LJVM Coliseum · at Wake Forest · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -5.5✓ NCSU covered by 12.5
NCSU -5.5✓ NCSU covered by 12.5Closing total156.5Over by 17.5
| NCSU | This season | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| 15-6 | Record | 11-10 |
| 12-9 | ATS | 7-14 |
| 12-9 | O/U | 13-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCSU 81–77 WAKE · ✓ NCSU (63%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 49 | 47 | 96 |
| WAKE | 31 | 47 | 78 |
1st half: NCSU 49, WAKE 31 (NCSU by 18). The model had NCSU by 2.4 and a total of 73.8 (actual 80).
Team stats
| NCSU | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-61 54% | Field goals | 25-53 47% |
| 16-28 57% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 14-18 78% | Free throws | 21-24 88% |
| 30 7 off | Rebounds | 27 5 off |
| 19 | Assists | 8 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 36 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 8-12 | 6-8 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 28 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Tre Holloman G | 28 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 24 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Darrion Williams F | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 7-12 | 5-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Matt Able G | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 11 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Alyn Breed, Jerry Deng, Colt Langdon, Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins, Scottie Ebube
| WAKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juke Harris G | 40 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 11-25 | 3-10 |
| Myles Colvin G | 32 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Tre'Von Spillers F | 30 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Cooper Schwieger F | 26 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Sebastian Akins G | 18 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Omaha Biliew F | 25 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Isaac Carr G | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Mekhi Mason G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Cross G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anson Beard Jr., Dimitrije Kovacevic, Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti, Marqus Marion, Nate Calmese, Owen Kmety
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNCSU -5.5
ModelNCSU -3.9
Model edgeWAKE +1.6
L NCSU covered
Total
Market156.5
Model157.8
Model edgeOver 1.3
W Over
Projected score
NCSU 80.8 · WAKE 77
NCSU 96 · WAKE 78
Win probability
NCSU 63%
1st half
Spread
NCSU -2.4
NCSU -18.0
Total
73.8
80 points
Projected score
NCSU 38.1 · WAKE 35.7
NCSU 49 · WAKE 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -4.5
1 → NCSU
CloseNCSU -5.5
1 pt toward NCSU
Total
Open154.5
▲ 2
Close156.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NCSU -225 · WAKE +185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -4.5 · closed NCSU -5.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel NCSU -4
model NCSU -4
Opened 154.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 2 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| WAKE | 3-7 30% | 1-9 10% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
NCSU 5–4 WAKENCSU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · NCSU has won the last 2 meetings · NCSU 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025-26 | WAKE 57 @ NCSU 70 | NCSU -10.5 | NCSU W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | WAKE 73 @ NCSU 85 | NCSU +4.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | NCSU 59 @ WAKE 77 | WAKE -5.5 | WAKE W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | NCSU 79 @ WAKE 83 | WAKE -8.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | WAKE 76 @ NCSU 83 | NCSU -1.5 | NCSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC State
21 games played
Straight up
15-6
71% wins
Against the spread
12-9
57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-9
57% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vsWAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs UVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vs GT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @ CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @ PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vs SYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
covered 12didn’t cover 9avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
over 12under 9avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wake Forest
21 games played
Straight up
11-10
52% wins
Against the spread
7-14
33% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-8
62% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AMER | W 88-74 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MORE | W 81-65 | -22.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | vs MICH | L 84-85 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs UML | W 109-75 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 20 | vs TTU | L 83-84 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs MEM | W 69-68 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAM | W 99-51 | -17.5 | W +30.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 28 | vs NE | W 86-73 | -17.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs OU | L 68-86 | -4.5 | L −22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs WVU | W 75-66 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs QUC | W 111-73 | -18.5 | W +19.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 17 | vs LONG | W 71-68 | -24.5 | L −21.5 | 163.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs VAN | L 67-98 | +5.5 | L −25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 31 | @NCSU | L 57-70 | +10.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs VT | W 81-78 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIA | L 77-81 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | @ UNC | L 84-87 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 17 | @FSU | W 69-68 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | vs SMU | L 79-91 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 24 | @ DUKE | L 69-90 | +19.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 27 | @PITT | L 76-80 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
−5.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+14.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+3.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+8.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−1.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
+30.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
−4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−22.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
+11.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+19.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−21.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
−25.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−2.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
−2.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
−5.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+7.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−0.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
−13.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
−1.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
−2.5
covered 7didn’t cover 14avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
+22.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+0.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−23.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
−9.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
+4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−5.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
−2.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+18.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−24.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
+0.5
31
@NCSU
NCSUL 57-70
−32.5
3
vsVT
VTW 81-78
+5.5
7
vsMIA
MIAL 77-81
+0.5
10
@UNC
UNCL 84-87
+16.5
17
@FSU
FSUW 69-68
−31.5
20
vsSMU
SMUL 79-91
+12.5
24
@DUKE
DUKEL 69-90
+5.5
27
@PITT
PITTL 76-80
+5.5
over 13under 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC State
15-6 overall · 6-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse88–68
- W@ Pitt81–72
- W@ Clemson80–76
- Lvs Georgia Tech74–78
- W@ Florida St113–69
4 days since their last game.
Wake Forest
11-10 overall · 2-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Pitt76–80
- L@ Duke69–90
- Lvs SMU79–91
- W@ Florida St69–68
- L@ North Carolina84–87
4 days since their last game.