IU
NEB
CIN
ARIZ
WVU
ISU
MICH
MINN
DEL
UVA
JMU
UCLA
MD
VT
BC
SAC
FRES
WKU
UNLV
GASO
CAL
TOL
LOU
ALA
OU
KENN
WMU
NU
ILL
ULM
UL
USA
TXST
UAB
TLSA
ARST
COLO
OKST
FAU
OHIO
BUFF
CCU
SC
GAST
TROY
MRSH
CLT
UGA
MIA
OSU
NMSU
TENN
UCF
TTU
PSU
MSUTotal edge is the model’s projected total minus the closing total, in points; the side is Over when the model projects more points than the market, Under when fewer. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.