Pete Hanna Center · at Samford · Conference game
Closing line
MER -1.5✓ SAM covered by 21.5
MER -1.5✓ SAM covered by 21.5Closing total160.5Under by 42.5
| MER | This season | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | Record | 10-12 |
| 16-5 | ATS | 12-10 |
| 11-10 | O/U | 13-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MER 81–79 SAM · ✗ MER (55%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 22 | 27 | 49 |
| SAM | 40 | 29 | 69 |
1st half: MER 22, SAM 40 (SAM by 18). The model had MER by 1.0 and a total of 74.9 (actual 62).
Team stats
| MER | SAM | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-59 27% | Field goals | 24-50 48% |
| 4-17 24% | 3-pointers | 6-19 32% |
| 13-17 76% | Free throws | 15-20 75% |
| 36 10 off | Rebounds | 39 4 off |
| 7 | Assists | 7 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MER | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baraka Okojie G | 35 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 9-17 | 2-4 |
| Armani Mighty C | 33 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 4-13 | 0-0 |
| Brady Shoulders G | 32 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Zaire Williams G | 28 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Kyle Cuffe Jr. G | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Connor Serven F | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Quinton Perkins II G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Tristan Gross G | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bendji Pierre F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| TJ Grant G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Cole G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Pero Zubac F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Braeden Carlsen G | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Petras Padegimas, NJ Nganga, Alex Koch
| SAM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Norris G | 30 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-9 | 1-7 |
| Cade Norris G | 30 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Jadin Booth G | 29 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Isaiah Campbell-Finch G | 29 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Faulkner F | 23 | 16 | 12 | 0 | 8-12 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kam Martin G | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Will Shaver C | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Zion Wilburn G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaxon Pollard F | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Judson Bjornstad F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Harrison F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cooper Davenport, JD Gossett, Corey Brown, DaJion Humphrey, Joshua Hughes, Zach Lamey
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMER -1.5
ModelMER -1.4
Model edgeSAM +0.1
W SAM covered
Total
Market160.5
Model160.1
Model edgeUnder 0.4
W Under
Projected score
MER 80.8 · SAM 79.3
MER 49 · SAM 69
Win probability
MER 55%
1st half
Spread
MER -1.0
SAM -18.0
Total
74.9
62 points
Projected score
MER 37.9 · SAM 37
MER 22 · SAM 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMER -1.5
no move
CloseMER -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open162.5
▼ 2
Close160.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
MER -110 · SAM -110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MER -1.5 · unchangedmodel MER -1.5 matches the line
model MER -1.5 = line ✓
Opened 162.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 2 downmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| SAM | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MER 2–7 SAMSAM leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · SAM has won the last 3 meetings · MER 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | MER 79 @ SAM 100 | SAM -10.5 | SAM W |
| Jan 15, 2024-25 | SAM 75 @ MER 74 | MER +5.5 | MER W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | MER 57 vs SAM 70 | SAM -9.5 | SAM W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | SAM 84 @ MER 88 | MER +10.5 | MER W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | MER 80 @ SAM 87 | SAM -12.5 | MER W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mercer
21 games played
Straight up
12-9
57% wins
Against the spread
16-5
76% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-10
52% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TENN | L 61-76 | +28.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 9 | vs LIP | W 92-77 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 15 | @ WIN | L 69-105 | +2.5 | L −33.5 | 162.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 22 | @ EKU | W 95-83 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 26 | vs APP | W 75-67 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | @ ELON | W 91-84 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 2 | vs GAST | W 78-67 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | @ CLEM | L 63-70 | +22.5 | W +15.5 | 152.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 17 | @ UCF | L 63-81 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | @ WSU | L 78-84 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | @ FUR | L 72-74 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 3 | @ ETSU | L 71-77 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vs CIT | W 101-63 | -16.5 | W +21.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 10 | vs WOF | W 109-97 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 206 |
| Jan 15 | @ VMI | W 77-67 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @ UNCG | W 102-92 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Jan 21 | vs WCU | W 88-76 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 24 | @WOF | L 77-80 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 29 | vsUNCG | W 95-77 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vsVMI | W 95-81 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 5 | @ UTC | L 75-79 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
+13.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
−33.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+16.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
+1.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+9.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
+0.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
+15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−1.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+1.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
+0.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
+1.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+21.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+8.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
+1.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+4.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+3.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−5.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+7.5
31
vsVMI
VMIW 95-81
−4.5
5
@UTC
UTCL 75-79
−8.5
covered 16didn’t cover 5avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
−6.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
+11.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+14.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
−0.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+15.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
−10.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
−19.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−16.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+10.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
−8.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
−0.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+16.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+49.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
−9.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+38.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+5.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−0.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+13.5
31
vsVMI
VMIW 95-81
+22.5
5
@UTC
UTCL 75-79
−1.5
over 11under 10avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Samford
22 games played
Straight up
10-12
45% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TULN | L 72-85 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | vs SCST | W 82-72 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 12 | @ TXSO | W 93-90 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 14 | @ ARK | L 75-79 | +24.5 | W +20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ CARK | W 84-77 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 19 | vs FGCU | L 62-77 | -5.5 | L −20.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 21 | @ NMSU | L 72-81 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vsGAST | W 78-63 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs UVU | L 45-89 | +7.5 | L −36.5 | 148.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 5 | @ VCU | L 57-83 | +19.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 7 | vs COR | W 93-90 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 1 | @VMI | W 78-58 | -6.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | @UNCG | L 82-89 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 7 | vsWCU | W 82-77 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 10 | @UTC | L 79-88 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 14 | vsFUR | L 73-77 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | vsETSU | L 75-76 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 21 | @WOF | L 78-88 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vsUTC | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 29 | @FUR | L 73-78 | +5.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 1 | @WCU | W 88-74 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 5 | vsCIT | W 78-64 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TULN
TULNL 72-85
−5.5
7
vsSCST
SCSTW 82-72
−4.5
12
@TXSO
TXSOW 93-90
+0.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-79
+20.5
16
@CARK
CARKW 84-77
+0.5
19
vsFGCU
FGCUL 62-77
−20.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 72-81
−0.5
25
vsGAST
GASTW 78-63
+9.5
26
vsUVU
UVUL 45-89
−36.5
5
@VCU
VCUL 57-83
−6.5
7
vsCOR
CORW 93-90
+0.5
1
@VMI
VMIW 78-58
+13.5
3
@UNCG
UNCGL 82-89
−9.5
7
vsWCU
WCUW 82-77
+0.5
10
@UTC
UTCL 79-88
−7.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 73-77
−2.5
17
vsETSU
ETSUL 75-76
+2.5
21
@WOF
WOFL 78-88
−6.5
24
vsUTC
UTCW 75-64
+6.5
29
@FUR
FURL 73-78
+0.5
1
@WCU
WCUW 88-74
+12.5
5
vsCIT
CITW 78-64
+0.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TULN
TULNL 72-85
+2.5
7
vsSCST
SCSTW 82-72
−0.5
12
@TXSO
TXSOW 93-90
+29.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-79
−4.5
16
@CARK
CARKW 84-77
+9.5
19
vsFGCU
FGCUL 62-77
−15.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 72-81
+7.5
25
vsGAST
GASTW 78-63
−5.5
26
vsUVU
UVUL 45-89
−14.5
5
@VCU
VCUL 57-83
−14.5
7
vsCOR
CORW 93-90
+16.5
1
@VMI
VMIW 78-58
−18.5
3
@UNCG
UNCGL 82-89
+19.5
7
vsWCU
WCUW 82-77
+5.5
10
@UTC
UTCL 79-88
+18.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 73-77
+0.5
17
vsETSU
ETSUL 75-76
+2.5
21
@WOF
WOFL 78-88
+11.5
24
vsUTC
UTCW 75-64
−13.5
29
@FUR
FURL 73-78
+1.5
1
@WCU
WCUW 88-74
+7.5
5
vsCIT
CITW 78-64
−4.5
over 13under 9avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mercer
12-9 overall · 7-4 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Chattanooga75–79
- Wvs VMI95–81
- Wvs UNC Greensboro95–77
- L@ Wofford77–80
- Wvs W Carolina88–76
2 days since their last game.
Samford
10-12 overall · 5-6 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs The Citadel78–64
- W@ W Carolina88–74
- L@ Furman73–78
- Wvs Chattanooga75–64
- L@ Wofford78–88
2 days since their last game.