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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

3,141 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games3,141100%By halftime512%In Q346515%In Q41,05434%In OT361%Stayed under1,53549%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands33611%Over cashed44714%Leader lost the game2468%
51% went over. Of the 1,606 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Cover changed hands in the last 5 minutes: 336 games

2023–2026 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 7
 HOU -4 62.5 10174567 Q4 OKST Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 32–35
2026 · Week 7
 ORST -18.5 52.5 17375078 Q4 WSU Q1
Late cover flip
 30–48
2026 · Week 7
 WMU -7.5 42.5 7142135 U CMU Q4
Late cover flip
 21–14
2026 · Week 7
 BUFF -6.5 43.5 1023303643 U BUFF OT
Late cover flip
 18–25
2026 · Week 7
 WVU -1.5 64.5 7354987 Q4 WVU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2026 · Week 7
 ECU -5.5 49.5 717233447 U UAB Q3
Late cover flip Lead lost
 17–30
2026 · Week 7
 JXST -3 44.5 21344851 Q3 Push
Late cover flip
 24–27
2026 · Week 7
 DEL -1.5 49.5 8284963 Q4 MTSU Q3
Late cover flip Lead lost
 30–33
2026 · Week 6
 JMU -7 51.5 10163051 U GASO Q4
Late cover flip
 27–24
2026 · Week 6
 ILL -2.5 48.5 1027406275 Q4 MSU Q4
Late cover flip
 38–37
2026 · Week 6
 NAVY -3 47.5 21344660 Q4 NAVY Q4
Late cover flip
 26–34
2026 · Week 6
 M-OH -6 44.5 21242739 U MASS Q4
Late cover flip
 20–19
2026 · Week 6
 BYU -11.5 46.5 7172434 U BYU Q3
Late cover flip
 10–24
2026 · Week 5
 BYU -5.5 48.5 0141727 U BYU Q4
Late cover flip
 17–10
2026 · Week 5
 SC -2.5 52.5 1430445469 Q4 UK Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 35–34
2026 · Week 5
 TENN -6 54.5 0102438 U TENN Q3
Late cover flip
 14–24
2026 · Week 5
 ISU -3 53.5 14355687 Q3 Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2026 · Week 5
 UNT -3 56.5 327557689 Q4 TLSA Q4
Late cover flip
 45–44
2026 · Week 4
 AFA -4.5 50.5 1320305469 Q4 NEV Q1
Late cover flip Late over
 36–33
2026 · Week 4
 MSST -3.5 58.5 14244155 U MSST Q4
Late cover flip
 24–31
2026 · Week 4
 JXST -7 50.5 3173336 U JXST Q4
Late cover flip
 13–23
2026 · Week 4
 PSU -9.5 43.5 3243044 Q4 WIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 24–20
NCCU @ ECU
2026 · Week 4
 ECU -37.5 58.5 10454551 U NCCU Q4
Late cover flip
 9–42
2026 · Week 4
 MICH -4.5 39.5 14172039 U IOWA Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 20–19
2026 · Week 4
 M-OH -2.5 52.5 14284245 U M-OH Q4
Late cover flip
 21–24
2026 · Week 4
 TEX -5.5 54.5 10132337 U TENN Q3
Late cover flip
 20–17
2026 · Week 4
 TTU -34.5 55.5 7354963 Q4 TTU Q4
Late cover flip
 14–49
2026 · Week 4
 BAY -8.5 54.5 3131936 U BAY Q4
Late cover flip
 13–23
BUCK @ PITT
2026 · Week 4
 PITT -54.5 63.5 14354259 U PITT Q4
Late cover flip
 0–59
2026 · Week 4
 ARMY -4 48.5 14142838 U Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 21–17
2026 · Week 3
 TCU -18.5 56.5 7212838 U TCU Q4
Late cover flip
 7–31
ETAM @ TLSA
2026 · Week 3
 TLSA -41.5 55.5 7142842 U TLSA Q4
Late cover flip
 0–42
2026 · Week 3
 TENN -35.5 60.5 18243851 U KENN Q1
Late cover flip
 9–42
2026 · Week 3
 USA -7 49.5 21315277 Q3 OHIO Q4
Late cover flip
 36–41
2026 · Week 3
 MICH -34.5 48.5 7315969 Q3 MICH Q4
Late cover flip
 17–52
DUQ @ WSU
2026 · Week 3
 WSU -38.5 51.5 14214255 Q4 WSU Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 7–48
2026 · Week 3
 VAN -3 50.5 14243866 Q4 VAN Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 31–35
2026 · Week 3
 CLEM -3 44.5 17233248 Q4 CLEM Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 20–28
2026 · Week 3
 TTU -7.5 52.5 10314154 Q4 HOU Q1
Late cover flip Late over
 26–28
2026 · Week 2
 UCLA -13.5 53.5 00738 U UCLA Q4
Late cover flip
 10–28
ILST @ NIU
2026 · Week 2
 ILST -2.5 47.5 14383852 Q4 ILST Q1
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 28–24
2026 · Week 2
 OHIO -1.5 48.5 731384856 OT OHIO OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 27–29
2026 · Week 2
 PITT -7.5 55.5 3121219 U UCF Q4
Late cover flip
 7–12
2026 · Week 2
 SYR -4 56.5 3193239 U CAL Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 21–18
2026 · Week 2
 WAKE -2.5 51.5 1427334674 OT PUR Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 38–36
2026 · Week 2
 ARMY -3 45.5 7212852 Q4 USF Q3
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 28–24
2026 · Week 1
 SMU -3 52.5 14273451 U Push
Late cover flip
 27–24
2026 · Week 1
 ND -21 45.5 13234054 Q4 ND Q4
Late cover flip
 13–41
2026 · Week 1
 MISS -6.5 54.5 3164879 Q4 LOU Q1
Late cover flip
 38–41
SDST @ NU
2026 · Week 1
 NU -14 49.5 7162952 Q4 NU Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 18–34
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 336

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 1,568
Q2 16% 494
Q3 15% 471
Q4 18% 556
OT 1% 18
Push 1% 34
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 69% of 2,929 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 72% of 2,988 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over516100% 516
1–319295% 182
4–729586% 255
8–1026170% 184
11–1434558% 200
15–1727041% 110
18–2133927% 92
22+9237% 67
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.