The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss · Conference game
Closing line
ALA -6.5✓ ALA covered by 12.5
ALA -6.5✓ ALA covered by 12.5Closing total164.5Over by 2.5
| ALA | This season | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| 16-7 | Record | 11-12 |
| 10-13 | ATS | 8-15 |
| 13-10 | O/U | 13-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ALA 87–79 MISS · ✓ ALA (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 32 | 61 | 93 |
| MISS | 30 | 44 | 74 |
1st half: ALA 32, MISS 30 (ALA by 2). The model had ALA by 4.9 and a total of 77.2 (actual 62).
Team stats
| ALA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-66 39% | Field goals | 29-69 42% |
| 17-45 38% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 24-26 92% | Free throws | 8-13 62% |
| 44 11 off | Rebounds | 39 9 off |
| 20 | Assists | 19 |
| 7 | Steals | 2 |
| 5 | Blocks | 4 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| ALA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labaron Philon Jr. G | 30 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Amari Allen G | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Aden Holloway G | 25 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| Aiden Sherrell F | 25 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| London Jemison F | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Latrell Wrightsell Jr. G | 31 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 7-14 | 7-13 |
| Houston Mallette G | 22 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen F | 15 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Noah Williamson C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jalil Bethea G | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Preston Murphy Jr., Davion Hannah, Keitenn Bristow, Collins Onyejiaka, Jacob Martin, Klark James, Jack Fagan
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Klafke G | 31 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Ilias Kamardine G | 25 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Patton Pinkins G | 25 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-9 | 1-2 |
| Koren Johnson G | 19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Storr G | 25 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 10-17 | 2-3 |
| Travis Perry G | 17 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-4 |
| Zach Day G | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| James Scott F | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Corey Chest F | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Malik Dia F | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Niko Bundalo F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Max Smith G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Tylis Jordan, Hobert Grayson IV, Kezza Giffa
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketALA -6.5
ModelALA -8.0
Model edgeALA +1.5
W ALA covered
Total
Market164.5
Model165.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
ALA 86.6 · MISS 78.6
ALA 93 · MISS 74
Win probability
ALA 76%
1st half
Spread
ALA -4.9
ALA -2.0
Total
77.2
62 points
Projected score
ALA 41.1 · MISS 36.2
ALA 32 · MISS 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALA -7.5
1 → MISS
CloseALA -6.5
1 pt toward MISS
Total
Open163.5
▲ 1
Close164.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ALA -325 · MISS +260
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALA -7.5 · closed ALA -6.5 · moved 1 toward MISSmodel ALA -8
model ALA -8
Opened 163.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 1 upmodel 165.5
model 165.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| MISS | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ALA 3–1 MISSALA leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · ALA 3-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | MISS 74 @ ALA 64 | ALA -11.5 | MISS W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | ALA 103 @ MISS 88 | MISS +5.5 | ALA W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | MISS 62 @ ALA 84 | ALA -10.5 | ALA W |
| Feb 9, 2021-22 | ALA 97 @ MISS 83 | MISS +5.5 | ALA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Alabama
23 games played
Straight up
16-7
70% wins
Against the spread
10-13
43% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-10
57% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UND | W 91-62 | -36.5 | L −7.5 | 170.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 8 | @ SJU | W 103-96 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 172.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 13 | vs PUR | L 80-87 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 19 | vs ILL | W 90-86 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 24 | vs GONZ | L 85-95 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs UNLV | W 115-76 | -13.5 | W +25.5 | 181.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 26 | vs MD | W 105-72 | -14.5 | W +18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 3 | vs CLEM | W 90-84 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 7 | vs UTSA | W 97-55 | -33.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ARIZ | L 75-96 | +2.5 | L −18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 17 | vs USF | W 104-93 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs KENN | W 92-81 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 182.5 | U 173 |
| Dec 29 | vs YALE | W 102-78 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs UK | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ VAN | L 90-96 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 176.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 10 | vs TEX | L 88-92 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 13 | @ MSST | W 97-82 | -4.5 | W +10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 17 | @ OU | W 83-81 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 177.5 | U 164 |
| Jan 24 | vs TENN | L 73-79 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 27 | vs MIZ | W 90-64 | -10.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 1 | @ FLA | L 77-100 | +9.5 | L −13.5 | 176.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 4 | vs TA&M | W 100-97 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 180.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 7 | @ AUB | W 96-92 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 175.5 | O 188 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−7.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+11.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−10.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
+6.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
−5.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+25.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+18.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
−2.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
+8.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−18.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
−3.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
+9.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
−2.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
−15.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+10.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−3.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−10.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
+15.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
−13.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
−5.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+6.5
covered 10didn’t cover 13avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−17.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+26.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−5.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
−4.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
+1.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+9.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+10.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
+8.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
−19.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−7.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
+18.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
−10.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
+9.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
+2.5
13
@MSST
MSSTW 97-82
+7.5
17
@OU
OUW 83-81
−13.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 73-79
−15.5
27
vsMIZ
MIZW 90-64
−13.5
1
@FLA
FLAL 77-100
+0.5
4
vsTA&M
TA&MW 100-97
+16.5
7
@AUB
AUBW 96-92
+12.5
over 13under 10avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ole Miss
23 games played
Straight up
11-12
48% wins
Against the spread
8-15
35% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-10
57% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs MEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs UTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIA | L 66-75 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | @SJU | L 58-63 | +13.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs USM | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs AAMU | W 80-66 | -20.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 21 | vs NCSU | L 62-76 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALCN | W 79-43 | -28.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 3 | @OU | L 70-86 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 7 | vs ARK | L 87-94 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | vsMIZ | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | @ UGA | W 97-95 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 17 | @MSST | W 68-67 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 20 | vsAUB | L 66-78 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @UK | L 63-72 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @VAN | L 68-71 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | @TENN | L 66-84 | +12.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 7 | @TEX | L 68-79 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−10.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
+8.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−8.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
−6.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
+7.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
−3.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+5.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+12.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
+4.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−8.5
24
@UK
UKL 63-72
+2.5
31
@VAN
VANL 68-71
+7.5
3
@TENN
TENNL 66-84
−5.5
7
@TEX
TEXL 68-79
−1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
−30.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−0.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
+10.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−10.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
−26.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
+9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
+27.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+1.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+33.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
−12.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−7.5
24
@UK
UKL 63-72
−10.5
31
@VAN
VANL 68-71
−10.5
3
@TENN
TENNL 66-84
+10.5
7
@TEX
TEXL 68-79
+1.5
over 13under 10avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Alabama
16-7 overall · 6-4 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Auburn96–92
- Wvs Texas A&M100–97
- L@ Florida77–100
- Wvs Missouri90–64
- Lvs Tennessee73–79
4 days since their last game.
Ole Miss
11-12 overall · 3-7 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas68–79
- L@ Tennessee66–84
- L@ Vanderbilt68–71
- L@ Kentucky63–72
- Lvs Auburn66–78
4 days since their last game.