LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest · NIT
Closing line
WAKE -9.5✓ WAKE covered by 0.5
WAKE -9.5✓ WAKE covered by 0.5Closing total148.5Over by 5.5
 NAVY | This season | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| 24-7 | Record | 17-16 |
| 21-10 | ATS | 15-18 |
| 14-17 | O/U | 18-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NAVY 67–79 WAKE · ✓ WAKE (85%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 34 | 38 | 72 |
| WAKE | 38 | 44 | 82 |
1st half: NAVY 34, WAKE 38 (WAKE by 4). The model had WAKE by 7.1 and a total of 68.6 (actual 72).
Team stats
| NAVY | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-65 43% | Field goals | 27-56 48% |
| 7-22 32% | 3-pointers | 8-30 27% |
| 9-13 69% | Free throws | 20-21 95% |
| 31 15 off | Rebounds | 36 14 off |
| 12 | Assists | 17 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| NAVY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Benigni G | 39 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 7-12 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Kehoe C | 35 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Pennick G | 34 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 6-11 | 4-8 |
| Jinwoo Kim G | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-6 |
| Mike Woods F | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donovan Draper F | 28 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3-14 | 1-2 |
| Cam Cole G | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| David Burnett G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Cooper Jackson F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Julian Gabbidon G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cam Cormany G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Sam Krist G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matt Gaffney, Colin Pollock, Steven McLeod, Jerry Ashley Jr., C.J. Kearns, Jordan McConnell, Luke Morgan, Owen Gray, Tobi Raji, Davyn de Jongh, Julien King, Nyles Howard and 1 more
| WAKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juke Harris G | 38 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 7-13 | 3-8 |
| Tre'Von Spillers F | 36 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-2 |
| Nate Calmese G | 32 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-8 |
| Omaha Biliew F | 25 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Mekhi Mason G | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Myles Colvin G | 27 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-7 |
| Cooper Schwieger F | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Carr G | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Sebastian Akins G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Owen Kmety F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Will Underwood G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Vincent Ricchiuti F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dimitrije Kovacevic, Anson Beard Jr., Jaylen Cross, Marqus Marion
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketWAKE -9.5
ModelWAKE -12.1
Model edgeWAKE +2.6
W WAKE covered
Total
Market148.5
Model146.8
Model edgeUnder 1.7
L Over
Projected score
NAVY 67.3 · WAKE 79.4
NAVY 72 · WAKE 82
Win probability
WAKE 85%
1st half
Spread
WAKE -7.1
WAKE -4.0
Total
68.6
72 points
Projected score
NAVY 30.8 · WAKE 37.9
NAVY 34 · WAKE 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWAKE -11.5
2 → NAVY
CloseWAKE -9.5
2 pts toward NAVY
Total
Open147.5
▲ 1
Close148.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NAVY +440 · WAKE -600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WAKE -11.5 · closed WAKE -9.5 · moved 2 toward NAVYmodel WAKE -12
model WAKE -12
Opened 147.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 1 upmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 9-1 90% | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% |
| WAKE | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Navy
31 games played
Straight up
24-7
77% wins
Against the spread
21-10
68% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-17
45% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ PRES | W 76-55 | -3.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 7 | vs YALE | L 68-97 | +5.5 | L −23.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ PSU | L 71-80 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 18 | @ UNC | L 61-73 | +26.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 22 | vs NJIT | W 86-70 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 26 | vs GWEB | W 84-51 | -10.5 | W +22.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 28 | @ UNCW | L 57-87 | +8.5 | L −21.5 | 138.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 29 | vs SELA | L 65-69 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 136.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 3 | @ DSU | W 66-59 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 132.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 7 | vs AF | W 61-56 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 133.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 19 | vs COPP | W 88-55 | -20.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 31 | vs BU | W 82-77 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 137.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ HC | W 65-58 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 7 | vs BUCK | W 76-55 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vs LAF | W 76-50 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 12 | @ AMER | L 51-65 | -2.5 | L −16.5 | 139.5 | U 116 |
| Jan 17 | @ LEH | W 82-79 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 137.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 21 | vsHC | W 85-68 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 24 | vs ARMY | W 84-56 | -10.5 | W +17.5 | 143.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 28 | @BU | W 58-50 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 138.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 31 | vs L-MD | W 87-71 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | @LAF | W 65-50 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | U 115 |
| Feb 7 | vsAMER | W 82-73 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 134.5 | O 155 |
| Feb 9 | @BUCK | W 76-60 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Feb 14 | @ COLG | W 84-80 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 18 | vsLEH | W 72-49 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 139.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 21 | @ARMY | W 81-63 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 25 | @L-MD | W 78-51 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 147.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 28 | vsCOLG | W 85-69 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 141.5 | O 154 |
| Mar 5 | vsBUCK | W 74-69 | -15.5 | L −10.5 | 133.5 | O 143 |
| Mar 8 | vsBU | L 72-73 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 136.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@PRES
PRESW 76-55
+17.5
7
vsYALE
YALEL 68-97
−23.5
11
@PSU
PSUL 71-80
+2.5
18
@UNC
UNCL 61-73
+14.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 86-70
−1.5
26
vsGWEB
GWEBW 84-51
+22.5
28
@UNCW
UNCWL 57-87
−21.5
29
vsSELA
SELAL 65-69
−7.5
3
@DSU
DSUW 66-59
−8.5
7
vsAF
AFW 61-56
−4.5
19
vsCOPP
COPPW 88-55
+12.5
31
vsBU
BUW 82-77
+0.5
3
@HC
HCW 65-58
+1.5
7
vsBUCK
BUCKW 76-55
+12.5
10
vsLAF
LAFW 76-50
+17.5
12
@AMER
AMERL 51-65
−16.5
17
@LEH
LEHW 82-79
−0.5
21
vsHC
HCW 85-68
+5.5
24
vsARMY
ARMYW 84-56
+17.5
28
@BU
BUW 58-50
+6.5
31
vsL-MD
L-MDW 87-71
+6.5
4
@LAF
LAFW 65-50
+11.5
7
vsAMER
AMERW 82-73
+4.5
9
@BUCK
BUCKW 76-60
+9.5
14
@COLG
COLGW 84-80
+5.5
18
vsLEH
LEHW 72-49
+13.5
21
@ARMY
ARMYW 81-63
+9.5
25
@L-MD
L-MDW 78-51
+20.5
28
vsCOLG
COLGW 85-69
+9.5
5
vsBUCK
BUCKW 74-69
−10.5
8
vsBU
BUL 72-73
−7.5
covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PRES
PRESW 76-55
−10.5
7
vsYALE
YALEL 68-97
+17.5
11
@PSU
PSUL 71-80
−4.5
18
@UNC
UNCL 61-73
−26.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 86-70
+15.5
26
vsGWEB
GWEBW 84-51
−18.5
28
@UNCW
UNCWL 57-87
+5.5
29
vsSELA
SELAL 65-69
−2.5
3
@DSU
DSUW 66-59
−7.5
7
vsAF
AFW 61-56
−16.5
19
vsCOPP
COPPW 88-55
−2.5
31
vsBU
BUW 82-77
+21.5
3
@HC
HCW 65-58
−14.5
7
vsBUCK
BUCKW 76-55
−6.5
10
vsLAF
LAFW 76-50
−15.5
12
@AMER
AMERL 51-65
−23.5
17
@LEH
LEHW 82-79
+23.5
21
vsHC
HCW 85-68
+18.5
24
vsARMY
ARMYW 84-56
−3.5
28
@BU
BUW 58-50
−30.5
31
vsL-MD
L-MDW 87-71
+14.5
4
@LAF
LAFW 65-50
−24.5
7
vsAMER
AMERW 82-73
+20.5
9
@BUCK
BUCKW 76-60
+0.5
14
@COLG
COLGW 84-80
+24.5
18
vsLEH
LEHW 72-49
−18.5
21
@ARMY
ARMYW 81-63
+4.5
25
@L-MD
L-MDW 78-51
−18.5
28
vsCOLG
COLGW 85-69
+12.5
5
vsBUCK
BUCKW 74-69
+9.5
8
vsBU
BUL 72-73
+8.5
over 14under 17avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wake Forest
33 games played
Straight up
17-16
52% wins
Against the spread
15-18
45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-15
55% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsAMER | W 88-74 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MORE | W 81-65 | -22.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | vs MICH | L 84-85 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs UML | W 109-75 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 20 | vs TTU | L 83-84 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs MEM | W 69-68 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAM | W 99-51 | -17.5 | W +30.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 28 | vs NE | W 86-73 | -17.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs OU | L 68-86 | -4.5 | L −22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs WVU | W 75-66 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs QUC | W 111-73 | -18.5 | W +19.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 17 | vs LONG | W 71-68 | -24.5 | L −21.5 | 163.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs VAN | L 67-98 | +5.5 | L −25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | @ NCSU | L 57-70 | +10.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs VT | W 81-78 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIA | L 77-81 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | @UNC | L 84-87 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | @ FSU | W 69-68 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | vs SMU | L 79-91 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 24 | @ DUKE | L 69-90 | +19.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 27 | @ PITT | L 76-80 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | vsNCSU | L 78-96 | +5.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 7 | vs LOU | L 80-88 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 11 | @ GT | W 83-67 | -3.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 14 | vs STAN | W 68-63 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 18 | vs CLEM | W 85-77 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 21 | @VT | L 63-82 | +3.5 | L −15.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 25 | @ BC | L 67-68 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | vs SYR | W 88-83 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Mar 3 | @ UVA | L 70-75 | +14.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Mar 7 | vs CAL | W 80-73 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Mar 10 | vsVT | W 95-89 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | O 184 |
| Mar 11 | vsCLEM | L 62-71 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
−5.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+14.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+3.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+8.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−1.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
+30.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
−4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−22.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
+11.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+19.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−21.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
−25.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−2.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
−2.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
−5.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+7.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−0.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
−13.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
−1.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
−2.5
31
vsNCSU
NCSUL 78-96
−12.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 80-88
+1.5
11
@GT
GTW 83-67
+12.5
14
vsSTAN
STANW 68-63
+0.5
18
vsCLEM
CLEMW 85-77
+12.5
21
@VT
VTL 63-82
−15.5
25
@BC
BCL 67-68
−4.5
28
vsSYR
SYRW 88-83
+1.5
3
@UVA
UVAL 70-75
+9.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 80-73
+1.5
10
vsVT
VTW 95-89
+4.5
11
vsCLEM
CLEML 62-71
−3.5
covered 15didn’t cover 18avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
+22.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+0.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−23.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
−9.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
+4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−5.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
−2.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+18.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−24.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
+0.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−32.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
+5.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
+0.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+16.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−31.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
+12.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
+5.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
+5.5
31
vsNCSU
NCSUL 78-96
+17.5
7
vsLOU
LOUL 80-88
+5.5
11
@GT
GTW 83-67
−8.5
14
vsSTAN
STANW 68-63
−19.5
18
vsCLEM
CLEMW 85-77
+21.5
21
@VT
VTL 63-82
−5.5
25
@BC
BCL 67-68
−10.5
28
vsSYR
SYRW 88-83
+18.5
3
@UVA
UVAL 70-75
−5.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 80-73
−1.5
10
vsVT
VTW 95-89
+33.5
11
vsCLEM
CLEML 62-71
−10.5
over 18under 15avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Navy
24-7 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Boston U72–73
- Wvs Bucknell74–69
- Wvs Colgate85–69
- W@ Loyola MD78–51
- W@ Army81–63
A week or more of rest.
Wake Forest
17-16 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Clemson62–71
- Wvs Virginia Tech95–89
- Wvs California80–73
- L@ Virginia70–75
- Wvs Syracuse88–83
A week or more of rest.