Bramlage Coliseum · at Kansas St · Conference game
Closing line
KSU -2.5✓ UCF covered by 11.5
KSU -2.5✓ UCF covered by 11.5Closing total170.5Under by 15.5
 UCF | This season | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| 13-2 | Record | 9-7 |
| 7-8 | ATS | 6-10 |
| 6-9 | O/U | 10-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCF 84–84 KSU · ✓ KSU (50%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 42 | 40 | 82 |
| KSU | 28 | 45 | 73 |
1st half: UCF 42, KSU 28 (UCF by 14). The model had UCF by 0.2 and a total of 78.8 (actual 70).
Team stats
| UCF | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-61 52% | Field goals | 29-65 45% |
| 7-15 47% | 3-pointers | 6-30 20% |
| 11-18 61% | Free throws | 9-15 60% |
| 35 7 off | Rebounds | 34 8 off |
| 18 | Assists | 25 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| UCF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themus Fulks G | 38 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 6-11 | 1-1 |
| Riley Kugel G | 34 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 6-11 | 2-4 |
| Jamichael Stillwell F | 30 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 8-14 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Burks F | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| John Bol C | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Devan Cambridge F | 25 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Chris Johnson G | 22 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Carmelo Pacheco G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jeremy Foumena C | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones, Elijah Hulsewe, George Beale Jr., Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Kris Parker
| KSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Haggerty G | 36 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 9-18 | 0-2 |
| Khamari McGriff F | 33 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Taj Manning F | 31 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 5-9 | 0-4 |
| Nate Johnson G | 30 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 2-9 | 1-7 |
| Abdi Bashir Jr. G | 25 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 4-13 | 4-13 |
| Bench | ||||||
| David Castillo G | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| CJ Jones G | 16 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Dorin Buca C | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Stephen Osei, Andrej Kostic, Exavier Wilson, Elias Rapieque, Marcus Johnson, Mobi Ikegwuruka
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketKSU -2.5
ModelUCF -0.1
Model edgeUCF +2.6
W UCF covered
Total
Market170.5
Model168.4
Model edgeUnder 2.1
W Under
Projected score
UCF 84.2 · KSU 84.2
UCF 82 · KSU 73
Win probability
KSU 50%
1st half
Spread
UCF -0.2
UCF -14.0
Total
78.8
70 points
Projected score
UCF 39.5 · KSU 39.3
UCF 42 · KSU 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKSU -2.5
no move
CloseKSU -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open170.5
no move
Close170.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
UCF +136 · KSU -162
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel UCF -0
model UCF -0
Opened 170.5 · unchangedmodel 168.5
model 168.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| KSU | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UCF 1–1 KSUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · UCF 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024-25 | KSU 76 @ UCF 80 | UCF -4.5 | KSU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | UCF 52 @ KSU 77 | KSU -5.5 | KSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UCF
15 games played
Straight up
13-2
87% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HOF | W 82-78 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 8 | vs VAN | L 93-105 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 166.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 11 | vs FAMU | W 97-60 | -23.5 | W +13.5 | 169.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 14 | @ TA&M | W 86-74 | +10.5 | W +22.5 | 172.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 17 | vs OAK | W 87-83 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs PITT | W 77-67 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 25 | vs QUIN | W 102-91 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 29 | vs VMI | W 82-57 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 7 | vs TOW | W 86-61 | -9.5 | W +15.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 17 | vs MER | W 81-63 | -16.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs FGCU | W 102-80 | -17.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 23 | vs FAU | W 85-80 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vs KU | W 81-75 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | @ OKST | L 76-87 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 175.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 11 | vs CIN | W 73-72 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
−4.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
−1.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
+13.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
+22.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
−9.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
+11.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
−2.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−0.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
+15.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
+1.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+4.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
−3.5
3
vsKU
KUW 81-75
+10.5
6
@OKST
OKSTL 76-87
−9.5
11
vsCIN
CINW 73-72
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
+19.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
+31.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
−12.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
−12.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
+6.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
−5.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
+30.5
29
vsVMI
VMIW 82-57
−20.5
7
vsTOW
TOWW 86-61
−1.5
17
vsMER
MERW 81-63
−16.5
20
vsFGCU
FGCUW 102-80
+20.5
23
vsFAU
FAUW 85-80
+2.5
3
vsKU
KUW 81-75
−1.5
6
@OKST
OKSTL 76-87
−12.5
11
vsCIN
CINW 73-72
−5.5
over 6under 9avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kansas St
16 games played
Straight up
9-7
56% wins
Against the spread
6-10
38% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-6
63% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs UNCG | W 93-64 | -18.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs BELL | W 98-71 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 13 | vs CAL | W 99-96 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 17 | vs TLSA | W 84-83 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 20 | vs MSST | W 98-77 | +2.5 | W +23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs NEB | L 85-86 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | @ IU | L 69-86 | +10.5 | L −6.5 | 164.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs BGSU | L 66-82 | -12.5 | L −28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs HALL | L 67-78 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 8 | vs MVSU | W 108-49 | -38.5 | W +20.5 | 160.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 13 | @ CREI | W 83-76 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs SDAK | W 106-76 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 176.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 28 | vs ULM | W 94-85 | -32.5 | L −23.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs BYU | L 73-83 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 174.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARIZ | L 76-101 | +17.5 | L −7.5 | 171.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @ ASU | L 84-87 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 169.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+10.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
−1.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
−3.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
−11.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+23.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+0.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−6.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−28.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−13.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
+20.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
+11.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+8.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
−23.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−2.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
−7.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
−1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 10avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+8.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
+0.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
+30.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
+6.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+10.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+2.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−9.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−11.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−3.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
−3.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
−0.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+5.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
+9.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−18.5
7
@ARIZ
ARIZL 76-101
+5.5
10
@ASU
ASUL 84-87
+1.5
over 10under 6avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UCF
13-2 overall · 2-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Cincinnati73–72
- L@ Oklahoma St76–87
- Wvs Kansas81–75
- Wvs FAU85–80
- Wvs FGCU102–80
3 days since their last game.
Kansas St
9-7 overall · 0-3 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Arizona St84–87
- L@ Arizona76–101
- Lvs BYU73–83
- Wvs UL Monroe94–85
- Wvs South Dakota106–76
4 days since their last game.