Food City Center · at Tennessee · Conference game
Closing line
TENN -5.5✓ TENN covered by 2.5
TENN -5.5✓ TENN covered by 2.5Closing total147.5Under by 1.5
 AUB | This season | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| 14-7 | Record | 14-6 |
| 12-9 | ATS | 7-13 |
| 13-8 | O/U | 13-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AUB 77–79 TENN · ✓ TENN (58%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| TENN | 41 | 36 | 77 |
1st half: AUB 31, TENN 41 (TENN by 10). The model had TENN by 1.2 and a total of 73.0 (actual 72).
Team stats
| AUB | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-63 38% | Field goals | 24-54 44% |
| 7-31 23% | 3-pointers | 4-13 31% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 25-31 81% |
| 30 12 off | Rebounds | 46 17 off |
| 13 | Assists | 17 |
| 9 | Steals | 7 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 23 | Fouls | 19 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 35 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 4-14 | 2-11 |
| Keyshawn Hall F | 35 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 7-17 | 3-9 |
| Kevin Overton G | 30 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 27 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 23 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elyjah Freeman G | 28 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Filip Jovic C | 17 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Abdul Bashir, Emeka Opurum, Jeremiah Bowman, Bradley Pearson, Drake Cardwell, Joah Shay, Simon Walker, Reed Trapp, CJ Williams, Kaden Magwood
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Ament F | 37 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 4-16 | 2-6 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 33 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 30 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 29 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 27 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Amari Evans G | 24 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Amaree Abram G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Troy Henderson G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Campbell Duncan, Ethan Burg, Gavin Paull, Clarence Massamba, Felix Okpara, Grant Hurst, Cade Phillips
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTENN -5.5
ModelTENN -2.2
Model edgeAUB +3.3
L TENN covered
Total
Market147.5
Model155.9
Model edgeOver 8.4
L Under
Projected score
AUB 76.9 · TENN 79.1
AUB 69 · TENN 77
Win probability
TENN 58%
1st half
Spread
TENN -1.2
TENN -10.0
Total
73.0
72 points
Projected score
AUB 35.9 · TENN 37.1
AUB 31 · TENN 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTENN -6.5
1 → AUB
CloseTENN -5.5
1 pt toward AUB
Total
Open148.5
▼ 1
Close147.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
AUB +205 · TENN -250
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TENN -6.5 · closed TENN -5.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel TENN -2
model TENN -2
Opened 148.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 downmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| TENN | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
AUB 2–4 TENNTENN leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · AUB 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | TENN 70 vs AUB 65 | AUB -5.5 | TENN W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | TENN 51 @ AUB 53 | AUB -6.5 | TENN W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | AUB 84 @ TENN 92 | TENN -6.5 | TENN W |
| Mar 4, 2022-23 | TENN 70 @ AUB 79 | AUB -2.5 | AUB W |
| Feb 4, 2022-23 | AUB 43 @ TENN 46 | TENN -9.5 | AUB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Auburn
21 games played
Straight up
14-7
67% wins
Against the spread
12-9
57% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-8
62% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs SJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs NCSU | W 83-73 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARIZ | L 68-97 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTC | W 92-78 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs PUR | L 60-88 | +7.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs QUC | W 106-65 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 3 | @ UGA | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | vs TA&M | L 88-90 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARK | W 95-73 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | @ MIZ | L 74-84 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | vs SC | W 71-67 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ MISS | W 78-66 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @ FLA | W 76-67 | +11.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | vs TEX | W 88-82 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
+4.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
−17.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
−5.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−20.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
+15.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+2.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
−8.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
+19.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
−11.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−9.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
+8.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
+20.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
−0.5
covered 12didn’t cover 9avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
−6.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
+2.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
+19.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−4.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
−0.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+30.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
+9.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
−1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
+4.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−14.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
−7.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
−16.5
28
vsTEX
TEXW 88-82
+15.5
over 13under 8avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tennessee
20 games played
Straight up
14-6
70% wins
Against the spread
7-13
35% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-7
65% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vsHOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vsTEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vsTA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vs UK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 13avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
over 13under 7avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Auburn
14-7 overall · 5-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas88–82
- W@ Florida76–67
- W@ Ole Miss78–66
- Wvs South Carolina71–67
- L@ Missouri74–84
3 days since their last game.
Tennessee
14-6 overall · 4-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Georgia86–85
- W@ Alabama79–73
- Lvs Kentucky78–80
- Wvs Texas A&M87–82
- L@ Florida67–91
3 days since their last game.