Does the team the spread moved toward cover?
FBS games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.
Moved-toward team covered
54.9%
of the teams the line moved toward covered
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ35%break-even 52.4%70%
95–78–1 record (pushes last)
174 games
47–62% 95% range
173 decided games · 2023–2026 · windy (15+ mph)
By season
Is it the same every year?
| Season | Games | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 83 | 45–38 | 54.2% |
| 2025 | 68 | 36–32 | 52.9% |
| 2026 so far | 23 | 14–8–1 | 63.6% |
By line move size
Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
| Edge size | Games | Record | Hit rate | And up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1 | 88 | 44–44 | 50.0% | 54.9% 173 |
| 1.5–2.5 | 46 | 26–19–1 | 57.8% | 60.0% 85 |
| 3–4.5 | 34 | 21–13 | 61.8% | 62.5% 40 |
| 5+ | 6 | 4–2 | 66.7% | 66.7% 6 |
174 games
Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
| Game | Closing | Line move | Result | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 7 UNM -14.5 · 46.5 · final 21–10 |
UNM -14.5 · 46.5 | HAW +15.5 → +14.5 moved 1 | W | 21–10 |
2026 · Week 7 LSU -17.5 · 56.5 · final 0–31 |
LSU -17.5 · 56.5 | LSU -12.5 → -17.5 moved 5 | W | 0–31 |
2026 · Week 7 PITT -6.5 · 42.5 · final 21–27 |
PITT -6.5 · 42.5 | BC +7 → +6.5 moved 0.5 | W | 21–27 |
2026 · Week 7 PUR -3 · 50.5 · final 38–26 |
PUR -3 · 50.5 | PUR -2.5 → -3 moved 0.5 | L | 38–26 |
2026 · Week 7 MEM -6.5 · 55.5 · final 17–31 |
MEM -6.5 · 55.5 | TULN +7 → +6.5 moved 0.5 | W | 17–31 |
2026 · Week 6 LSU -9.5 · 50.5 · final 34–35 |
LSU -9.5 · 50.5 | UK +10.5 → +9.5 moved 1 | W | 34–35 |
2026 · Week 6 MISS -9.5 · 54.5 · final 52–17 |
MISS -9.5 · 54.5 | VAN +10.5 → +9.5 moved 1 | L | 52–17 |
2026 · Week 6 DUKE -4.5 · 45.5 · final 25–28 |
DUKE -4.5 · 45.5 | GT +6.5 → +4.5 moved 2 | W | 25–28 |
2026 · Week 6 ECU -10 · 46.5 · final 12–28 |
ECU -10 · 46.5 | ECU -9.5 → -10 moved 0.5 | W | 12–28 |
2026 · Week 6 APP -8.5 · 45.5 · final 10–3 |
APP -8.5 · 45.5 | APP -5.5 → -8.5 moved 3 | L | 10–3 |
2026 · Week 5 ARIZ -7 · 56.5 · final 7–34 |
ARIZ -7 · 56.5 | CIN +8.5 → +7 moved 1.5 | L | 7–34 |
2026 · Week 5 ISU -3 · 53.5 · final 42–45 |
ISU -3 · 53.5 | ISU -1.5 → -3 moved 1.5 | P | 42–45 |
2026 · Week 5 MICH -6.5 · 41.5 · final 14–20 |
MICH -6.5 · 41.5 | MINN +8.5 → +6.5 moved 2 | W | 14–20 |
2026 · Week 4 UVA -19.5 · 52.5 · final 3–42 |
UVA -19.5 · 52.5 | DEL +20.5 → +19.5 moved 1 | L | 3–42 |
2026 · Week 4 JMU -7 · 44.5 · final 46–20 |
JMU -7 · 44.5 | JMU -4.5 → -7 moved 2.5 | W | 46–20 |
2026 · Week 4 UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 · final 54–3 |
UCLA -2.5 · 55.5 | UCLA -1.5 → -2.5 moved 1 | W | 54–3 |
2026 · Week 4 VT -14.5 · 45.5 · final 21–14 |
VT -14.5 · 45.5 | VT -14 → -14.5 moved 0.5 | L | 21–14 |
 HOW @  RUTG2026 · Week 4 RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 · final 7–58 |
RUTG -42.5 · 57.5 | RUTG -41.5 → -42.5 moved 1 | W | 7–58 |
2026 · Week 4 LIB -2.5 · 50.5 · final 34–17 |
LIB -2.5 · 50.5 | LIB +1.5 → -2.5 moved 4 | W | 34–17 |
2026 · Week 2 FRES -17.5 · 43.5 · final 3–49 |
FRES -17.5 · 43.5 | SAC +18.5 → +17.5 moved 1 | L | 3–49 |
 UNCO @  WYO2026 · Week 2 WYO -23.5 · 44.5 · final 13–21 |
WYO -23.5 · 44.5 | WYO -22.5 → -23.5 moved 1 | L | 13–21 |
2026 · Week 1 WKU -1.5 · 51.5 · final 14–49 |
WKU -1.5 · 51.5 | NEV +4.5 → +1.5 moved 3 | W | 14–49 |
2026 · Week 1 UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 · final 21–6 |
UNLV -2.5 · 55.5 | UNLV -1.5 → -2.5 moved 1 | W | 21–6 |
2025 · Postseason GASO -10 · 58.5 · final 29–10 |
GASO -10 · 58.5 | GASO -2.5 → -10 moved 7.5 | W | 29–10 |
2025 · Postseason HAW -1.5 · 50.5 · final 31–35 |
HAW -1.5 · 50.5 | HAW +1.5 → -1.5 moved 3 | W | 31–35 |
2025 · Postseason LOU -11.5 · 44.5 · final 22–27 |
LOU -11.5 · 44.5 | LOU -9.5 → -11.5 moved 2 | L | 22–27 |
2025 · Postseason OU -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–24 |
OU -2.5 · 42.5 | OU +1.5 → -2.5 moved 4 | L | 34–24 |
2025 · Postseason WMU -3.5 · 47.5 · final 6–41 |
WMU -3.5 · 47.5 | WMU -3 → -3.5 moved 0.5 | W | 6–41 |
2025 · Week 14 OU -12.5 · 36.5 · final 13–17 |
OU -12.5 · 36.5 | OU -10 → -12.5 moved 2.5 | L | 13–17 |
2025 · Week 14 UL -10.5 · 47.5 · final 27–30 |
UL -10.5 · 47.5 | ULM +13.5 → +10.5 moved 3 | W | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 14 ARST -1.5 · 54.5 · final 30–29 |
ARST -1.5 · 54.5 | ARST +1.5 → -1.5 moved 3 | L | 30–29 |
2025 · Week 14 MOST -2.5 · 45.5 · final 42–30 |
MOST -2.5 · 45.5 | LT +3.5 → +2.5 moved 1 | W | 42–30 |
2025 · Week 14 KSU -16.5 · 49.5 · final 14–24 |
KSU -16.5 · 49.5 | COLO +17.5 → +16.5 moved 1 | W | 14–24 |
2025 · Week 14 ISU -14 · 47.5 · final 20–13 |
ISU -14 · 47.5 | ISU -13.5 → -14 moved 0.5 | L | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 13 SC -24.5 · 50.5 · final 7–51 |
SC -24.5 · 50.5 | SC -23.5 → -24.5 moved 1 | W | 7–51 |
2025 · Week 13 TROY -10.5 · 51.5 · final 19–31 |
TROY -10.5 · 51.5 | GAST +11.5 → +10.5 moved 1 | L | 19–31 |
2025 · Week 13 MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 · final 24–26 |
MRSH -3.5 · 57.5 | APP +4.5 → +3.5 moved 1 | W | 24–26 |
 MER @  AUB2025 · Week 13 AUB -26.5 · 49.5 · final 17–62 |
AUB -26.5 · 49.5 | MER +28 → +26.5 moved 1.5 | L | 17–62 |
2025 · Week 13 ODU -10.5 · 62.5 · final 45–10 |
ODU -10.5 · 62.5 | ODU -9.5 → -10.5 moved 1 | W | 45–10 |
2025 · Week 13 UGA -42.5 · 53.5 · final 3–35 |
UGA -42.5 · 53.5 | CLT +44.5 → +42.5 moved 2 | W | 3–35 |
2025 · Week 13 MIA -17.5 · 48.5 · final 34–17 |
MIA -17.5 · 48.5 | MIA -16.5 → -17.5 moved 1 | L | 34–17 |
2025 · Week 12 OSU -32.5 · 46.5 · final 10–48 |
OSU -32.5 · 46.5 | OSU -30.5 → -32.5 moved 2 | W | 10–48 |
2025 · Week 12 TENN -41.5 · 60.5 · final 9–42 |
TENN -41.5 · 60.5 | TENN -38.5 → -41.5 moved 3 | L | 9–42 |
2025 · Week 12 TTU -24.5 · 48.5 · final 9–48 |
TTU -24.5 · 48.5 | TTU -23.5 → -24.5 moved 1 | W | 9–48 |
2025 · Week 12 PSU -6.5 · 49.5 · final 28–10 |
PSU -6.5 · 49.5 | MSU +7.5 → +6.5 moved 1 | L | 28–10 |
2025 · Week 12 ILL -15.5 · 51.5 · final 6–24 |
ILL -15.5 · 51.5 | ILL -14.5 → -15.5 moved 1 | W | 6–24 |
 TNTC @  UK2025 · Week 12 UK -22.5 · 52.5 · final 10–42 |
UK -22.5 · 52.5 | UK -22 → -22.5 moved 0.5 | W | 10–42 |
2025 · Week 12 IU -27.5 · 43.5 · final 7–31 |
IU -27.5 · 43.5 | WIS +30.5 → +27.5 moved 3 | W | 7–31 |
2025 · Week 12 TA&M -16.5 · 49.5 · final 30–31 |
TA&M -16.5 · 49.5 | SC +17.5 → +16.5 moved 1 | W | 30–31 |
2025 · Week 12 CIN -6.5 · 56.5 · final 30–24 |
CIN -6.5 · 56.5 | CIN -5.5 → -6.5 moved 1 | L | 30–24 |
UNM
HAW
MSST
LSU
PITT
BC
WASH
PUR
MEM
TULN
MISS
VAN
DUKE
GT
RICE
ECU
ODU
APP
CIN
ARIZ
WVU
ISU
MICH
MINN
DEL
UVA
JMU
UCLA
MD
VT
LIB
CCU
SAC
FRES
WKU
NEV
UNLV
GASO
CAL
TOL
LOU
ALA
OU
KENN
WMU
ULM
UL
ARST
LT
MOST
COLO
KSU
OKST
SC
GAST
TROY
MRSH
CLT
UGA
MIA
OSU
NMSU
TENN
UCF
TTU
PSU
MSU
ILL
WIS
IU
TA&MLine move is the closing spread against the opening spread; the side is the team the line moved toward (so the price on it got worse). Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.