When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
874 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 450 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
Went over in Q4, leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 46 games
2023–2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 |
PIT -2.5 | 37.5 | 316193845 | Q4 | PIT OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
26–19 |
2026 · Week 5 |
ATL -3 | 44.5 | 1023324653 | Q4 | BAL Q3 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
30–23 |
2026 · Week 5 |
WSH -3.5 | 41.5 | 915325454 | Q4 | NYG Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–27 |
2026 · Week 4 |
LAR -4.5 | 42.5 | 6303044 | Q4 | PHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
24–20 |
2026 · Week 3 |
DEN -1.5 | 44.5 | 7163256 | Q4 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
26–30 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BAL -3 | 54.5 | 17304565 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
34–31 |
2026 · Week 2 |
TB -8.5 | 41.5 | 9153242 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
23–19 |
2025 · Postseason |
DEN -1.5 | 45.5 | 1030406063 | Q4 | DEN OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–33 |
2025 · Postseason |
GB -1.5 | 46.5 | 10242758 | Q4 | CHI Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 18 |
BAL -4.5 | 41.5 | 7132350 | Q4 | PIT Q3 Late over Lead lost |
24–26 |
2025 · Week 16 |
BAL -3.5 | 47.5 | 7203052 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
28–24 |
2025 · Week 15 |
TB -6 | 43.5 | 7273457 | Q4 | ATL Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–28 |
2025 · Week 13 |
ATL -3 | 38.5 | 0143151 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 12 |
JAX -1.5 | 46.5 | 1424314851 | Q4 | JAX OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 12 |
DET -14.5 | 50.5 | 1037375461 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
27–34 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BAL -7.5 | 37.5 | 6262639 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
23–16 |
2025 · Week 11 |
ATL -4.5 | 41.5 | 1431405457 | Q4 | CAR Q3 Late over Lead lost |
30–27 |
2025 · Week 11 |
GB -7.5 | 42.5 | 7263247 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–20 |
2025 · Week 9 |
JAX -1.5 | 44.5 | 09154659 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–29 |
2025 · Week 7 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 3193350 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–23 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DEN -7.5 | 40.5 | 7131965 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
32–33 |
2025 · Week 6 |
WSH -5.5 | 48.5 | 6203349 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2025 · Week 6 |
IND -8.5 | 46.5 | 14244158 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
ARI -7.5 | 41.5 | 17272743 | Q4 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
22–21 |
2025 · Week 5 |
MIN -3.5 | 35.5 | 14173138 | Q4 | MIN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–17 |
2025 · Week 4 |
GB -6.5 | 46.5 | 729437480 | Q4 | DAL Q2 Lead lost |
40–40 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LV -2.5 | 46.5 | 10233749 | Q4 | CHI Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2025 · Week 2 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 14274858 | Q4 | CIN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–31 |
2024 · Week 15 |
NYJ -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203357 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
32–25 |
2024 · Week 13 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 13303349 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 0131643 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Lead lost |
19–24 |
2024 · Week 11 |
NYJ -4.5 | 43.5 | 3203355 | Q4 | IND Q1 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
NO -7.5 | 43.5 | 6233345 | Q4 | CAR Q1 Late over Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIA -4.5 | 46.5 | 10203855 | Q4 | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MIN -1.5 | 50.5 | 10314560 | Q4 | DET Q2 Lead lost |
31–29 |
2024 · Week 5 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 731457679 | Q4 | BAL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
41–38 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 14213551 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
KC -6.5 | 47.5 | 6263951 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Lead lost |
25–26 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SEA -3.5 | 39.5 | 1430304043 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 2 |
BAL -8.5 | 42.5 | 3152949 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–23 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SF -5.5 | 40 | 14273341 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 16 |
BUF -13 | 44 | 3243446 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over Lead lost |
24–22 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIA -13.5 | 44.5 | 7172355 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over Lead lost |
28–27 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DET -8 | 48 | 7243457 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–31 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SEA -4 | 38.5 | 24313744 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
20–24 |
2023 · Week 6 |
SF -9.5 | 35.5 | 7172336 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
17–19 |
PIT
TB
BAL
ATL
NYG
WSH
LAR
PHI
DEN
DAL
CLE
BUF
GB
CHI
NE
NYJ
JAX
ARI
DET
CAR
LV
IND
TEN
MIN
CIN
NO
MIA
SF
KC
SEA
LACWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 431
Q2 17% 152
Q3 11% 97
Q4 19% 168
OT 2% 15
Push 1% 11
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 816 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 833 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 111 | 100% 111 |
| 1–3 | 44 | 95% 42 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 87% 89 |
| 8–10 | 101 | 64% 65 |
| 11–14 | 117 | 60% 70 |
| 15–17 | 108 | 33% 36 |
| 18–21 | 121 | 19% 23 |
| 22+ | 170 | 8% 14 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.