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College edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Does the team the spread moved toward cover?

FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

Moved-toward team covered
50.7%
of the teams the line moved toward covered
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ
35%break-even 52.4%70%
954–926–8 record (pushes last)
1,888 games
48–53% 95% range
1,880 decided games · 2023–2026 · every game with a signal

By season

Is it the same every year?
SeasonGamesRecordHit rate
2024749372–37749.7%
2025705345–358–249.1%
2026 so far434237–191–655.4%

By line move size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
Edge sizeGamesRecordHit rateAnd up
0.5–1811404–403–450.1%50.7% 1,880
1.5–2.5545277–266–251.0%51.3% 1,073
3–4.5403206–195–251.4%51.5% 530
5+12967–6251.9%51.9% 129

1,888 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
GameClosingLine moveResultFinal
ECU @ MEM
2026 · Week 8
MEM -10.5 · 55.5 · final 34–41
 MEM -10.5 · 55.5 MEM -9.5 → -10.5 moved 1 L 34–41
JMU @ APP
2026 · Week 8
JMU -12.5 · 56.5 · final 31–34
 JMU -12.5 · 56.5 JMU -10.5 → -12.5 moved 2 L 31–34
NMSU @ SHSU
2026 · Week 8
NMSU -3 · 46.5 · final 30–24
 NMSU -3 · 46.5 NMSU -2.5 → -3 moved 0.5 W 30–24
USA @ MRSH
2026 · Week 8
USA -1.5 · 66.5 · final 13–20
 USA -1.5 · 66.5 MRSH +3 → +1.5 moved 1.5 W 13–20
MTSU @ FIU
2026 · Week 8
FIU -10.5 · 46.5 · final 26–23
 FIU -10.5 · 46.5 FIU -10 → -10.5 moved 0.5 L 26–23
NEB @ ORE
2026 · Week 7
ORE -6.5 · 50.5 · final 14–17
 ORE -6.5 · 50.5 NEB +21.5 → +6.5 moved 15 W 14–17
WAKE @ CAL
2026 · Week 7
WAKE -10 · 54.5 · final 41–7
 WAKE -10 · 54.5 WAKE -8.5 → -10 moved 1.5 W 41–7
FRES @ SDSU
2026 · Week 7
FRES -6.5 · 46.5 · final 23–26
 FRES -6.5 · 46.5 SDSU +8.5 → +6.5 moved 2 W 23–26
UNM @ HAW
2026 · Week 7
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10
 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 HAW +15.5 → +14.5 moved 1 W 21–10
UTAH @ COLO
2026 · Week 7
UTAH -15.5 · 49.5 · final 27–24
 UTAH -15.5 · 49.5 COLO +16.5 → +15.5 moved 1 W 27–24
OHIO @ SAC
2026 · Week 7
OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 · final 48–7
 OHIO -17.5 · 46.5 OHIO -13.5 → -17.5 moved 4 W 48–7
SJSU @ UTEP
2026 · Week 7
SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 · final 24–11
 SJSU -6.5 · 46.5 UTEP +10 → +6.5 moved 3.5 L 24–11
NAVY @ UTSA
2026 · Week 7
UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 · final 34–38
 UTSA -5.5 · 52.5 NAVY +7 → +5.5 moved 1.5 W 34–38
LT @ ULM
2026 · Week 7
LT -13.5 · 55.5 · final 24–0
 LT -13.5 · 55.5 ULM +14.5 → +13.5 moved 1 L 24–0
ND @ BYU
2026 · Week 7
ND -10.5 · 47.5 · final 24–28
 ND -10.5 · 47.5 BYU +11.5 → +10.5 moved 1 W 24–28
WIS @ UCLA
2026 · Week 7
UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 · final 7–17
 UCLA -1.5 · 42.5 WIS +3 → +1.5 moved 1.5 L 7–17
UK @ OU
2026 · Week 7
OU -7 · 44.5 · final 21–13
 OU -7 · 44.5 OU -6.5 → -7 moved 0.5 L 21–13
OKST @ HOU
2026 · Week 7
HOU -4 · 62.5 · final 32–35
 HOU -4 · 62.5 HOU -3.5 → -4 moved 0.5 L 32–35
ELON @ STAN
2026 · Week 7
STAN -33.5 · 55.5 · final 7–34
 STAN -33.5 · 55.5 ELON +35.5 → +33.5 moved 2 W 7–34
LOU @ SYR
2026 · Week 7
LOU -14.5 · 56.5 · final 34–26
 LOU -14.5 · 56.5 LOU -10.5 → -14.5 moved 4 L 34–26
FSU @ MIA
2026 · Week 7
MIA -20.5 · 57.5 · final 35–43
 MIA -20.5 · 57.5 MIA -16.5 → -20.5 moved 4 L 35–43
ARK @ VAN
2026 · Week 7
VAN -5.5 · 48.5 · final 31–21
 VAN -5.5 · 48.5 ARK +6.5 → +5.5 moved 1 W 31–21
TCU @ BAY
2026 · Week 7
BAY -3.5 · 50.5 · final 17–6
 BAY -3.5 · 50.5 TCU +6.5 → +3.5 moved 3 W 17–6
KENT @ USF
2026 · Week 7
USF -20.5 · 46.5 · final 2–29
 USF -20.5 · 46.5 USF -18.5 → -20.5 moved 2 W 2–29
ARST @ USM
2026 · Week 7
ARST -5.5 · 61.5 · final 23–13
 ARST -5.5 · 61.5 USM +6.5 → +5.5 moved 1 L 23–13
WSU @ ORST
2026 · Week 7
ORST -18.5 · 52.5 · final 30–48
 ORST -18.5 · 52.5 ORST -17.5 → -18.5 moved 1 L 30–48
TROY @ UL
2026 · Week 7
UL -3 · 49.5 · final 6–33
 UL -3 · 49.5 TROY +3.5 → +3 moved 0.5 L 6–33
TLSA @ RICE
2026 · Week 7
TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 · final 38–17
 TLSA -3.5 · 47.5 TLSA -2.5 → -3.5 moved 1 W 38–17
AUB @ UGA
2026 · Week 7
UGA -19.5 · 50.5 · final 27–24
 UGA -19.5 · 50.5 UGA -16.5 → -19.5 moved 3 L 27–24
ALA @ TENN
2026 · Week 7
ALA -7.5 · 50.5 · final 10–26
 ALA -7.5 · 50.5 ALA -1.5 → -7.5 moved 6 L 10–26
MIZ @ MISS
2026 · Week 7
MISS -4 · 57.5 · final 3–31
 MISS -4 · 57.5 MIZ +6 → +4 moved 2 L 3–31
ASU @ TTU
2026 · Week 7
TTU -16.5 · 50.5 · final 25–53
 TTU -16.5 · 50.5 TTU -12.5 → -16.5 moved 4 W 25–53
GT @ VT
2026 · Week 7
VT -8.5 · 55.5 · final 24–34
 VT -8.5 · 55.5 GT +10 → +8.5 moved 1.5 L 24–34
UNC @ DUKE
2026 · Week 7
DUKE -3 · 46.5 · final 24–20
 DUKE -3 · 46.5 UNC +4.5 → +3 moved 1.5 W 24–20
PSU @ MICH
2026 · Week 7
MICH -6 · 43.5 · final 18–21
 MICH -6 · 43.5 PSU +6.5 → +6 moved 0.5 W 18–21
NIU @ WYO
2026 · Week 7
WYO -7 · 42.5 · final 23–41
 WYO -7 · 42.5 NIU +7.5 → +7 moved 0.5 L 23–41
UNLV @ AFA
2026 · Week 7
AFA -1.5 · 49.5 · final 31–41
 AFA -1.5 · 49.5 AFA +3 → -1.5 moved 4.5 W 31–41
TOL @ EMU
2026 · Week 7
TOL -7.5 · 51.5 · final 34–14
 TOL -7.5 · 51.5 TOL -6.5 → -7.5 moved 1 W 34–14
WMU @ CMU
2026 · Week 7
WMU -7.5 · 42.5 · final 21–14
 WMU -7.5 · 42.5 WMU -7 → -7.5 moved 0.5 L 21–14
CIT @ TA&M
2026 · Week 7
TA&M -46.5 · 56.5 · final 0–41
 TA&M -46.5 · 56.5 TA&M -45.5 → -46.5 moved 1 L 0–41
CLT @ TEM
2026 · Week 7
TEM -17.5 · 47.5 · final 38–31
 TEM -17.5 · 47.5 CLT +23.5 → +17.5 moved 6 W 38–31
MASS @ BUFF
2026 · Week 7
BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 · final 18–25
 BUFF -6.5 · 43.5 BUFF -4.5 → -6.5 moved 2 W 18–25
RUTG @ MD
2026 · Week 7
MD -5.5 · 55.5 · final 37–30
 MD -5.5 · 55.5 MD -4.5 → -5.5 moved 1 L 37–30
OSU @ IU
2026 · Week 7
OSU -3 · 49.5 · final 19–15
 OSU -3 · 49.5 OSU PK → -3 moved 3 W 19–15
FLA @ TEX
2026 · Week 7
TEX -13.5 · 51.5 · final 27–24
 TEX -13.5 · 51.5 TEX -9.5 → -13.5 moved 4 L 27–24
MSST @ LSU
2026 · Week 7
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31
 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 LSU -12.5 → -17.5 moved 5 W 0–31
UVA @ SMU
2026 · Week 7
SMU -10 · 51.5 · final 13–23
 SMU -10 · 51.5 SMU -7.5 → -10 moved 2.5 P 13–23
NU @ MSU
2026 · Week 7
NU -7.5 · 50.5 · final 24–21
 NU -7.5 · 50.5 MSU +8.5 → +7.5 moved 1 W 24–21
KU @ KSU
2026 · Week 7
KSU -3 · 55.5 · final 24–35
 KSU -3 · 55.5 KU +8.5 → +3 moved 5.5 L 24–35
CHSO @ CLEM
2026 · Week 7
CLEM -42.5 · 53.5 · final 0–37
 CLEM -42.5 · 53.5 CHSO +43.5 → +42.5 moved 1 W 0–37
Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 1,000
Line move is the closing spread against the opening spread; the side is the team the line moved toward (so the price on it got worse). Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.