Liberty Arena (VA) · at Liberty · Conference game
Closing line
LIB -9.5✓ MOST covered by 6.5
LIB -9.5✓ MOST covered by 6.5Closing total140.5Over by 14.5
 MOST | This season | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| 10-9 | Record | 16-3 |
| 11-8 | ATS | 10-9 |
| 10-9 | O/U | 10-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MOST 66–75 LIB · ✓ LIB (80%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 38 | 38 | 76 |
| LIB | 42 | 37 | 79 |
1st half: MOST 38, LIB 42 (LIB by 4). The model had LIB by 5.5 and a total of 66.2 (actual 80).
Team stats
| MOST | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-56 48% | Field goals | 27-49 55% |
| 8-17 47% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 14-26 54% | Free throws | 18-28 64% |
| 34 12 off | Rebounds | 28 5 off |
| 14 | Assists | 22 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MOST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobi Williams G | 35 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Keith Palek III F | 29 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 9-17 | 3-4 |
| Trey Williams Jr. G | 25 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Michael Osei-Bonsu F | 25 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 6-12 | 0-0 |
| Antwan Burnett G | 24 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zaxton King G | 26 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Melakih Cunningham G | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Tyrique Brooks G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Cameron Boone F | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Darrion Sutton F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Collin Clark, Ryder Cheesman, Logan Epes, Amar Kuljuhovic
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Metheny G | 37 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-7 |
| Zach Cleveland F | 37 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 8-13 | 0-0 |
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 37 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 3-5 |
| Colin Porter G | 35 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| JJ Harper G | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josh Smith F | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Zander Carter G | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Jones Jr. F | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
Did not play: Brady Kester, Torr Sorensen, Drew Grimes, TJ Drain, JC Shirer Jr., Zander Yates, Isaiah Ihnen
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLIB -9.5
ModelLIB -9.4
Model edgeMOST +0.1
W MOST covered
Total
Market140.5
Model141.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
MOST 66 · LIB 75.4
MOST 76 · LIB 79
Win probability
LIB 80%
1st half
Spread
LIB -5.5
LIB -4.0
Total
66.2
80 points
Projected score
MOST 30.3 · LIB 35.9
MOST 38 · LIB 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIB -8.5
1 → LIB
CloseLIB -9.5
1 pt toward LIB
Total
Open138.5
▲ 2
Close140.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MOST +370 · LIB -485
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIB -8.5 · closed LIB -9.5 · moved 1 toward LIBmodel LIB -9.5 matches the line
model LIB -9.5 = line ✓
Opened 138.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 2 upmodel 141.5
model 141.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% |
| LIB | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Missouri St
19 games played
Straight up
10-9
53% wins
Against the spread
11-8
58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-9
53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | vs ARST | L 85-86 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 15 | @ UTA | L 49-67 | +3.5 | L −14.5 | 143.5 | U 116 |
| Nov 22 | vs RGV | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 24 | vs LIU | L 61-75 | -4.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | @ TLSA | L 74-98 | +7.5 | L −16.5 | 142.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 12 | @ XAV | L 57-75 | +18.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 16 | vs ORU | W 63-62 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 23 | vs LIN | W 70-65 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 29 | @ DEL | W 61-43 | -1.5 | W +16.5 | 131.5 | U 104 |
| Jan 2 | vs UTEP | W 79-55 | -3.5 | W +20.5 | 131.5 | O 134 |
| Jan 4 | vs NMSU | W 89-82 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 7 | @ KENN | L 80-90 | +6.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 10 | vs FIU | W 79-71 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 14 | @ WKU | L 72-87 | +6.5 | L −8.5 | 148.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 17 | @ MTSU | L 87-90 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 137.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 22 | @NMSU | W 84-75 | +6.5 | W +15.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @UTEP | W 62-57 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 28 | vs SHSU | L 71-80 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 31 | vs JXST | W 74-67 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
11
vsARST
ARSTL 85-86
−2.5
15
@UTA
UTAL 49-67
−14.5
22
vsRGV
RGVW 74-67
+3.5
24
vsLIU
LIUL 61-75
−18.5
6
@TLSA
TLSAL 74-98
−16.5
12
@XAV
XAVL 57-75
+0.5
16
vsORU
ORUW 63-62
−3.5
23
vsLIN
LINW 70-65
+1.5
29
@DEL
DELW 61-43
+16.5
2
vsUTEP
UTEPW 79-55
+20.5
4
vsNMSU
NMSUW 89-82
+5.5
7
@KENN
KENNL 80-90
−3.5
10
vsFIU
FIUW 79-71
+5.5
14
@WKU
WKUL 72-87
−8.5
17
@MTSU
MTSUL 87-90
+2.5
22
@NMSU
NMSUW 84-75
+15.5
24
@UTEP
UTEPW 62-57
+3.5
28
vsSHSU
SHSUL 71-80
−10.5
31
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-67
+2.5
covered 11didn’t cover 8avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
11
vsARST
ARSTL 85-86
+18.5
15
@UTA
UTAL 49-67
−27.5
22
vsRGV
RGVW 74-67
−8.5
24
vsLIU
LIUL 61-75
−9.5
6
@TLSA
TLSAL 74-98
+29.5
12
@XAV
XAVL 57-75
−19.5
16
vsORU
ORUW 63-62
−21.5
23
vsLIN
LINW 70-65
−10.5
29
@DEL
DELW 61-43
−27.5
2
vsUTEP
UTEPW 79-55
+2.5
4
vsNMSU
NMSUW 89-82
+36.5
7
@KENN
KENNL 80-90
+17.5
10
vsFIU
FIUW 79-71
−3.5
14
@WKU
WKUL 72-87
+10.5
17
@MTSU
MTSUL 87-90
+39.5
22
@NMSU
NMSUW 84-75
+14.5
24
@UTEP
UTEPW 62-57
−20.5
28
vsSHSU
SHSUL 71-80
+2.5
31
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-67
+5.5
over 10under 9avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Liberty
19 games played
Straight up
16-3
84% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-9
53% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs COFC | W 90-75 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 9 | vs FAU | W 88-68 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs UVM | W 79-73 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TOW | L 69-72 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs BRAD | L 64-74 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | vs COPP | W 92-50 | -30.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 10 | @ NCSU | L 45-85 | +12.5 | L −27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 20 | @ DAY | W 64-61 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 28 | @FIU | W 97-94 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Jan 2 | vsKENN | W 81-73 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 4 | vsJXST | W 78-69 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 8 | @ LT | W 72-56 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 10 | @SHSU | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 15 | vsNMSU | W 73-71 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vsUTEP | W 80-69 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 21 | @WKU | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 24 | vsDEL | W 67-51 | -15.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 29 | @MTSU | W 81-65 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 136.5 | O 146 |
| Feb 4 | @DEL | W 75-69 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 132.5 | O 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−14.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
+11.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−27.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
+12.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
−1.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
+0.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
−0.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
+11.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+6.5
15
vsNMSU
NMSUW 73-71
−6.5
17
vsUTEP
UTEPW 80-69
−2.5
21
@WKU
WKUW 76-69
+5.5
24
vsDEL
DELW 67-51
+0.5
29
@MTSU
MTSUW 81-65
+14.5
4
@DEL
DELW 75-69
−4.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−6.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
−1.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−19.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
−17.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
+38.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
−4.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
+12.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
−7.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+1.5
15
vsNMSU
NMSUW 73-71
−1.5
17
vsUTEP
UTEPW 80-69
+11.5
21
@WKU
WKUW 76-69
−3.5
24
vsDEL
DELW 67-51
−16.5
29
@MTSU
MTSUW 81-65
+9.5
4
@DEL
DELW 75-69
+11.5
over 10under 9avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Missouri St
10-9 overall · 7-4 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jax State74–67
- Lvs Sam Houston71–80
- W@ UTEP62–57
- W@ New Mexico St84–75
- L@ MTSU87–90
A week or more of rest.
Liberty
16-3 overall · 11-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Delaware75–69
- W@ MTSU81–65
- Wvs Delaware67–51
- W@ Western KY76–69
- Wvs UTEP80–69
3 days since their last game.