KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -21.5✓ BC covered by 8.5
LOU -21.5✓ BC covered by 8.5Closing total150.5Under by 13.5
 BC | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7-8 | Record | 11-4 |
| 4-11 | ATS | 9-6 |
| 6-9 | O/U | 7-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BC 65–87 LOU · ✓ LOU (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 34 | 28 | 62 |
| LOU | 30 | 45 | 75 |
1st half: BC 34, LOU 30 (BC by 4). The model had LOU by 13.1 and a total of 70.9 (actual 64).
Team stats
| BC | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-63 37% | Field goals | 25-51 49% |
| 9-28 32% | 3-pointers | 6-21 29% |
| 7-16 44% | Free throws | 19-25 76% |
| 31 7 off | Rebounds | 42 6 off |
| 13 | Assists | 13 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| BC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Payne G | 36 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 9-15 | 4-7 |
| Donald Hand Jr. G | 33 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3-17 | 3-10 |
| Boden Kapke F | 32 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| Luka Toews G | 21 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Jayden Hastings F | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aidan Shaw F | 30 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Chase Forte G | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Caleb Steger G | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Marko Radunovic F | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jack Bailey, Jack DiDonna, Akbar Waheed III, Nick Petronio, Will Eggemeier, Jason Asemota, Kany Musungay
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Wooley G | 36 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 33 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 30 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-1 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Sananda Fru F | 28 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 8-9 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khani Rooths F | 25 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ryan Conwell, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mouhamed Camara, Mikel Brown Jr., Will Hanke
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -21.5
ModelLOU -22.2
Model edgeLOU +0.7
L BC covered
Total
Market150.5
Model151.4
Model edgeOver 0.9
L Under
Projected score
BC 64.6 · LOU 86.8
BC 62 · LOU 75
Win probability
LOU 97%
1st half
Spread
LOU -13.1
BC -4.0
Total
70.9
64 points
Projected score
BC 28.9 · LOU 42
BC 34 · LOU 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -20.5
1 → LOU
CloseLOU -21.5
1 pt toward LOU
Total
Open145.5
▲ 5
Close150.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
BC +1600 · LOU -4000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -20.5 · closed LOU -21.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -22
model LOU -22
Opened 145.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 5 upmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
BC 4–2 LOUBC leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · BC 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | LOU 84 @ BC 58 | BC +13.5 | LOU W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | BC 67 @ LOU 61 | LOU +4 | BC W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | LOU 77 @ BC 89 | BC -9.5 | BC W |
| Mar 7, 2022-23 | LOU 62 vs BC 80 | BC -5.5 | BC W |
| Jan 25, 2022-23 | LOU 65 @ BC 75 | BC -9.5 | BC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Boston College
15 games played
Straight up
7-8
47% wins
Against the spread
4-11
27% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ FAU | L 78-83 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 6 | vs CIT | W 76-47 | -15.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 11 | vs CCSU | L 59-60 | -17.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 15 | @ TEM | W 76-71 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 18 | vs HAMP | W 63-52 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Nov 21 | vs DAV | L 49-59 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 108 |
| Nov 23 | vs TULN | L 90-93 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs HARV | W 73-60 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 138.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 3 | vs LSU | L 69-78 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 6 | vs NHVN | W 67-63 | -17.5 | L −13.5 | 126.5 | O 130 |
| Dec 10 | vs MASS | L 74-76 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 22 | vs FDU | W 72-61 | -16.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 28 | vs LEM | W 72-64 | -12.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | @ GT | L 53-65 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 6 | vs NCSU | L 71-79 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@FAU
FAUL 78-83
−3.5
6
vsCIT
CITW 76-47
+13.5
11
vsCCSU
CCSUL 59-60
−18.5
15
@TEM
TEMW 76-71
+8.5
18
vsHAMP
HAMPW 63-52
−1.5
21
vsDAV
DAVL 49-59
−11.5
23
vsTULN
TULNL 90-93
−5.5
26
vsHARV
HARVW 73-60
+5.5
3
vsLSU
LSUL 69-78
−1.5
6
vsNHVN
NHVNW 67-63
−13.5
10
vsMASS
MASSL 74-76
−3.5
22
vsFDU
FDUW 72-61
−5.5
28
vsLEM
LEMW 72-64
−4.5
3
@GT
GTL 53-65
−5.5
6
vsNCSU
NCSUL 71-79
+3.5
covered 4didn’t cover 11avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@FAU
FAUL 78-83
+12.5
6
vsCIT
CITW 76-47
−21.5
11
vsCCSU
CCSUL 59-60
−17.5
15
@TEM
TEMW 76-71
+4.5
18
vsHAMP
HAMPW 63-52
−20.5
21
vsDAV
DAVL 49-59
−32.5
23
vsTULN
TULNL 90-93
+42.5
26
vsHARV
HARVW 73-60
−5.5
3
vsLSU
LSUL 69-78
−2.5
6
vsNHVN
NHVNW 67-63
+3.5
10
vsMASS
MASSL 74-76
+6.5
22
vsFDU
FDUW 72-61
−8.5
28
vsLEM
LEMW 72-64
−10.5
3
@GT
GTL 53-65
−27.5
6
vsNCSU
NCSUL 71-79
+8.5
over 6under 9avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
15 games played
Straight up
11-4
73% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-8
47% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
over 7under 8avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Boston College
7-8 overall · 0-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs NC State71–79
- L@ Georgia Tech53–65
- Wvs Le Moyne72–64
- Wvs FDU72–61
- Lvs UMass74–76
4 days since their last game.
Louisville
11-4 overall · 1-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke73–84
- L@ Stanford76–80
- W@ California90–70
- Wvs Montana94–54
- L@ Tennessee62–83
4 days since their last game.