Tucker Center · at Florida St · Conference game
Closing line
FSU -3.5✓ FSU covered by 4.5
FSU -3.5✓ FSU covered by 4.5Closing total152.5Over by 15.5
 STAN | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 14-7 | Record | 9-12 |
| 11-10 | ATS | 11-10 |
| 8-13 | O/U | 8-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: STAN 76–79 FSU · ✓ FSU (59%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 33 | 47 | 80 |
| FSU | 41 | 47 | 88 |
1st half: STAN 33, FSU 41 (FSU by 8). The model had FSU by 1.4 and a total of 72.7 (actual 74).
Team stats
| STAN | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-67 46% | Field goals | 29-53 55% |
| 12-34 35% | 3-pointers | 7-23 30% |
| 6-9 67% | Free throws | 23-29 79% |
| 33 14 off | Rebounds | 31 6 off |
| 12 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebuka Okorie G | 36 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 9-19 | 3-7 |
| Donavin Young F | 29 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Ryan Agarwal G | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Benny Gealer G | 28 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4-14 | 4-12 |
| Cameron Grant G | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 20 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Thompson F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ethan Kitch, Kristers Skrinda, Myles Jones, Chisom Okpara, Anthony Batson Jr., Evan Stinson, Tallis Toure
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lajae Jones G | 34 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-2 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 32 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 6-13 | 4-11 |
| Robert McCray V G | 30 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 6-7 | 1-1 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 27 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Alex Steen F | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 27 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 16 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| AJ Swinton F | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Cam Miles G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jasen Lopez, Xavier Osceola, Max Garcia-Plata, Alier Maluk, Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFSU -3.5
ModelFSU -2.6
Model edgeSTAN +0.9
L FSU covered
Total
Market152.5
Model155.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
W Over
Projected score
STAN 76.4 · FSU 79
STAN 80 · FSU 88
Win probability
FSU 59%
1st half
Spread
FSU -1.4
FSU -8.0
Total
72.7
74 points
Projected score
STAN 35.6 · FSU 37.1
STAN 33 · FSU 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFSU -2.5
1 → FSU
CloseFSU -3.5
1 pt toward FSU
Total
Open150.5
▲ 2
Close152.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
STAN +140 · FSU -166
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FSU -2.5 · closed FSU -3.5 · moved 1 toward FSUmodel FSU -2.5
model FSU -2.5
Opened 150.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| FSU | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
STAN 2–0 FSUSTAN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · STAN has won the last 2 meetings · STAN 2-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | FSU 71 @ STAN 78 | STAN -4.5 | STAN W |
| Nov 25, 2022-23 | FSU 60 vs STAN 70 | STAN -5.5 | STAN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Stanford
21 games played
Straight up
14-7
67% wins
Against the spread
11-10
52% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-13
38% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs PRST | W 89-79 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs MONT | W 91-68 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTST | W 77-68 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 18 | vs UL | W 93-66 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | vs SEA | L 69-77 | -10.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 27 | vs MINN | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SLU | W 78-77 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs PORT | W 94-72 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNLV | L 74-75 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ SJSU | W 86-82 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTA | W 76-60 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 20 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 27 | vs CSUN | W 88-80 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 30 | vs ND | L 40-47 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | vs LOU | W 80-76 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 7 | @ VT | W 69-68 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 10 | @ UVA | L 55-70 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 14 | vs UNC | W 95-90 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 17 | vs DUKE | L 50-80 | +11.5 | L −18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vs CAL | L 66-78 | -4.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ MIA | L 70-79 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
+1.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
+2.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+2.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−10.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
−4.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
+5.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+11.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
−7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−13.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
+11.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
+4.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−2.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+9.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
24
vsCAL
CALL 66-78
−16.5
28
@MIA
MIAL 70-79
+0.5
covered 11didn’t cover 10avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
27
vsMINN
MINNW 72-68
−2.5
28
vsSLU
SLUW 78-77
−5.5
1
vsPORT
PORTW 94-72
+9.5
7
vsUNLV
UNLVL 74-75
−15.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUW 86-82
+22.5
17
vsUTA
UTAW 76-60
−3.5
20
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−9.5
27
vsCSUN
CSUNW 88-80
+7.5
30
vsND
NDL 40-47
−56.5
2
vsLOU
LOUW 80-76
−1.5
7
@VT
VTW 69-68
−11.5
10
@UVA
UVAL 55-70
−18.5
14
vsUNC
UNCW 95-90
+37.5
17
vsDUKE
DUKEL 50-80
−18.5
24
vsCAL
CALL 66-78
−2.5
28
@MIA
MIAL 70-79
+1.5
over 8under 13avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
21 games played
Straight up
9-12
43% wins
Against the spread
11-10
52% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-13
38% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vsDUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs NCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @ SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @MIA | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SMU | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 28 | vsCAL | W 63-61 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
+12.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
+8.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 10avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
−35.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
−0.5
28
vsCAL
CALW 63-61
−33.5
over 8under 13avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Stanford
14-7 overall · 3-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Miami70–79
- Lvs California66–78
- Lvs Duke50–80
- Wvs North Carolina95–90
- L@ Virginia55–70
3 days since their last game.
Florida St
9-12 overall · 2-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs California63–61
- L@ SMU80–83
- W@ Miami65–63
- Lvs Wake Forest68–69
- L@ Syracuse86–94
3 days since their last game.