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College edge explorer: how model edges and line moves did across seasons

Do totals finish the way they moved (up toward the Over, down toward the Under)?

FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.

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Went with the move
42.0%
of totals finished the way they moved
Below break-even ⓘ
35%break-even 52.4%70%
76–105 record
181 games
35–49% 95% range
181 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)

By season

Is it the same every year?
SeasonGamesRecordHit rate
20248335–4842.2%
20257328–4538.4%
2026 so far2513–1252.0%

By total move size

Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
Edge sizeGamesRecordHit rateAnd up
0.5–16124–3739.3%42.0% 181
1.5–2.54316–2737.2%43.3% 120
3–4.54826–2254.2%46.8% 77
5+2910–1934.5%34.5% 29

181 games

Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
GameClosingTotal moveResultFinal
UNM @ HAW
2026 · Week 7
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10
 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 Down 2 48.5 → 46.5 W U 21–10
MSST @ LSU
2026 · Week 7
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31
 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 Down 3 59.5 → 56.5 W U 0–31
PITT @ BC
2026 · Week 7
PITT -6.5 · 42.5 · final 21–27
 PITT -6.5 · 42.5 Down 4 46.5 → 42.5 L O 21–27
WASH @ PUR
2026 · Week 7
PUR -3 · 50.5 · final 38–26
 PUR -3 · 50.5 Down 1 51.5 → 50.5 L O 38–26
MEM @ TULN
2026 · Week 7
MEM -6.5 · 55.5 · final 17–31
 MEM -6.5 · 55.5 Up 2 53.5 → 55.5 L U 17–31
LSU @ UK
2026 · Week 6
LSU -9.5 · 50.5 · final 34–35
 LSU -9.5 · 50.5 Up 1 49.5 → 50.5 W O 34–35
MISS @ VAN
2026 · Week 6
MISS -9.5 · 54.5 · final 52–17
 MISS -9.5 · 54.5 Down 3 57.5 → 54.5 L O 52–17
HOU @ KSU
2026 · Week 6
KSU -2.5 · 55.5 · final 35–16
 KSU -2.5 · 55.5 Up 1 54.5 → 55.5 L U 35–16
DUKE @ GT
2026 · Week 6
DUKE -4.5 · 45.5 · final 25–28
 DUKE -4.5 · 45.5 Down 5 50.5 → 45.5 L O 25–28
RICE @ ECU
2026 · Week 6
ECU -10 · 46.5 · final 12–28
 ECU -10 · 46.5 Down 4 50.5 → 46.5 W U 12–28
ODU @ APP
2026 · Week 6
APP -8.5 · 45.5 · final 10–3
 APP -8.5 · 45.5 Down 6 51.5 → 45.5 W U 10–3
IU @ NEB
2026 · Week 6
IU -9.5 · 48.5 · final 20–17
 IU -9.5 · 48.5 Down 2 50.5 → 48.5 W U 20–17
CIN @ ARIZ
2026 · Week 5
ARIZ -7 · 56.5 · final 7–34
 ARIZ -7 · 56.5 Up 2 54.5 → 56.5 L U 7–34
MICH @ MINN
2026 · Week 5
MICH -6.5 · 41.5 · final 14–20
 MICH -6.5 · 41.5 Down 3 44.5 → 41.5 W U 14–20
DEL @ UVA
2026 · Week 4
UVA -19.5 · 52.5 · final 3–42
 UVA -19.5 · 52.5 Down 2 54.5 → 52.5 W U 3–42
JMU @ ODU
2026 · Week 4
JMU -7 · 44.5 · final 46–20
 JMU -7 · 44.5 Down 6 50.5 → 44.5 L O 46–20
UCLA @ MD
2026 · Week 4
UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 · final 54–3
 UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 Up 4 51.5 → 55.5 W O 54–3
VT @ BC
2026 · Week 4
VT -14.5 · 45.5 · final 21–14
 VT -14.5 · 45.5 Down 9 54.5 → 45.5 W U 21–14
HOW @ RUTG
2026 · Week 4
RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 · final 7–58
 RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 Up 2 55.5 → 57.5 W O 7–58
LIB @ CCU
2026 · Week 4
LIB -2.5 · 50.5 · final 34–17
 LIB -2.5 · 50.5 Down 4 54.5 → 50.5 L O 34–17
SAC @ FRES
2026 · Week 2
FRES -17.5 · 43.5 · final 3–49
 FRES -17.5 · 43.5 Down 5 48.5 → 43.5 L O 3–49
MTST @ NEV
2026 · Week 2
MTST -4.5 · 51.5 · final 20–7
 MTST -4.5 · 51.5 Up 2 49.5 → 51.5 L U 20–7
UNCO @ WYO
2026 · Week 2
WYO -23.5 · 44.5 · final 13–21
 WYO -23.5 · 44.5 Down 3 47.5 → 44.5 W U 13–21
WKU @ NEV
2026 · Week 1
WKU -1.5 · 51.5 · final 14–49
 WKU -1.5 · 51.5 Down 2 53.5 → 51.5 L O 14–49
UNLV @ HAW
2026 · Week 1
UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 · final 21–6
 UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 Down 2 57.5 → 55.5 W U 21–6
GASO vs APP
2025 · Postseason
GASO -10 · 58.5 · final 29–10
 GASO -10 · 58.5 Down 1 59.5 → 58.5 W U 29–10
CAL @ HAW
2025 · Postseason
HAW -1.5 · 50.5 · final 31–35
 HAW -1.5 · 50.5 Down 4 54.5 → 50.5 L O 31–35
TOL vs LOU
2025 · Postseason
LOU -11.5 · 44.5 · final 22–27
 LOU -11.5 · 44.5 Down 2 46.5 → 44.5 L O 22–27
TULN @ MISS
2025 · Postseason
MISS -16.5 · 57.5 · final 10–41
 MISS -16.5 · 57.5 Up 1 56.5 → 57.5 L U 10–41
ALA @ OU
2025 · Postseason
OU -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–24
 OU -2.5 · 42.5 Up 1 41.5 → 42.5 W O 34–24
NU @ ILL
2025 · Week 14
ILL -7 · 43.5 · final 13–20
 ILL -7 · 43.5 Down 4 47.5 → 43.5 W U 13–20
LSU @ OU
2025 · Week 14
OU -12.5 · 36.5 · final 13–17
 OU -12.5 · 36.5 Down 1 37.5 → 36.5 W U 13–17
ULM @ UL
2025 · Week 14
UL -10.5 · 47.5 · final 27–30
 UL -10.5 · 47.5 Down 1 48.5 → 47.5 L O 27–30
USA @ TXST
2025 · Week 14
TXST -9.5 · 62.5 · final 26–49
 TXST -9.5 · 62.5 Down 1 63.5 → 62.5 L O 26–49
ARST @ APP
2025 · Week 14
ARST -1.5 · 54.5 · final 30–29
 ARST -1.5 · 54.5 Down 2 56.5 → 54.5 L O 30–29
LT @ MOST
2025 · Week 14
MOST -2.5 · 45.5 · final 42–30
 MOST -2.5 · 45.5 Down 6 51.5 → 45.5 L O 42–30
COLO @ KSU
2025 · Week 14
KSU -16.5 · 49.5 · final 14–24
 KSU -16.5 · 49.5 Down 1 50.5 → 49.5 W U 14–24
ISU @ OKST
2025 · Week 14
ISU -14 · 47.5 · final 20–13
 ISU -14 · 47.5 Up 2 45.5 → 47.5 L U 20–13
CCU @ SC
2025 · Week 13
SC -24.5 · 50.5 · final 7–51
 SC -24.5 · 50.5 Down 3 53.5 → 50.5 L O 7–51
MRSH @ APP
2025 · Week 13
MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 · final 24–26
 MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 Up 3 54.5 → 57.5 L U 24–26
MER @ AUB
2025 · Week 13
AUB -26.5 · 49.5 · final 17–62
 AUB -26.5 · 49.5 Down 2 51.5 → 49.5 L O 17–62
ODU @ GASO
2025 · Week 13
ODU -10.5 · 62.5 · final 45–10
 ODU -10.5 · 62.5 Down 1 63.5 → 62.5 W U 45–10
CLT @ UGA
2025 · Week 13
UGA -42.5 · 53.5 · final 3–35
 UGA -42.5 · 53.5 Down 2 55.5 → 53.5 W U 3–35
MIA @ VT
2025 · Week 13
MIA -17.5 · 48.5 · final 34–17
 MIA -17.5 · 48.5 Down 1 49.5 → 48.5 L O 34–17
UCLA @ OSU
2025 · Week 12
OSU -32.5 · 46.5 · final 10–48
 OSU -32.5 · 46.5 Down 2 48.5 → 46.5 L O 10–48
NMSU @ TENN
2025 · Week 12
TENN -41.5 · 60.5 · final 9–42
 TENN -41.5 · 60.5 Down 1 61.5 → 60.5 W U 9–42
UCF @ TTU
2025 · Week 12
TTU -24.5 · 48.5 · final 9–48
 TTU -24.5 · 48.5 Up 1 47.5 → 48.5 W O 9–48
PSU @ MSU
2025 · Week 12
PSU -6.5 · 49.5 · final 28–10
 PSU -6.5 · 49.5 Up 1 48.5 → 49.5 L U 28–10
MD @ ILL
2025 · Week 12
ILL -15.5 · 51.5 · final 6–24
 ILL -15.5 · 51.5 Down 3 54.5 → 51.5 W U 6–24
MTSU @ WKU
2025 · Week 12
WKU -13.5 · 51.5 · final 26–42
 WKU -13.5 · 51.5 Down 5 56.5 → 51.5 L O 26–42
Final score is away–home. Result is how the signal’s side finished: W won, L lost, P push. Sorting and the result filter cover every game, not only the ones shown.Show 181
Total move is the closing total against the opening total; a total that moved up went with the move if the game went Over, and one that moved down if it stayed Under. Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.