John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -13.5✓ SYR covered by 0.5
UVA -13.5✓ SYR covered by 0.5Closing total147.5Under by 16.5
 SYR | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 13-10 | Record | 19-3 |
| 11-12 | ATS | 13-9 |
| 13-10 | O/U | 9-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SYR 71–81 UVA · ✓ UVA (80%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 35 | 24 | 59 |
| UVA | 38 | 34 | 72 |
1st half: SYR 35, UVA 38 (UVA by 3). The model had UVA by 5.7 and a total of 70.9 (actual 73).
Team stats
| SYR | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-51 49% | Field goals | 26-63 41% |
| 3-11 27% | 3-pointers | 10-30 33% |
| 6-7 86% | Free throws | 10-14 71% |
| 28 6 off | Rebounds | 38 17 off |
| 9 | Assists | 18 |
| 4 | Steals | 9 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| SYR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naithan George G | 35 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 8-9 | 0-0 |
| Nate Kingz G | 34 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-6 |
| Donnie Freeman F | 33 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2-11 | 1-3 |
| William Kyle III F | 32 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| J.J. Starling G | 30 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 6-14 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tyler Betsey F | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Akir Souare F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bryce Zephir G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sadiq White Jr. F | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Calvin Russell III, Tiefing Diawara, Luke Fennell, Aaron Womack III, Noah Lobdell, Kiyan Anthony
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thijs De Ridder F | 28 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3-11 | 0-4 |
| Dallin Hall G | 27 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Sam Lewis G | 26 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 5-10 | 4-8 |
| Malik Thomas G | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 24 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 23 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Jacari White G | 22 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Devin Tillis F | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Martin Carrere G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Owen Odom, Carter Lang, Desmond Roberts, Elijah Gertrude, Silas Barksdale
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -13.5
ModelUVA -9.7
Model edgeSYR +3.8
W SYR covered
Total
Market147.5
Model151.6
Model edgeOver 4.1
L Under
Projected score
SYR 70.9 · UVA 80.7
SYR 59 · UVA 72
Win probability
UVA 80%
1st half
Spread
UVA -5.7
UVA -3.0
Total
70.9
73 points
Projected score
SYR 32.6 · UVA 38.3
SYR 35 · UVA 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -12.5
1 → UVA
CloseUVA -13.5
1 pt toward UVA
Total
Open147.5
no move
Close147.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
SYR +800 · UVA -1350
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -12.5 · closed UVA -13.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel UVA -9.5
model UVA -9.5
Opened 147.5 · unchangedmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
SYR 1–4 UVAUVA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · SYR 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | UVA 70 @ SYR 84 | SYR -1.5 | SYR W |
| Dec 2, 2023-24 | SYR 62 @ UVA 84 | UVA -11.5 | UVA W |
| Jan 30, 2022-23 | UVA 67 @ SYR 62 | SYR +5.5 | SYR W |
| Jan 7, 2022-23 | SYR 66 @ UVA 73 | UVA -12.5 | SYR W |
| Jan 1, 2021-22 | UVA 74 @ SYR 69 | SYR -3.5 | UVA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Syracuse
23 games played
Straight up
13-10
57% wins
Against the spread
11-12
48% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-10
57% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BING | W 85-47 | -21.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs DSU | W 83-43 | -26.5 | W +13.5 | 157.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 15 | vs DREX | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 18 | vs MONM | W 78-73 | -21.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 24 | vs HOU | L 74-78 | +14.5 | W +10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs KU | L 60-71 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs ISU | L 64-95 | +10.5 | L −20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs TENN | W 62-60 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 11 | vs JOES | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 13 | vs HOF | L 69-70 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 17 | vs MERC | W 76-62 | -24.5 | L −10.5 | 131.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs NE | W 91-83 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 22 | vs STO | W 77-48 | -22.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vs CLEM | L 61-64 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 6 | @ GT | W 82-72 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 10 | @ PITT | W 83-72 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 13 | vs FSU | W 94-86 | -4.5 | W +3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | @ BC | L 73-81 | -5.5 | L −13.5 | 141.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 21 | vs VT | L 74-76 | -3.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 24 | vs MIA | L 76-85 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 27 | @ NCSU | L 68-88 | +10.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | vs ND | W 86-72 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 2 | @ UNC | L 77-87 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBING
BINGW 85-47
+16.5
8
vsDSU
DSUW 83-43
+13.5
15
vsDREX
DREXW 80-50
+18.5
18
vsMONM
MONMW 78-73
−16.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 74-78
+10.5
25
vsKU
KUL 60-71
−6.5
26
vsISU
ISUL 64-95
−20.5
2
vsTENN
TENNW 62-60
+9.5
11
vsJOES
JOESW 71-63
−3.5
13
vsHOF
HOFL 69-70
−10.5
17
vsMERC
MERCW 76-62
−10.5
20
vsNE
NEW 91-83
−6.5
22
vsSTO
STOW 77-48
+6.5
31
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-64
−1.5
6
@GT
GTW 82-72
+7.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 83-72
+12.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 94-86
+3.5
17
@BC
BCL 73-81
−13.5
21
vsVT
VTL 74-76
−5.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 76-85
−7.5
27
@NCSU
NCSUL 68-88
−9.5
31
vsND
NDW 86-72
+7.5
2
@UNC
UNCL 77-87
+1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 12avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBING
BINGW 85-47
−21.5
8
vsDSU
DSUW 83-43
−31.5
15
vsDREX
DREXW 80-50
−13.5
18
vsMONM
MONMW 78-73
+5.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 74-78
+11.5
25
vsKU
KUL 60-71
−13.5
26
vsISU
ISUL 64-95
+13.5
2
vsTENN
TENNW 62-60
−25.5
11
vsJOES
JOESW 71-63
−12.5
13
vsHOF
HOFL 69-70
−0.5
17
vsMERC
MERCW 76-62
+6.5
20
vsNE
NEW 91-83
+33.5
22
vsSTO
STOW 77-48
−15.5
31
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-64
−15.5
6
@GT
GTW 82-72
+7.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 83-72
+12.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 94-86
+19.5
17
@BC
BCL 73-81
+12.5
21
vsVT
VTL 74-76
−2.5
24
vsMIA
MIAL 76-85
+11.5
27
@NCSU
NCSUL 68-88
+4.5
31
vsND
NDW 86-72
+10.5
2
@UNC
UNCL 77-87
+5.5
over 13under 10avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
22 games played
Straight up
19-3
86% wins
Against the spread
13-9
59% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-13
41% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @ LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vsUNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 3 | vsPITT | W 67-47 | -12.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 114 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
+7.5
covered 13didn’t cover 9avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
3
vsPITT
PITTW 67-47
−28.5
over 9under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Syracuse
13-10 overall · 4-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ North Carolina77–87
- Wvs Notre Dame86–72
- L@ NC State68–88
- Lvs Miami76–85
- Lvs Virginia Tech74–76
5 days since their last game.
Virginia
19-3 overall · 8-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Pitt67–47
- W@ Boston College73–66
- W@ Notre Dame100–97
- Lvs North Carolina80–85
- W@ SMU72–68
4 days since their last game.