Does the side the model likes against the spread cover?
FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.
Model side covered
50.2%
of the model’s spread picks covered
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ35%break-even 52.4%70%
139–138–5 record (pushes last)
282 games
44–56% 95% range
277 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)
By season
Is it the same every year?
| Season | Games | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 73 | 37–33–3 | 52.9% |
| 2024 | 95 | 44–51 | 46.3% |
| 2025 | 89 | 44–44–1 | 50.0% |
| 2026 so far | 25 | 14–10–1 | 58.3% |
By spread edge size
Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
| Edge size | Games | Record | Hit rate | And up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5 | 87 | 44–42–1 | 51.2% | 50.6% 261 |
| 2–3.5 | 74 | 34–39–1 | 46.6% | 50.3% 175 |
| 4–5.5 | 54 | 32–22 | 59.3% | 52.9% 102 |
| 6+ | 50 | 22–26–2 | 45.8% | 45.8% 48 |
282 games
Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
| Game | Closing | Spread edge | Result | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 7 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10 |
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 | HAW +14.5 underdog · edge 1 | W | 21–10 |
2026 · Week 7 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31 |
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 | MSST +17.5 underdog · edge 6 | L | 0–31 |
2026 · Week 7 PITT -6.5 · 42.5 · final 21–27 |
PITT -6.5 · 42.5 | PITT -6.5 favorite · edge 6 | L | 21–27 |
2026 · Week 7 PUR -3 · 50.5 · final 38–26 |
PUR -3 · 50.5 | WASH +3 underdog · edge 2 | W | 38–26 |
2026 · Week 7 MEM -6.5 · 55.5 · final 17–31 |
MEM -6.5 · 55.5 | TULN +6.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | W | 17–31 |
2026 · Week 6 LSU -9.5 · 50.5 · final 34–35 |
LSU -9.5 · 50.5 | LSU -9.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | L | 34–35 |
2026 · Week 6 MISS -9.5 · 54.5 · final 52–17 |
MISS -9.5 · 54.5 | VAN +9.5 underdog · edge 4 | L | 52–17 |
2026 · Week 6 KSU -2.5 · 55.5 · final 35–16 |
KSU -2.5 · 55.5 | HOU +2.5 underdog · edge 2 | W | 35–16 |
2026 · Week 6 ECU -10 · 46.5 · final 12–28 |
ECU -10 · 46.5 | ECU -10 favorite · edge 4 | W | 12–28 |
2026 · Week 6 APP -8.5 · 45.5 · final 10–3 |
APP -8.5 · 45.5 | APP -8.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | L | 10–3 |
2026 · Week 6 IU -9.5 · 48.5 · final 20–17 |
IU -9.5 · 48.5 | NEB +9.5 underdog · edge 3.5 | W | 20–17 |
2026 · Week 5 ARIZ -7 · 56.5 · final 7–34 |
ARIZ -7 · 56.5 | ARIZ -7 favorite · edge 3 | W | 7–34 |
2026 · Week 5 ISU -3 · 53.5 · final 42–45 |
ISU -3 · 53.5 | ISU -3 favorite · edge 7 | P | 42–45 |
2026 · Week 5 MICH -6.5 · 41.5 · final 14–20 |
MICH -6.5 · 41.5 | MINN +6.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | W | 14–20 |
2026 · Week 4 UVA -19.5 · 52.5 · final 3–42 |
UVA -19.5 · 52.5 | UVA -19.5 favorite · edge 1 | W | 3–42 |
2026 · Week 4 JMU -7 · 44.5 · final 46–20 |
JMU -7 · 44.5 | ODU +7 underdog · edge 2.5 | L | 46–20 |
2026 · Week 4 UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 · final 54–3 |
UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 | MD +2.5 underdog · edge 5.5 | L | 54–3 |
2026 · Week 4 VT -14.5 · 45.5 · final 21–14 |
VT -14.5 · 45.5 | BC +14.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | W | 21–14 |
 HOW @  RUTG2026 · Week 4 RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 · final 7–58 |
RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 | HOW +42.5 underdog · edge 14 | L | 7–58 |
2026 · Week 4 LIB -2.5 · 50.5 · final 34–17 |
LIB -2.5 · 50.5 | LIB -2.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | W | 34–17 |
2026 · Week 2 FRES -17.5 · 43.5 · final 3–49 |
FRES -17.5 · 43.5 | SAC +17.5 underdog · edge 5 | L | 3–49 |
 MTST @  NEV2026 · Week 2 MTST -4.5 · 51.5 · final 20–7 |
MTST -4.5 · 51.5 | NEV +4.5 underdog · edge 11.5 | L | 20–7 |
 UNCO @  WYO2026 · Week 2 WYO -23.5 · 44.5 · final 13–21 |
WYO -23.5 · 44.5 | UNCO +23.5 underdog · edge 8 | W | 13–21 |
2026 · Week 1 WKU -1.5 · 51.5 · final 14–49 |
WKU -1.5 · 51.5 | NEV +1.5 underdog · edge 1 | W | 14–49 |
2026 · Week 1 UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 · final 21–6 |
UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 | UNLV -2.5 favorite · edge 0 | W | 21–6 |
2025 · Postseason GASO -10 · 58.5 · final 29–10 |
GASO -10 · 58.5 | APP +10 underdog · edge 9.5 | L | 29–10 |
2025 · Postseason HAW -1.5 · 50.5 · final 31–35 |
HAW -1.5 · 50.5 | CAL +1.5 underdog · edge 1 | L | 31–35 |
2025 · Postseason LOU -11.5 · 44.5 · final 22–27 |
LOU -11.5 · 44.5 | TOL +11.5 underdog · edge 5 | W | 22–27 |
2025 · Postseason MISS -16.5 · 57.5 · final 10–41 |
MISS -16.5 · 57.5 | MISS -16.5 favorite · edge 2.5 | W | 10–41 |
2025 · Postseason OU -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–24 |
OU -2.5 · 42.5 | ALA +2.5 underdog · edge 4 | W | 34–24 |
2025 · Postseason WMU -3.5 · 47.5 · final 6–41 |
WMU -3.5 · 47.5 | WMU -3.5 favorite · edge 0 | W | 6–41 |
2025 · Week 14 ILL -7 · 43.5 · final 13–20 |
ILL -7 · 43.5 | ILL -7 favorite · edge 2 | P | 13–20 |
2025 · Week 14 OU -12.5 · 36.5 · final 13–17 |
OU -12.5 · 36.5 | LSU +12.5 underdog · edge 3.5 | W | 13–17 |
2025 · Week 14 UL -10.5 · 47.5 · final 27–30 |
UL -10.5 · 47.5 | UL -10.5 favorite · edge 1 | L | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 14 TXST -9.5 · 62.5 · final 26–49 |
TXST -9.5 · 62.5 | TXST -9.5 favorite · edge 1 | W | 26–49 |
2025 · Week 14 TLSA -9.5 · 56.5 · final 31–24 |
TLSA -9.5 · 56.5 | UAB +9.5 underdog · edge 4.5 | W | 31–24 |
2025 · Week 14 ARST -1.5 · 54.5 · final 30–29 |
ARST -1.5 · 54.5 | APP +1.5 underdog · edge 6 | W | 30–29 |
2025 · Week 14 MOST -2.5 · 45.5 · final 42–30 |
MOST -2.5 · 45.5 | LT +2.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 42–30 |
2025 · Week 14 KSU -16.5 · 49.5 · final 14–24 |
KSU -16.5 · 49.5 | COLO +16.5 underdog · edge 3 | W | 14–24 |
2025 · Week 14 ISU -14 · 47.5 · final 20–13 |
ISU -14 · 47.5 | ISU -14 favorite · edge 7 | L | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 14 ECU -6.5 · 66.5 · final 42–3 |
ECU -6.5 · 66.5 | ECU -6.5 favorite · edge 4 | W | 42–3 |
2025 · Week 14 OHIO -7 · 44.5 · final 31–26 |
OHIO -7 · 44.5 | OHIO -7 favorite · edge 2 | L | 31–26 |
2025 · Week 13 SC -24.5 · 50.5 · final 7–51 |
SC -24.5 · 50.5 | CCU +24.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | L | 7–51 |
2025 · Week 13 TROY -10.5 · 51.5 · final 19–31 |
TROY -10.5 · 51.5 | TROY -10.5 favorite · edge 1 | W | 19–31 |
2025 · Week 13 MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 · final 24–26 |
MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 | MRSH -3.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | L | 24–26 |
 MER @  AUB2025 · Week 13 AUB -26.5 · 49.5 · final 17–62 |
AUB -26.5 · 49.5 | AUB -26.5 favorite · edge 13 | W | 17–62 |
2025 · Week 13 ODU -10.5 · 62.5 · final 45–10 |
ODU -10.5 · 62.5 | ODU -10.5 favorite · edge 2.5 | W | 45–10 |
2025 · Week 13 UGA -42.5 · 53.5 · final 3–35 |
UGA -42.5 · 53.5 | UGA -42.5 favorite · edge 8.5 | L | 3–35 |
2025 · Week 13 MIA -17.5 · 48.5 · final 34–17 |
MIA -17.5 · 48.5 | MIA -17.5 favorite · edge 2 | L | 34–17 |
2025 · Week 12 OSU -32.5 · 46.5 · final 10–48 |
OSU -32.5 · 46.5 | OSU -32.5 favorite · edge 1.5 | W | 10–48 |
UNM
HAW
MSST
LSU
PITT
BC
WASH
PUR
MEM
TULN
UK
MISS
VAN
HOU
KSU
RICE
ECU
ODU
APP
IU
NEB
CIN
ARIZ
WVU
ISU
MICH
MINN
DEL
UVA
JMU
UCLA
MD
VT
LIB
CCU
SAC
FRES
WKU
UNLV
GASO
CAL
TOL
LOU
ALA
OU
KENN
WMU
NU
ILL
ULM
UL
USA
TXST
UAB
TLSA
ARST
LT
MOST
COLO
OKST
FAU
OHIO
BUFF
SC
GAST
TROY
MRSH
CLT
UGA
MIA
OSUSpread edge is the model’s line minus the closing spread, in points; the side is the team the model likes against the number (a Favorite or an Underdog). Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.