GSU Convocation Center · at Georgia St · Conference game
Closing line
TROY -6.5✓ TROY covered by 4.5
TROY -6.5✓ TROY covered by 4.5Closing total144.5Under by 7.5
| TROY | This season | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| 13-8 | Record | 7-14 |
| 13-8 | ATS | 11-10 |
| 12-9 | O/U | 8-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TROY 79–73 GAST · ✓ TROY (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 28 | 46 | 74 |
| GAST | 28 | 35 | 63 |
1st half: TROY 28, GAST 28 (tied). The model had TROY by 3.6 and a total of 71.1 (actual 56).
Team stats
| TROY | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-66 44% | Field goals | 22-56 39% |
| 8-28 29% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 8-12 67% | Free throws | 13-19 68% |
| 43 16 off | Rebounds | 34 10 off |
| 20 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 38 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 7-12 | 2-4 |
| Victor Valdes F | 33 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 31 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 4-12 | 1-6 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 28 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-12 | 5-10 |
| Theo Seng F | 21 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 21 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Kerrington Kiel F | 15 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Austin Cross G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Javen Colbert, Emmanuel Clarton, Evan Griffin, Corbin Green, Kameryn Mitchell
| GAST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Brown G | 37 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-6 |
| Micah Tucker G | 36 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 7-12 | 0-2 |
| Anthony Enoh F | 32 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Jelani Hamilton G | 30 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2-14 | 1-4 |
| Trey Scott F | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jakai Newton G | 20 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Joah Chappelle F | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Ayouba Berthe G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Chris Jones, Christian Beam, James Cooper, Kwame Tanic, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos, Isaiah Sherrard
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTROY -6.5
ModelTROY -5.9
Model edgeGAST +0.6
L TROY covered
Total
Market144.5
Model151.9
Model edgeOver 7.4
L Under
Projected score
TROY 78.9 · GAST 73
TROY 74 · GAST 63
Win probability
TROY 70%
1st half
Spread
TROY -3.6
tied
Total
71.1
56 points
Projected score
TROY 37.4 · GAST 33.7
TROY 28 · GAST 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -4.5
2 → TROY
CloseTROY -6.5
2 pts toward TROY
Total
Open144.5
no move
Close144.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TROY -278 · GAST +225
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -4.5 · closed TROY -6.5 · moved 2 toward TROYmodel TROY -6
model TROY -6
Opened 144.5 · unchangedmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| GAST | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TROY 4–0 GASTTROY leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · TROY has won the last 4 meetings · TROY 4-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2024-25 | GAST 57 @ TROY 77 | TROY -11.5 | TROY W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | TROY 78 @ GAST 74 | GAST +3.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 12, 2022-23 | TROY 65 @ GAST 53 | GAST +2.5 | TROY W |
| Feb 3, 2021-22 | TROY 67 @ GAST 63 | GAST -7 | TROY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Troy
21 games played
Straight up
13-8
62% wins
Against the spread
13-8
62% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-9
57% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs MRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vs TXST | W 100-80 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs USA | W 59-49 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 7 | @ ARST | L 74-86 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 10 | @ UL | W 90-70 | -9.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | vs USM | W 91-65 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | vsARST | W 99-74 | -3.5 | W +21.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 21 | @ ODU | W 83-77 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 24 | @ GASO | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 29 | vs JMU | L 64-73 | -9.5 | L −18.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | vs APP | L 44-66 | -7.5 | L −29.5 | 137.5 | U 110 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+11.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
+0.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−7.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+10.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+17.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+21.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+0.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+0.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−18.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−29.5
covered 13didn’t cover 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+34.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
−40.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 74-86
−0.5
10
@UL
ULW 90-70
+23.5
14
vsUSM
USMW 91-65
+10.5
17
vsARST
ARSTW 99-74
+7.5
21
@ODU
ODUW 83-77
+7.5
24
@GASO
GASOW 83-78
+1.5
29
vsJMU
JMUL 64-73
−10.5
31
vsAPP
APPL 44-66
−27.5
over 12under 9avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Georgia St
21 games played
Straight up
7-14
33% wins
Against the spread
11-10
52% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-13
38% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ EMU | L 49-71 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 149.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 7 | @ CIN | L 64-74 | +29.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 10 | vs PRES | L 61-63 | -3.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 17 | @ ASU | L 62-75 | +18.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 21 | @ SDST | L 58-105 | +12.5 | L −34.5 | 143.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 25 | vs SAM | L 63-78 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs NMSU | L 58-77 | +12.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ MER | L 67-78 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 6 | @ KENN | L 69-92 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 13 | vs JXST | W 77-73 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 18 | @GASO | L 67-90 | +9.5 | L −13.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 20 | @APP | W 70-63 | +7.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | @MRSH | L 80-84 | +13.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ CCU | W 89-71 | +6.5 | W +24.5 | 148.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | vsAPP | L 50-52 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | U 102 |
| Jan 10 | vsMRSH | W 81-73 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ULM | W 77-57 | -6.5 | W +13.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 22 | vsUSM | W 69-62 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | vsARST | W 82-81 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 29 | @UL | L 72-82 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 129.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 31 | @USA | L 67-69 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@EMU
EMUL 49-71
−18.5
7
@CIN
CINL 64-74
+19.5
10
vsPRES
PRESL 61-63
−5.5
17
@ASU
ASUL 62-75
+5.5
21
@SDST
SDSTL 58-105
−34.5
25
vsSAM
SAML 63-78
−9.5
26
vsNMSU
NMSUL 58-77
−6.5
2
@MER
MERL 67-78
−0.5
6
@KENN
KENNL 69-92
−8.5
13
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-73
+7.5
18
@GASO
GASOL 67-90
−13.5
20
@APP
APPW 70-63
+14.5
31
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+9.5
3
@CCU
CCUW 89-71
+24.5
8
vsAPP
APPL 50-52
−0.5
10
vsMRSH
MRSHW 81-73
+12.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 77-57
+13.5
22
vsUSM
USMW 69-62
+5.5
24
vsARST
ARSTW 82-81
+5.5
29
@UL
ULL 72-82
−11.5
31
@USA
USAL 67-69
+3.5
covered 11didn’t cover 10avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@EMU
EMUL 49-71
−29.5
7
@CIN
CINL 64-74
−13.5
10
vsPRES
PRESL 61-63
−17.5
17
@ASU
ASUL 62-75
−8.5
21
@SDST
SDSTL 58-105
+19.5
25
vsSAM
SAML 63-78
−5.5
26
vsNMSU
NMSUL 58-77
−1.5
2
@MER
MERL 67-78
−10.5
6
@KENN
KENNL 69-92
+2.5
13
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-73
+10.5
18
@GASO
GASOL 67-90
−2.5
20
@APP
APPW 70-63
−4.5
31
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+12.5
3
@CCU
CCUW 89-71
+11.5
8
vsAPP
APPL 50-52
−38.5
10
vsMRSH
MRSHW 81-73
+0.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 77-57
−21.5
22
vsUSM
USMW 69-62
−13.5
24
vsARST
ARSTW 82-81
+5.5
29
@UL
ULL 72-82
+24.5
31
@USA
USAL 67-69
−4.5
over 8under 13avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Troy
13-8 overall · 8-3 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs App State44–66
- Lvs James Madison64–73
- W@ GA Southern83–78
- W@ Old Dominion83–77
- Wvs Arkansas St99–74
4 days since their last game.
Georgia St
7-14 overall · 6-5 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ South Alabama67–69
- L@ Louisiana72–82
- Wvs Arkansas St82–81
- Wvs Southern Miss69–62
- W@ UL Monroe77–57
4 days since their last game.