Worthen Arena · at Ball State · Conference game
Closing line
BALL -1.5✓ BUF covered by 11.5
BALL -1.5✓ BUF covered by 11.5Closing total141.5Under by 25.5
 BUF | This season | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| 12-10 | Record | 6-15 |
| 13-9 | ATS | 8-13 |
| 13-9 | O/U | 6-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 73–71 BALL · ✓ BUF (55%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 30 | 33 | 63 |
| BALL | 27 | 26 | 53 |
1st half: BUF 30, BALL 27 (BUF by 3). The model had BUF by 1.1 and a total of 67.2 (actual 57).
Team stats
| BUF | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-48 44% | Field goals | 19-54 35% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 15-17 88% | Free throws | 7-9 78% |
| 33 9 off | Rebounds | 30 11 off |
| 11 | Assists | 12 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 6 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 38 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 38 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 4-14 | 2-8 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 37 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Tim Oboh F | 29 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 28 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 4-12 | 3-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kyle Jones G | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Matas Buteliauskas F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Mikhali Pocknett, Aleksa Vlajic, Evan Romano, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Daniel Freitag
| BALL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Jones F | 32 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Armoni Zeigler G | 30 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-2 |
| Elmore James IV G | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Devon Barnes G | 17 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Preston Copeland F | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Davion Hill G | 29 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 6-15 | 1-5 |
| Kayden Fish F | 27 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Juwan Maxey G | 25 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-9 |
| Cam Denson F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Alex Farley, Easton Foster, Kody Clancy, Jai Anthoni Bearden, Zane Doughty, Joey Hart
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBALL -1.5
ModelBUF -1.6
Model edgeBUF +3.0
W BUF covered
Total
Market141.5
Model143.4
Model edgeOver 1.9
L Under
Projected score
BUF 72.5 · BALL 70.9
BUF 63 · BALL 53
Win probability
BUF 55%
1st half
Spread
BUF -1.1
BUF -3.0
Total
67.2
57 points
Projected score
BUF 34.1 · BALL 33.1
BUF 30 · BALL 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -1.5
3 → BALL
CloseBALL -1.5
3 pts toward BALL
Total
Open141.5
no move
Close141.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
BUF +100 · BALL -120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -1.5 · closed BALL -1.5 · moved 3 toward BALLmodel BUF -1.5
model BUF -1.5
Opened 141.5 · unchangedmodel 143.5
model 143.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| BALL | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
BUF 4–3 BALLBUF leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · BUF 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025-26 | BALL 72 @ BUF 85 | BUF -6.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | BUF 66 @ BALL 80 | BALL -9.5 | BALL W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | BALL 89 @ BUF 76 | BUF +2.5 | BALL W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | BALL 87 @ BUF 59 | BUF +1.5 | BALL W |
| Jan 24, 2022-23 | BUF 91 @ BALL 65 | BALL -5.5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
22 games played
Straight up
12-10
55% wins
Against the spread
13-9
59% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vsBALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs AKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vs MASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsOHIO | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsM-OH | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @ USA | L 69-81 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
−14.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
+2.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
−8.5
covered 13didn’t cover 9avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
+21.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
−21.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
+4.5
over 13under 9avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ball State
21 games played
Straight up
6-15
29% wins
Against the spread
8-13
38% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-15
29% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UL | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 11 | @ WIS | L 55-86 | +26.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | vs LR | L 62-68 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 22 | @ INST | L 52-70 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 28 | vs MONM | L 73-80 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 136.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 29 | @ LAF | L 37-55 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs LEM | W 96-85 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 3 | @ EVAN | L 52-64 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 9 | vs SDST | L 64-68 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ CAM | L 64-69 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | vsM-OH | L 77-86 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @BUF | L 72-85 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 6 | vs EMU | L 52-74 | -1.5 | L −23.5 | 137.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 10 | @MASS | L 71-79 | +10.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @AKR | L 77-87 | +20.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 16 | vsOHIO | W 76-71 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | @ CMU | W 68-67 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 24 | vsNIU | W 58-53 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 111 |
| Jan 31 | @ TOL | L 55-73 | +8.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | @BGSU | L 52-77 | +11.5 | L −13.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 7 | @ ULM | W 73-68 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
+6.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−4.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−8.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−10.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
−4.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−19.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+12.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−5.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
+1.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
+3.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−1.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
−6.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−23.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+10.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
+10.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−0.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−0.5
31
@TOL
TOLL 55-73
−9.5
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 52-77
−13.5
7
@ULM
ULMW 73-68
+0.5
covered 8didn’t cover 13avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
−2.5
11
@WIS
WISL 55-86
−15.5
15
vsLR
LRL 62-68
−16.5
22
@INST
INSTL 52-70
−32.5
28
vsMONM
MONML 73-80
+16.5
29
@LAF
LAFL 37-55
−48.5
30
vsLEM
LEMW 96-85
+40.5
3
@EVAN
EVANL 52-64
−20.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTL 64-68
−10.5
14
@CAM
CAML 64-69
−12.5
20
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
+15.5
3
@BUF
BUFL 72-85
+11.5
6
vsEMU
EMUL 52-74
−11.5
10
@MASS
MASSL 71-79
+2.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 77-87
+11.5
16
vsOHIO
OHIOW 76-71
−0.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 68-67
−7.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 58-53
−30.5
31
@TOL
TOLL 55-73
−18.5
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 52-77
−8.5
7
@ULM
ULMW 73-68
−2.5
over 6under 15avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
12-10 overall · 4-7 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ South Alabama69–81
- Lvs Miami OH71–73
- Lvs Ohio83–95
- W@ Bowling Green89–78
- Lvs UMass67–68
4 days since their last game.
Ball State
6-15 overall · 3-7 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe73–68
- L@ Bowling Green52–77
- L@ Toledo55–73
- Wvs N Illinois58–53
- W@ C Michigan68–67
4 days since their last game.